The 2024 election is a once-in-a-decade opportunity

11 Jul 2023

In January 2023, Anglican Archbishop Thabo Makgoba wrote that ‘we need an alliance of leaders and forces to say: Enough is enough!’, pointing out that ‘a plethora of independent movements is not enough’. But six months later ‘a plethora of independent movements’ is all we still have. Time is running out if we are to change the balance of power in the 2024 elections.

It is likely that the next general election in South Africa will take place within the next 12 months. Already, it is much talked about. New parties are being formed, such as the Progress Party, focusing on unemployment and jobs mainly in the Western Cape. One of the new kids on the block, Rise Mzansi, has declared that “2024 is our 1994”.

Several weeks ago seven opposition parties, led by the DA, announced an election pact and the holding of a national convention in August.

Anticipation of the 2024 election grows daily as people realise how badly the ANC is failing the country on every score. Conversations and convenings to discuss the crisis and ways to save South Africa take place weekly, often overlapping, but rarely resulting in decisive resolutions. Summits and conferences abound.

What is worrying, however, is that the people who count the most in an election – the overwhelming majority who make up the poor in South Africa, the 18 million people who depend one way or another on social grants, the people who bear the brunt of the ANC’s misrule – are largely being left out of the conversation.

Truth be told, although many people claim to speak for the poor, very few speak with the poor.

Leaving the poor out of solutions activism and democratic conversation leaves people prone to populism, ethnic mobilisation and misinformation. It compounds voter alienation, especially among young people. Ironically it risks cementing the very political status quo that all the middle-class chattering is so desperate to get away from.

It’s not that the poor are idle, apathetic or don’t understand what’s going on.

Civil society remains stuck in its silos inflicting mostly pin pricks on a government that has little shame and has learnt how to manage its slings and arrows.

Maverick Citizen reports daily on a multitude of initiatives that are driven by good people and organisations, aiming to build solidarity and security, protect peace and dignity. Visit The Actionists to meet some of these people and hear their ideas.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Keeping the lights of hope on — harnessing the real power of South Africa’s people

From what we witness we have no doubt that good people far outnumber those who are corrupt and criminal.

But at this moment, good people in South Africa lack a galvanising vision to cohere around. In January 2023, Archbishop Thabo Makgoba wrote that “we need an alliance of leaders and forces to say: ‘Enough is enough!’”, adding that “a plethora of independent movements is not enough”.

But six months later “a plethora of independent movements” is what we still have.

Many civil society organisations are doing incredible work to defend human rights. The victory achieved in the Pretoria High Court by the Helen Suzman Foundation, benefiting 178,000 people who hold Zimbabwean Exemption Permits is the latest example. The work of SECTION27 ensuring access to cancer treatment is another. The list is long.

Many individuals go beyond the call of duty as health workers, teachers, social workers and police.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Baby kidnapped from Gqeberha mall 7 months ago found by alert Dora Nginza Hospital social worker, admin clerk

But civil society is simultaneously failing to project a forward vision, it remains stuck in its silos inflicting mostly pin pricks on a government that has little shame and has learnt how to manage its slings and arrows.

Faith-based organisations are, in the words of one veteran priest, “thunderously silent”, only occasionally popping their heads above the pulpit. Where’s the spirit of Desmond Tutu? one often wonders. Will there ever be another Kairos Moment for the churches?

The danger is that time is running out.

A (very hard to find) survey carried out by the Human Sciences Research Council for the Electoral Commission, titled Democracy’s Dividend: Results from the Voter Participation Survey (2021), is a gold mine of information and reveals the scale of the challenge. It found that of people who were eligible to vote at the time of the survey:

Slightly more than a quarter (28%) said they had never voted before;

(Only) about a quarter said they were regular voters and 26% identified as irregular voters;

Older people were less likely to report being regular voters than their younger counterparts; and

Very low levels of self-reported regular voting were recorded by age-eligible Generation Z citizens, and almost everyone in this cohort (98%) said they had never voted.

We are already in the second half of 2023. While there are commendable but isolated voter registration campaigns, such as that organised by the Ground Work Collective in KwaZulu-Natal, by now one would have hoped to see mass voter registration campaigns in every province; NGOs and NGO networks fanning out into communities to instigate conversations, link up with local campaigns and offer constitutional education; plans and targets for how to persuade millions of young people to vote.

If civil society acts collectively and early enough there is a chance to define the critical issues and their solutions so that when political parties start their campaigns, people will be armed with hard information.

If civil society acts collectively and early enough there is time for voter education, so that people are less likely to be fooled by populist promises once again.

If civil society acts collectively and early enough there is time to talk about the Constitution and how the structure of government and all its policies should empower the poor through socioeconomic rights.

If civil society does not get more ambitious, more coordinated and more connected the opportunity presented by 2024 will be lost.

Campaigns like these will build people’s power in their communities. They are not just about the moment in 2024 when more than 30 million people could (theoretically) mark their ballots (although that should be galvanising civil society). They are about people’s power. Done effectively, their legacy could be a society more informed, more connected, and more able to demand social justice and accountability after the election.

There is lots to learn from campaigns and activists in other parts of the world, such as the Working Families Party in the US, where voter mobilisation in marginalised communities never stops.

This week, My Vote Counts is organising a meeting of social movements and NGOs titled “Towards the 2024 elections: Threats and Opportunities”. We hope it is more than another talk-shop.

The 2024 election is a once-in-a-decade opportunity. But leaving 2024 to 2024 will be leaving it too late – 2024 will yield nothing unless the groundwork is done.

While we fiddle and faff, sit in one conference after another, the corrupt continue to steal and disrupt.

If civil society does not get more ambitious, more coordinated and more connected the opportunity presented by 2024 will be lost. Then we will be in for five more years of corruption, dysfunction and deepening inequality.

We will have missed the opportunity democracy presented us. We will have only ourselves to blame.

But if civil society does act, there is an opportunity to recapture our country and tie it once more to a mandate for equality and social justice.

Which will it be? DM

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The danger is that time is running out.