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South Africa

A 2024 Scramble for South Africa begins – party cooperation deals to emerge after Sunday

As election results on Friday afternoon, 31 May,  continued to reflect the ANC’s loss of a national majority for the first time since 1994, political parties moved into a series of key meetings over the weekend to decide what’s next.
A 2024 Scramble for South Africa begins – party cooperation deals to emerge after Sunday

The friendly verbal jostling among politicians on the floor of the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) national results centre belies serious considerations for South Africa’s governance. Away from the banter unfolded meetings to determine what the criteria, bottom lines and top demands would be for a coalition – or a cooperation deal.

On the back of Friday evening’s numbers, with 85% of the vote published, such cooperation would be needed nationally, in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and in the Northern Cape, the first province to complete the count.

At 9pm on Friday, the IEC results showed the ANC at 41.23% nationally, the DA at 22.25%, the MK party at 13%, beating the EFF, which received 9.4%, to be the third-placed party. The IFP secured 3.52%. 

Read more in Daily Maverick: Elections dashboard

While the loss of the ANC’s majority was the talking point, another key takeaway was the rise of populist and anti-progressive political parties such as the MK party and the Patriotic Alliance (PA), which at 2.2% multiplied its support from the 0.4% achieved in the 2019 elections.

The ANC is expected to hold its national executive committee (NEC) meeting on Sunday. The DA was meeting fellow opposition parties in the Multi-Party Charter, and then on Sunday its federal executive meets to make those decisions on cooperation. The IFP is planning its top-level meeting also on Sunday.

While it would be unlikely for the DA to go into a coalition with the ANC, either provincially or nationally, a cooperation or a so-called confidence-and-supply agreement could well be an option. This could be represented to the DA base as a necessity to keep out the so-called doomsday ANC-EFF government, in line with the opposition party’s 2024 election campaign.

The IFP may well be open to closer cooperation under a government of national unity as it indicated a couple of months ago.

Hung provinces


The deal making may well be between the ANC, DA and IFP nationally and in KwaZulu-Natal, and even Gauteng, given how the election result numbers stood late Friday.

In KwaZulu-Natal, where the ANC support tanked to 18% from the 54.2% polled in 2019, that party had already reached out to the IFP late on Thursday. The IFP in KwaZulu-Natal got 19.1% and the DA 12.5% by 9pm on Friday evening.

On the other side stands the MK party, which even though it had clinched 44.3% support by Friday evening, still needed a partner. It would need the EFF and others to take it over the 50% plus one threshold in the province. Whether the EFF would be up for this remains to be seen.

In the Northern Cape where the ANC came in at a sliver below 50%, an arrangement with a one-seat party would be sufficient to retain control.

Only in Limpopo did the ANC perform in line with previous elections – 75% late Friday, close enough to the 75.49% it received in the 2019 elections and just a little less than the 78.6% it received in 2014. The next best ANC province was the Eastern Cape with a percentage in the mid-60s, a dip from the 68.7% obtained in the 2019 elections. The ANC held the Free State and North West, and by late Friday evening it sneaked past the 50% threshold in Mpumalanga, where the MK party also ate at its support.

In Gauteng, where an ANC-EFF deal was widely speculated about ahead of the 29 May poll results, the numbers late on Friday were such that this would not be possible without a significant third partner. Again, an ANC, DA, IFP deal would bring governance stability. The ANC obtained 35.5%, the DA 27.5% and the EFF 12.28%.

Whether politicians over the next few days would seal such a deal remains to be seen; they have 14 days from when the IEC declares the election results. Political parties remained guarded ahead of their respective weekend meetings. 

Below expectations


But on Friday at the IEC national results centre at Gallagher Estate in Midrand all that seemed a long way off. While the ANC may have been the focus, given the 29 May results, other political parties also had to face difficult questions.

ActionSA did not do as well as hyped at 1.1% nationally by Friday evening. Nor did Rise Mzansi. None of the new parties really featured, nor did the independents, although veteran activist Zackie Achmat standing for the National Assembly from the Western Cape received the most votes at just over 8,000.

On Friday afternoon, the national picture, according to the Krutham Mosaic model, meant the ANC would get 168 of the National Assembly seats, followed by the DA at 87, or three more than previously, and the MK party at 48 seats followed by the EFF at 40, losing four.

The IFP was pencilled in with 12 seats in the House as was the Patriotic Alliance while ActionSA has six. The newcomers that did make it, according to the model from the Johannesburg-based financial services sector consultancy, were Rise Mzansi and Bosa with two seats each.

These seat calculations are not final, as only the IEC will declare the results, possibly on Sunday.

Next steps


Meanwhile, Parliament is doing its bit to prepare for the next steps. Once the IEC declares the 2024 election results and legislature seats – this is expected on Sunday at 3pm – the National Assembly must sit within 14 days as stipulated by the Constitution. 

The first step is to swear in 400 MPs, which is done by the chief justice, and then to elect the President. It is understood the venue for this would be the Cape Town Convention Centre.

Read more in Daily Maverick: The ballots have been cast – now what?

But exactly when this would happen will depend on the politicians, and how any cooperation agreements shape up. The pressure is on, and no doubt all sorts of posts from Cabinet to Parliament are up for discussion. 

Once the President is elected, the inauguration and the official swearing of the oath of office and obedience to the Constitution must take place at most five days later, according to the Constitution. 

But all that unfolds only when the IEC declares the 2024 election results and seats – and the politicians who just four days ago were not considering cooperation, but must now clinch those necessary agreements of cooperation. DM

Comments (6)

aidan.wampach Jun 1, 2024, 12:06 PM

Just a short message to the anc (who would presumably rule till the return of the Redeemer): Nibble on your humble pie and ('skies my Afrikaans) nou moet julle f%€£en mooi luister, julle diewe.

Darryl Accone Jun 1, 2024, 08:40 AM

The country should be grateful for small mercies. Rise Mzansi didn't, despite the concerted neoliberal campaign pushing it. Its figurehead leader will not be the kingmaker of which he doubtless dreamed; to channel Edgar Allan Poe, The Fall of the House of Zibi.

jbest6787@gmail.com Jun 1, 2024, 07:52 AM

Please tell ANC and DA to put their pride aside and put the rainbow nation first by forming a coalition government nationally at least! If possible forming a coalition government in Gauteng too you know. Only through DA and ANC cooperation can we as a country start growing up and maturing as a democracy. It's not about embracing free market or social democratic process. It's better to do a Singapore model of building a new emerging markets system

hlavatican Jun 1, 2024, 11:32 AM

Definitely. Cyrillic is amenable to anything. A robust cabinet of competent team is what SA needs now. It can fix Eskom, all parastatals, ailing municipalities, ineffective police, ailing hospitals, weak NPA, roads, transport system, JOBS, .... yooo it seems everything is not working. But let's start. Differences in polices will always be there. But some may be compromised, some postponed, especially those that can impede on economic growth . After political parties have always said so many things that they will do but never did them.

Rama Chandra Jun 1, 2024, 10:42 AM

100%. Although part of the deal should be getting rid of Celi and getting someone competent in the role. And MoF to the DA. Ramaphosa can keep the Presidency.

Errol.price Jun 1, 2024, 07:32 AM

Some people may recall that during the 70s the most insightful socio- political perspectives concerning this bedonerd country came from a newspaper called the Naboomspruit Recorder,This was cleverly embedded in a page of the Sunday Times under the auspices of Joel Mervis. Does this paper still exist? If so I would been keen to read the assessment of the editor regarding the fate of the ANC and related matters. Can any one help ?

Denise Smit Jun 1, 2024, 06:53 AM

And just look at all the money the newcomers got , a failure for Rise Mansi, Bosa , Change starts now, which in spite of all the money did not have a take off. What votes wasted, and now we have a huge stalemate. The ANC is still the ANC (ANC plus MK) Duduzane says it is ANC voters that voted for MK. So the change we see is not anti service delivery failures, their constituency do not mind the mess the country is in. MK votes was just anti Ramaphosa votes (which is 15 % nationaly). What a joke. We are now really in a doomsday scenario in all provinces but the Western Cape

A Rosebank Ratepayer Jun 1, 2024, 06:08 AM

It seems Clem Sunter’s scenarios at the recent Biznews conference of 1.) positive economic reforms, vs 2.) increasing political instability, with flags at 50% of either occurring were spot on. The ANC remains pivotal to choosing the path and it boils down to, “Do they go with MK/EFF or DA/IFP?” It will likely boil down to the weight of opinion in the NEC and the views of the various members on what’s best for their personal futures, first, in the immediate future, and, secondly, in the medium to long term. The personal implications for them from the requirements of potential coalition partners will be a key factor, if left implicit because of the ANC’s false “I am here at the pleasure of the party not myself” culture. It may be useful to look at the positions of the top 4 as a start. 1. Cyril - DA/IFP - can stay as president can stay as president if hopefully the DA wind in their derogatory commentary, he will like this. MK/EFF have repeatedly said they want him out (although can never trust what politicians say in public vs private) 2. Gwede - leaving but will have a say, wants a slow coal transition which is business friendly so could swing him to DA/EFF. He seems shocked at MK and JZ’s attacking ANC. Likely also not to like the Pedi boy, (similar to JZ and much of KZN) 3. Fikile - seems caught between a rock and a hard place. DA/EFF may support his prosecution but perhaps this is no longer a political factor as Afriforum have taken it private. MK/EFF can’t call off a private prosecution even if they wanted to. Maybe FM will just play the role of the court jester, bouncing around at the feet of the others as they walk in their chosen direction. 4. Paul Mashatile - appears to clearly favour EFF. Also appears to have a number of clouds over his head requiring some investigation. Which coalition partner is more likely to press for this? He is likely to go the other way. This analysis, (such as it is - hopefully the DM journalists and other real analysts will shortly share their wisdom and thoughts), suggests that Clem Sunter’s flags will remain very much at 50/50 for the next couple of weeks. Positives are that some who have things to fear which could cloud their decision making are already out of the picture - eg Nomvula Makonyane. There maybe many others worried about how to protect their own, little known nefarious activities. They are likely to prefer MK/EFF, particularly given the culture of legal impunity JZ endorses (thanks for nothing Kemp J Kemp - what a terrible legacy) Further fault lines include 1. more youthful NEC members preferring the EFF, and Zulus preferring MK although they may also IFP. How strong will these blocs be against those preferring a more business oriented, employment friendly DA/IFP; and, 2. The greatctangled web of minor politicians, officials, and tenderpreneurs who will all be feverishly pushing back at the politicians trying keep their particular legal and or illegal patronage chains in place. They are all likely to favour an MK/EFF coalition. The NEC decisions on the weekend will probably boil down to where the majority of them will feel most protected in the short term, next 1 to 5 years, read Marlowe’s Dr Faust! In for a roller coaster over the next two weeks!

Ian Gwilt Jun 1, 2024, 08:38 AM

The corruption is so entrenched at multiple levels that I feel a strong push to do the wrong thing and stay safe. An ANC +Mk gives them about 54% A combined ANC team that allows the looting to continue. Scary, you have to hope that there are enough democrats in the ANC to walk away, but I am not sure. JZ is still a member of the ANC and could come back to cleanse it.