The friendly verbal jostling among politicians on the floor of the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) national results centre belies serious considerations for South Africa’s governance. Away from the banter unfolded meetings to determine what the criteria, bottom lines and top demands would be for a coalition – or a cooperation deal.
On the back of Friday evening’s numbers, with 85% of the vote published, such cooperation would be needed nationally, in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and in the Northern Cape, the first province to complete the count.
At 9pm on Friday, the IEC results showed the ANC at 41.23% nationally, the DA at 22.25%, the MK party at 13%, beating the EFF, which received 9.4%, to be the third-placed party. The IFP secured 3.52%.
Read more in Daily Maverick: Elections dashboard
While the loss of the ANC’s majority was the talking point, another key takeaway was the rise of populist and anti-progressive political parties such as the MK party and the Patriotic Alliance (PA), which at 2.2% multiplied its support from the 0.4% achieved in the 2019 elections.
The ANC is expected to hold its national executive committee (NEC) meeting on Sunday. The DA was meeting fellow opposition parties in the Multi-Party Charter, and then on Sunday its federal executive meets to make those decisions on cooperation. The IFP is planning its top-level meeting also on Sunday.
While it would be unlikely for the DA to go into a coalition with the ANC, either provincially or nationally, a cooperation or a so-called confidence-and-supply agreement could well be an option. This could be represented to the DA base as a necessity to keep out the so-called doomsday ANC-EFF government, in line with the opposition party’s 2024 election campaign.
The IFP may well be open to closer cooperation under a government of national unity as it indicated a couple of months ago.
Hung provinces
The deal making may well be between the ANC, DA and IFP nationally and in KwaZulu-Natal, and even Gauteng, given how the election result numbers stood late Friday.
In KwaZulu-Natal, where the ANC support tanked to 18% from the 54.2% polled in 2019, that party had already reached out to the IFP late on Thursday. The IFP in KwaZulu-Natal got 19.1% and the DA 12.5% by 9pm on Friday evening.
On the other side stands the MK party, which even though it had clinched 44.3% support by Friday evening, still needed a partner. It would need the EFF and others to take it over the 50% plus one threshold in the province. Whether the EFF would be up for this remains to be seen.
In the Northern Cape where the ANC came in at a sliver below 50%, an arrangement with a one-seat party would be sufficient to retain control.
Only in Limpopo did the ANC perform in line with previous elections – 75% late Friday, close enough to the 75.49% it received in the 2019 elections and just a little less than the 78.6% it received in 2014. The next best ANC province was the Eastern Cape with a percentage in the mid-60s, a dip from the 68.7% obtained in the 2019 elections. The ANC held the Free State and North West, and by late Friday evening it sneaked past the 50% threshold in Mpumalanga, where the MK party also ate at its support.
In Gauteng, where an ANC-EFF deal was widely speculated about ahead of the 29 May poll results, the numbers late on Friday were such that this would not be possible without a significant third partner. Again, an ANC, DA, IFP deal would bring governance stability. The ANC obtained 35.5%, the DA 27.5% and the EFF 12.28%.
Whether politicians over the next few days would seal such a deal remains to be seen; they have 14 days from when the IEC declares the election results. Political parties remained guarded ahead of their respective weekend meetings.
Below expectations
But on Friday at the IEC national results centre at Gallagher Estate in Midrand all that seemed a long way off. While the ANC may have been the focus, given the 29 May results, other political parties also had to face difficult questions.
ActionSA did not do as well as hyped at 1.1% nationally by Friday evening. Nor did Rise Mzansi. None of the new parties really featured, nor did the independents, although veteran activist Zackie Achmat standing for the National Assembly from the Western Cape received the most votes at just over 8,000.
On Friday afternoon, the national picture, according to the Krutham Mosaic model, meant the ANC would get 168 of the National Assembly seats, followed by the DA at 87, or three more than previously, and the MK party at 48 seats followed by the EFF at 40, losing four.
The IFP was pencilled in with 12 seats in the House as was the Patriotic Alliance while ActionSA has six. The newcomers that did make it, according to the model from the Johannesburg-based financial services sector consultancy, were Rise Mzansi and Bosa with two seats each.
These seat calculations are not final, as only the IEC will declare the results, possibly on Sunday.
Next steps
Meanwhile, Parliament is doing its bit to prepare for the next steps. Once the IEC declares the 2024 election results and legislature seats – this is expected on Sunday at 3pm – the National Assembly must sit within 14 days as stipulated by the Constitution.
The first step is to swear in 400 MPs, which is done by the chief justice, and then to elect the President. It is understood the venue for this would be the Cape Town Convention Centre.
Read more in Daily Maverick: The ballots have been cast – now what?
But exactly when this would happen will depend on the politicians, and how any cooperation agreements shape up. The pressure is on, and no doubt all sorts of posts from Cabinet to Parliament are up for discussion.
Once the President is elected, the inauguration and the official swearing of the oath of office and obedience to the Constitution must take place at most five days later, according to the Constitution.
But all that unfolds only when the IEC declares the 2024 election results and seats – and the politicians who just four days ago were not considering cooperation, but must now clinch those necessary agreements of cooperation. DM