A maize supply crisis looms in southern Africa’s agricultural sector

At the end of February, Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema declared a disaster after realising the country had lost more than half of its maize harvest because of the drought. Zambia’s maize production in the 2023-24 season is down by more than 50% to an estimated harvest of 1.6 million tonnes. The country now has to import a record volume of 1 million tonnes to satisfy the domestic maize needs of 2.8 million tonnes.

Zimbabwe faces a similar challenge, with its maize harvest down by roughly 60% from the 2022-23 production season to an estimated 635,000 tonnes. This is the lowest harvest since the 2015-16 production season, another drought year. Moreover, the drought is not the only reason for the fall in Zimbabwe’s maize harvest; although a significant factor, the decline in fertiliser usage has also contributed to poor yields. The fertiliser prices, while down from the previous year, are well above the pre-Covid-19 levels, thus adding financial strain on poor smallholder farmers, the majority of producers in Zimbabwe. Fertiliser makes up roughly a third of the grain farmers’ input costs.

This significant decline in Zimbabwe’s maize production means that the import needs will increase sharply. Zimbabwe’s domestic maize consumption is typically about 2 million tonnes. Thus, the US Department of Agriculture’s Pretoria-based analysts’ estimate that Zimbabwe may need to import at least a million tonnes in the new marketing year of 2024-25 is convincing (the 2024-25 marketing year corresponds with the 2023-24 production season). Such an import figure is a significant increase from Zimbabwe’s maize imports of 637,327 tonnes in the 2023-24 marketing year, all from South Africa. 

Unlike the 2023-24 marketing year, when South Africa’s overall maize exports were 3.4 million tonnes, in the new 2024-25 marketing year, South Africa’s maize exports are likely to fall to 1.4 million tonnes. This is on the back of a poor domestic harvest. South Africa’s maize harvest is down by 19% year on year, estimated at 13.3 million tonnes, because of the midsummer drought. 

Admittedly, South Africa did not experience a sharp fall in production, unlike Zimbabwe or Zambia, where the domestic maize harvests are down by more than 50%. Part of the reason is differences in farming practices and the improved seed cultivars in South Africa. The significant difference is using improved seed cultivars, fertiliser and agrochemicals. Irrigation is not a major factor, as only 10% of South African maize is under irrigation, and the rest is rainfed. This is similar to Zimbabwe’s maize proportion under irrigation. 

Still, Zimbabwe is likely to be the significant beneficiary if the country’s private sector stakeholders and government place orders promptly. Zambia, another southern African country with a maize import need of a million tonnes, insists that the imports should only be non-genetically modified. More than 85% of South Africa’s maize is genetically modified, which means that, under the current rules, Zambia may not consider South Africa a supplier of maize. 

One would have expected Zambia to ease its regulations at such a time of major maize needs. However, the government authorities have maintained this prohibition. It is already a challenge to find white maize in the world market, regardless of whether or not it is genetically modified, as the primary producers are southern Africa (South Africa specifically) and Mexico. Most of the world’s maize is yellow maize for animal feed. 

The drought has hit the entire southern Africa region. Therefore, Zambia faces a tough challenge for the months ahead and is another country to watch closely towards the last quarter of this year and into the first quarter of 2025. It is possible that, confronted with the realities of higher domestic food prices and the scarcity of non-genetically modified maize supplies, Zambia may adjust its policy. 

We are already reading about the significant decline in southern Africa’s maize supplies. However, the full impact of the poor harvest on the consumer is likely to be more pronounced towards the end of this year and into the first quarter of 2025. This is when the major maize consumers in southern Africa would have used much of the domestic harvest, which provided a much-needed cushion in the near term. 

Thus, significant upside risks remain in maize prices, mainly white maize, towards the end of this year and into 2025 because of this possible regional maize demand. DM