Above-normal rainfall predicted for South Africa's northeast: a summer shift in weather patterns

Things suddenly look wetter this summer for South Africa’s northeast, which includes the Kruger National Park and swathes of Limpopo, Mpumalanga, KZN and Gauteng. 

“Current predictions indicate above-normal rainfall for most northeastern summer rainfall regions during the entire summer period,” the South African Weather Service says in its latest monthly Seasonal Climate Watch, which looks five months ahead. 

This is a big change from the previous month’s outlook, which forecast drier conditions for the northeast for the early and mid-summer seasons.

Read more: Hot summer forecast for SA extended to February, outlook remains dry for northeast

One thing that has remained consistent is the temperature outlook: across most of South Africa, the summer is forecast to be a scorcher. The exception is the coastal regions of the Northern Cape, which are expected to experience below-normal maximum temperatures. 

The current long-range forecast also says “... below-normal rainfall is predicted over some parts of the interior and central regions of the country, including Free State, North West and Northern Cape provinces, during the mid- and late-summer seasons.”

These areas are mostly to the west of the grain belt in North West and Free State, so the outlook for summer crops, including the staple maize, remains cautiously optimistic after last season’s searing El Niño event stunted yields, triggering a 24% year-on-year decline in South Africa’s grains and oil seeds production. 

According to the Crop Estimates Committee, its preliminary assessment released on 29 October is that South African commercial farmers intend to plant 2.64 million hectares of maize this summer season, up 0.2% from what was sown last year. 

For all summer crops, the intentions are to plant 4.47 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds, a 1% rise on last season. 

Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber, said in a note on the data that farmers have been incentivised by relatively high prices in the wake of last season’s poor harvest and falling prices of key inputs such as fertiliser. 

Commercial farmers have also been betting on the arrival of the La Niña weather pattern. La Niña typically unleashes good rains in this region while El Niño usually heralds drought and the last one lived up to its reputation. 

But global forecasters have been paring back their expectations regarding La Niña and, if it does finally materialise, it is now predicted to be weak and fade by February or March. 

Read more: The chances of La Niña forming are fading, Australian weather service says

The SA Weather Service echoed these forecasts in its latest Seasonal Climate Watch.

“Current predictions indicate the development of a weak La Niña state during the start of the summer season. However, there is still significant uncertainty in the predictions,” it said. 

El Niño-Southern Oscillation, as this global weather stage is called, is currently in its neutral phase and this region can still get decent rains under this scenario. 

If this summer is going to be a hot one, South Africa will need the rains. DM

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