Achieving a just and green transition in South Africa: Taking stock before moving forward

Everyone, from policymakers to trade unionists, community leaders, business people, researchers and even donors, talks about “just transition, just transition, and the just transition”. So on the surface it appears that they all agree, but in reality there is no common understanding of what this term actually means for South Africa. What is more concerning is the lack of dissemination of the just transition agenda at a grassroots level, among the very people it is meant to target.

These are among the myriad factors that have emerged during recent stakeholder dialogues organised by Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) in an attempt to unpack the complexities of ensuring a just transition in South Africa. 

Why does a just transition in South Africa matter so much? 

At its core, it aims to ensure that vulnerable stakeholders are better off through the transition to a green economy, or at least are not negatively impacted by it. In the South African context, the staggering levels of unemployment, inequality and poverty render this need even more pressing. 

And, in reality, a transition can only be truly just if it is an inclusive process that empowers stakeholders, especially the most vulnerable communities, to codesign and co-implement the transition – a challenging but very much central condition for democracy.   

Before exploring the current tensions and differences within the just transition space, let’s get back to where the idea of a just transition originates. It emerged out of the 1970s labour movement in the United States in response to toxic waste clean-up policies, which disproportionately impacted minority and vulnerable workers. As a result, labour movements and environmental justice organisations campaigned for a “just transition”. This led to supportive policies for workers facing job losses, so that they could transition to new livelihoods. 

Since then, the concept has risen within the labour movement and beyond, reaching global prominence with the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Indeed, the preamble of the Paris Agreement refers explicitly to the need for a “just transition of the workforce”. 

Within the South African discourse, the idea of a just transition can be traced back to a position paper on climate change adopted by the Congress of South African Trade Unions in August 2011. At the time, the paper took a proactive stance on climate policy, embracing the need to transition to a low-carbon economy, but at the same time advocating that workers and generally vulnerable stakeholders should be prioritised in the country’s transition. 

Largely neglected for most of the decade, the just transition agenda has taken centre stage in recent years. Spearheaded by rapidly expanding research, just transition discussions in South Africa have so far been heavily concentrated on the energy sector, and even more so on the impact of the decline in the use of coal. The imperative of a just transition has already found its way into policy, featuring high in both the latest Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity and the 2019 Roadmap for Eskom in a Reformed Electricity Supply Industry. 

New and disruptive, the just transition agenda in South Africa is, unsurprisingly, a much-contested space. Many areas of contention persist and disagreement in the field is rife. This is not unexpected with so many vested interests involved. 

First, while the just transition agenda is, for most, a rallying call for proactive implementation, it is still seen in some corners (of government, labour unions and the private sector) as an opportunity to hinder the transition process. Vested interests and political settlements continue to look back, working hard to protect the status quo in favour of incumbents. Breaking this deadlock is a key step towards a just transition in the country. 

Second, whether or not a just transition can be achieved effectively within the prevailing (capitalist) model of development is a key differentiator between stakeholders. This notably crystallises on the nature of ownership and operation of assets envisioned by stakeholders. Many in the labour movement and civil society advocate heartily for socially owned infrastructure and means of production, such as state- and community-owned energy generation, in stark contrast to the views (and interests) of the private sector.

Third, the depth and speed of the transition to a low-carbon economy remains highly debated. Correspondingly, this has critical implications for the goal of achieving a just transition. In the electricity industry, for instance, long-standing competition exists between proponents of various technologies. In heavy industry, this extends to the future of some industrial facilities in their current form, such as refineries and smelters. 

Fault lines cut across industry, labour unions, civil society and even government, reflecting the various competing objectives pursued by stakeholders, from mitigating climate change to maximising the use of mineral resources. To foster consensus and coherence, government should notably convey a coherent messaging on the nature of a just transition and the timelines.

When lost or in doubt, stakeholders should heed the lessons of countries that have gone through similar transitions, especially in the coal sector. A key factor that emerges from history is the need for transitions to be crafted by and for vulnerable stakeholders, fundamentally shifting decision-making away from traditional power structures.