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Africa must shift from bystander to active strategic actor in the global trade war

Noluthando Qwelani
By Noluthando Qwelani
7 May 2025
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The current trade war is not merely a contest over tariffs and supply chains. It is a deeper struggle for influence, control and access. African states must decide whether they will remain on the margins, or become active architects of their economic futures.

As trade tensions escalate between major global powers, particularly the United States and China, Africa finds itself in a precarious position. With its markets courted by China and its mineral exports increasingly constrained by Western trade policy, the continent is becoming a passive battleground in a wider contest for global economic dominance.

Yet this moment offers Africa an opening: to reposition itself not as a collateral actor, but as a coordinated, strategic force that prioritises regional trade, research-led development and long-term self-sufficiency.

The current geopolitical context reveals the consequences of asymmetrical power. For years, China has deepened its engagement with African countries through infrastructure investments, trade partnerships and development financing.

While beneficial in some respects, these arrangements often raise concerns about long-term debt sustainability. In contrast, many Western governments have relied on restrictive trade practices and policy influence to maintain their economic position in Africa.

Recent comments by US President Donald Trump, stating that “people are calling me willing to kiss my ass”, though made in a different context, underscore the power dynamics at play and the perception of desperation among nations and stakeholders seeking access.

Amid this competition, African economies remain largely uncoordinated, vulnerable to external shocks, and overexposed to a narrow range of commodity exports. While China has demonstrated its capacity to push back through diversified influence and countermeasures, Africa has no such coordinated response mechanisms. We are exposed — but not without agency.

Trade wars and the future of global currency


The recent revival of BRICS momentum, including the New Development Bank (NDB) and proposals to de-dollarise trade, has unsettled global financial structures.

The idea of a multipolar financial system has gained traction as countries seek financing options to traditional Bretton Woods institutions. For African countries, this could provide access to development finance without geopolitical strings attached.

However, this shift is not without resistance. Efforts to diversify away from the US dollar have been met with counter-pressure, including tighter restrictions on mineral supply chains and a recalibration of trade agreements such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa).

These reactions affirm that global trade and monetary systems are highly politicised. The question for Africa is whether we are prepared to take bold policy steps and negotiate our interests from a position of unity.

Strengthening intra-African trade: the case for market expansion


Rather than waiting to be shielded from external shocks, African policymakers must use this moment to fast-track the consolidation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The agreement seeks to bring together all 55 members of the African Union (AU) into an integrated and combined market of 1.4 billion, with a GDP of about US$3.4-trillion.

Yet progress remains uneven, hindered by limited infrastructure, divergent national policies and slow alignment on regulatory standards.

Continental industrialisation is key. Africa’s raw minerals are increasingly essential to the global green transition, particularly critical minerals such as cobalt and lithium.

Instead of exporting these in raw form, countries must invest in value addition and local beneficiation. This will require targeted public investment, trade facilitation and regulatory reforms that support regional value chains.

Debt, innovation and the promise of research-led development


One major constraint to bold policy is the debt burden. Equally important is the role of youth-led innovation ecosystems. With more than 60% of Africa’s population under the age of 25, the continent’s greatest untapped advantage is not just in natural resources but in human capital.

Governments must intentionally support research incubators, university-industry linkages and climate-tech hubs that centre youth as co-creators of resilient economic systems. This demographic dividend can become a source of innovation if supported by bold policy.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s debt levels have risen, limiting fiscal space and increasing vulnerability to shocks. Yet innovation can still thrive within this context.

Through regional collaboration in research and development, African countries can pool limited resources to develop homegrown solutions in agriculture, digital infrastructure and energy. Institutions such as the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (Nepad) and the African Union have already prioritised science and innovation as drivers of structural transformation.

Moreover, external partners - whether BRICS+, the EU or China - must be engaged not merely as financiers, but as co-investors in knowledge systems. This requires negotiated terms that prioritise African intellectual property, joint ventures and research exchange.

A moment of strategic clarity


The current trade war is not merely a contest over tariffs and supply chains. It is a deeper struggle for influence, control and access. As powerful nations recalibrate their financial architectures and sourcing strategies, African states must decide whether they will remain on the margins or become active architects of their economic futures.

With the AfCFTA, a young population, growing innovation ecosystems and increased visibility in global forums, Africa has the tools to act. What is needed now is political alignment, stronger institutions and a shared vision.

Africa must not wait for external validation. It must define and defend its interests, expand its internal markets and invest in the knowledge economy that will drive long-term resilience.

The time for strategic non-alignment has passed. The time for strategic action is now.

Recommendations:



  • Position Africa as a unified trading bloc: African countries should accelerate the implementation of AfCFTA to strengthen intra-African trade and collectively negotiate from a position of strength in global trade forums;

  • Establish strategic trade alliances: Forge balanced trade partnerships with both traditional powers (US, EU) and emerging economies (BRICS+, Asia-Pacific) to mitigate risks associated with overdependence on a single bloc;

  • Leverage the BRICS-led NDB: Support the expansion of the NDB’s mandate in financing trade-enabling infrastructure and technology for African member states, while advocating more inclusive governance that reflects Africa’s priorities;

  • Negotiate Agoa renewal with reforms: Use the upcoming Agoa renewal as leverage to demand greater policy space, simplified compliance conditions and support for value-added exports rather than raw material dependency;

  • Invest in trade intelligence and policy capacity: Build technical capacity across African trade ministries and research institutions to assess the impacts of shifting trade dynamics, and develop rapid-response mechanisms for global trade shocks; and

  • Promote youth-led policy innovation: Create national and regional youth policy innovation labs that enable young professionals to contribute practical, tech-driven solutions to trade, employment and industrialisation challenges. DM

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