Africa’s counter-terrorism strategies require upgrades with African Union engagement to address growing threats

As Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda leaders have been targeted and eliminated internationally, the terrorist groups have expanded and consolidated their African operations. According to Jihad Analytics, half the attacks claimed by IS since the beginning of 2022 were carried out in 10 African countries. Among them were Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria — the four Boko Haram-affected countries of the Lake Chad Basin.

Boko Haram factions are also expanding operations beyond the region. For a long time, the eight primary target areas of violent extremism in the Lake Chad Basin were North and Far North (Cameroon), Lac and Hadjer-Lamis (Chad), Diffa (Niger), and Borno, Adamawa and Yobe (Nigeria). However, in 2022 the scope has expanded, particularly with the establishment of Ansaru and Islamic State West Africa Province (Iswap) cells in other parts of Nigeria.

This has complicated counter-insurgency operations, especially where national militaries are already overstretched. The extension of terrorist activities beyond the Lake Chad Basin also puts these groups beyond the reach of the region’s Multinational Joint Task Force — a military response to Boko Haram set up by Benin, Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria. 

There is the growing possibility of mergers or alliances of convenience involving the three prominent violent extremist groups in Nigeria and the Lake Chad Basin, namely Iswap, Ansaru and Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS). The move to expand and consolidate operations is forging unlikely ties not only between terrorist groups but between them and organised criminals.

Two examples are the kidnapping of train passengers in Kaduna, Nigeria, in March and the jailbreak leading to the escape of prisoners affiliated with Boko Haram in Abuja, Nigeria, in July. The former involved a collaboration between the Boko Haram faction Ansaru and criminal gangs referred to as bandits. The latter brought together two Boko Haram factions, Ansaru and Iswap. 

Growing links are also being observed between Boko Haram offshoots outside their usual geographic zones of operation. A merger of the three breakaway factions may cause a spillover of terrorism in Nigeria and the wider Sahel. 

Ansaru is affiliated with al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, while Iswap owes allegiance to the IS core. JAS has reportedly reached out to IS, leading the global terror organisation to nudge its most successful affiliate, Iswap, towards an alliance with JAS. A merger could see a consolidation of fighters and resources. It may also lead to greater control of economic activities in the communities where these groups operate, improving terrorists’ access to income.