Accelerate, extend or abandon? Africa struggles to meet Sustainable Development Goals

As the world prepares for this month’s United Nations (UN) Summit of the Future, Africa faces a critical juncture. With just six years until the 2030 deadline, the continent probably won’t meet the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Should it double down and accelerate efforts, try to extend the timeframe, or abandon certain goals altogether and channel resources towards the priorities of individual countries? 

Out of the 144 measurable SDG targets, Africa is on track to achieve only 10 by 2030. As many as 106 targets require accelerated action, while 28 are moving in the wrong direction. 

Africa has made progress on SDG 9 (specifically mobile network coverage) and SDG 4 (specifically school enrolment). But its current trajectory projects that more than 23% of people in Africa will still live in absolute poverty by 2030 (SDG 1). 

By that time, the rest of the world would probably have dipped below the desired 3% mark. Only Tunisia, Algeria, Mauritius, Gabon, Egypt, Seychelles and Morocco have achieved the 3% target, with Libya and Cabo Verde on track for 2030. 

Countries like Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Senegal and Equatorial Guinea can meet the goal if action is accelerated. However, Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, the Central African Republic, Burundi, Lesotho and the Democratic Republic of Congo are likely to have more than 50% of their population still living in absolute poverty in 2030 – with rates in Madagascar, Mozambique and Malawi above 70%.

This challenge isn’t unique to Africa. Globally, only 15% of the SDGs are on track, with nearly half off course. However, Africa’s performance is particularly concerning and raises valid questions about the viability of the 2030 deadline. 

The SDGs succeeded the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which tackled pressing global challenges between 2000 and 2015. The MDGs helped halve extreme poverty and improve access to clean drinking water (mainly in China and India). But they also faced significant shortcomings, particularly in maternal health and environmental sustainability.

The SDGs were designed to address these gaps, expanding to include reducing inequality, combating climate change and promoting sustainable economic growth. Yet, without a major shift in strategy, the SDGs globally will also fall short of their ambitious aims.

In Africa, there have been calls for accelerated action. In July, Ghana’s President Nana Akufo-Addo called for a significant push to access the resources and political will required to meet SDG goals. He highlighted reforms that could unlock the estimated $1.3-trillion needed annually, such as stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, public-private partnerships and innovative financial mechanisms like blended finance. 

However, the challenges to acceleration are formidable. The remaining SDG gaps are immense, particularly for low- and middle-income countries, where insufficient financing is exacerbated by debt burdens, reduced fiscal space and limited access to global financial markets. It’s also unclear whether the political will exists to push through necessary reforms. 

The African Futures and Innovation (AFI) team at the Institute for Security Studies has modelled various reforms and strategies aimed at achieving meaningful and sustainable development in Africa. Even its most optimistic forecast, the Combined scenario – which assumes significant improvements in governance, financial reforms, integrated trade and domestic manufacturing – shows that many 2030 SDG targets remain unattainable.