Africa’s super year of elections — The rise of information disorder in African elections

A new phenomenon worth sustained monitoring in the election super year is the increasing power of social media and artificial intelligence to pollute the information environment. These entities have enabled information disorder to become a key stakeholder in elections in Africa on a scale never seen before.

In many countries where elections are heavily contested and sometimes the environment is toxic and polarised, generative AI and social media are used to fan hate messages and to create severe information pollution.

Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) results in the use of four Vs to try and capture the political market or influence the elections to produce certain outcomes that may not be democratic. The four Vs are volume, velocity, virality and verisimilitude.

GenAI results in information being produced in large volumes. The use of ICT and social media results in information generated to move at great velocity. With GenAI, the large volumes of information are moved at high velocity to a micro-targeted audience to produce virality. The use of GenAI and machines that learn and make human-like decisions also results in content production that looks credible and very difficult to identify and distinguish as fake, especially deep fake videos in elections, hence the quality of verisimilitude.

National authorities and EMBs have not yet adopted legal and policy frameworks to regulate the information market effectively in a way that protects the fundamental rights of the electorate. Election observers have not yet developed tools to effectively monitor the impact of information disorder on the right and ability of voters to make informed decisions and choices that are a prerequisite of free, fair and credible elections

Myths and realities about African elections 

Throughout the decades the concept of democratisation through elections has been a central tenet of Africa’s political landscape. Yet, as the continent navigates its journey towards democratic governance, the question arises: is this notion merely a myth, or is it a tangible reality?

Elections as a facade

Critics argue that elections in Africa often serve as a mere facade, offering the illusion of democracy while preserving authoritarian rule. These elections, they contend, are marred by irregularities, voter intimidation, and manipulation, rendering them far from free and fair. The recent history of rigged elections and power consolidation by incumbents in various African countries provides ample fodder for this argument.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Can Artificial Intelligence on steroids hijack an election?

Elections as seeds of change

Amidst the scepticism lies a profound reality: elections have undeniably planted the seeds of change across the African continent. Take, for instance, the case of Nigeria, where the transition from military rule to civilian democracy in 1999 marked a significant milestone. Despite ongoing challenges, Nigeria has witnessed multiple peaceful transitions of power through elections, demonstrating the potential for democratic progress.

One- or two-party dominance

Another argument against the democratisation narrative is the prevalence of one-party dominance in many African nations. Critics point to countries like South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zimbabwe and Angola, where ruling parties have maintained a stranglehold on power for decades. They argue that elections are a tool for perpetuating one-party rule. Others counter this argument by giving examples of the US and the UK which are viewed as mature democracies but where there are two parties that have historically exchanged power between them using the electoral process. The argument is that entrenched political monopoly undermines the very essence of multiparty democracy.

Emergence of alternatives

Yet, even in the face of one-party dominance, Africa has seen the emergence of alternative voices and movements challenging the status quo. The recent political upheavals in countries like Sudan and Ethiopia illustrate the power of popular movements in demanding political reform and accountability. These movements, driven by a desire for genuine democracy, offer a glimmer of hope that authoritarian rule will continue to face bottom-up pressure from the electorate.

Coup culture

A prevalent myth surrounding democratisation in Africa is the persistence of the “coup culture”, where military interventions disrupt democratic processes and undermine stability. The coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Guinea in the recent past serve as stark reminders of this enduring challenge, casting doubt on the feasibility of democratic consolidation.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Crackdowns on corruption, service delivery focus — how Africa can end its rash of military coups

Resilience of institutions: However, Africa's democratic journey is not defined solely by coups and setbacks. The continent has witnessed the resilience of democratic institutions in the face of adversity. Take, for instance, Kenya, often hailed as the beacon of democracy in Africa. Despite experiencing violent elections in 2007 and several other elections before and after that, Kenya has established robust electoral mechanisms, a judicial system and a vibrant civil society, demonstrating the capacity for democratic resilience, and so is the same with Senegal and Ghana which are beacons of democracy in West Africa.

The question remains whether Africa is undergoing democracy consolidation, democracy decay or regression. 2024 as an elections super year will help us try to answer this question. Time will tell but election practitioners need to observe developments during this election super year in Africa and draw lessons to improve electoral practices.

While challenges persist, from electoral fraud and the impact of information pollution to authoritarian rule, there is also evidence of incremental progress. As Africans continue to strive for democratic governance, let us confront the myths, embrace the realities, and work towards a future where democracy thrives for all.

A common thread running through African countries is the strong desire among citizens and the people of Africa to have their voices heard. This underscores Africa’s collective aspiration for more accountable, citizen-centric, and democratic governance. DM    

Read Part 1 here 

David Mburu is a Human Rights Lawyer and Activist, attached to Africa Judges and Jurists Forum and is currently a Norec Fellow based in Johannesburg.      

Arnold Tsunga is a human rights lawyer and the Managing Partner at Tsunga Law International. Arnold is the Rule of Law and Elections Expert at Africa Judges and Jurists Forum.