‘Aggressive push’ to expel US ambassador from SA as government data shows no weapons exports to Russia

US ambassador Reuben Brigety has already been “demarched” and severely censured by Pretoria but now there is an ‘aggressive push’ to go further by expelling him from the country, Daily Maverick has learnt. But for the ANC, the situation is complicated by the fact that he’s African American and it is worried about the optics of expulsion.  

Daily Maverick also understands that the government maintains that its own data shows that South Africa has exported no weapons to Russia since at least 2018.

The ambassador told journalists in May that Washington was confident that weapons and ammunition had been loaded onto the sanctioned Russian cargo vessel Lady R, which docked in Simon’s Town, Cape Town between 6 and 9 December 2022. His explosive allegations at the time sent the rand to three-year lows against the dollar and prompted renewed concerns about South Africa’s Agoa status.

Read more in Daily Maverick: SA set to démarche US ambassador on bombshell Russian ammunition accusations

Brigety said he was “confident” weapons were uploaded to the Lady R as it made its way back to Russia, “which does not suggest to us the actions of a non-aligned country”.

An independent panel chaired by a retired judge has concluded its investigation into the Lady R and City Press has reported via sources that it found that no weapons were loaded onto the ship.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Independent panel completes investigation into Lady R’s Simon’s Town sojourn

The findings of the report have not yet been made public, and may never be released publicly.

Pretoria denies that it sent any weapons to Moscow on the ship and the government’s trade data shows that no weapons have been exported to Russia from South Africa since at least 2018.

The allegations about the Lady R, the joint naval exercises in South African waters with Russia and China in February which coincided with the 1st anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and other instances of Pretoria’s growing ties with Russia, have been a diplomatic thorn in South Africa’s relations with Washington as Pretoria scrambles to retain its status as a beneficiary of the US African Growth and Opportunity Act. This provides preferential access to US markets for exports of various products from qualifying African countries. Some US Congressional leaders have called on the Biden administration to review SA’s participation in Agoa because of its friendship with Moscow.

Agoa accounts for about 2% of South Africa’s total exports, mostly vehicles, but the government sees it also as a “signal” of a special trade relationship that can be built on. And while South Africa accounts for only a trickle of US trade, it is of critical importance on some fronts, providing America with 39% of the rhodium and 46% of the palladium used as emissions-capping catalysts in automobiles.

Daily Maverick understands that the Lady R allegations and the joint naval operations were major concerns flagged by US government officials when a South African delegation visited America in July to make the case for retaining South Africa’s status in Agoa.

The blowback against Brigety comes as no surprise, although there are other views in the ANC government that are opposed to taking action against him.

Daily Maverick has previously reported that the talons were out for him among pro-Russian hawks in the ANC. 

Read more in Dail Maverick: Pro-Russia hawks in ANC likely to push back against US after ambassador’s outburst

Amid this unfolding diplomatic drama, at least Putin will be a now-show at the BRICS summit later this month. Among other things, analysts had flagged his possible presence as a potential blow to the rand, which has lost ground again this month. At the end of July it was trading at 17.88/dlr and was fetching 18.88/dlr at midday on Tuesday — a significant decline in the space of just over a week.

The currency and other markets are hyper-alert to South Africa’s diplomatic dance, and further missteps may prove costly. 

But if Pretoria decided it no longer wanted Brigety as the US ambassador to South Africa, it would merely have to notify Washington which would be obliged to recall him.  The 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations states that;  

“The receiving State (in this case South Africa)  may at any time and without having to explain its decision, notify the sending State (in this case the US)  that the head of the mission or any member of the diplomatic staff of the mission is persona non grata or that any other member of the staff of the mission is not acceptable. 

“In any such case, the sending State shall, as appropriate, either recall the person concerned or terminate his functions with the mission…”

“If the sending State refuses or fails within a reasonable period to carry out its obligations under paragraph 1 of this article, the receiving State may refuse to recognize the person concerned as a member of the mission.” 

But if the procedure for getting rid of a US ambassador may be easy, the implications for relations with Washington would be the real calculation. 

Last week Ramaphosa's spokesperson Vincent Magwenya told journalists that the investigation into the Lady R controversy had been concluded and that the investigating panel's report would be completed by close of business on Friday (4 August) and would be handed over to the president as soon as his schedule permitted. "Once the president has consumed the report he will then decide on the actions to be followed as guided by the report and on the aspects of the report that will be made public,” he said.

Asked again on Tuesday if there was any update, Magwenya replied that Ramaphosa had not yet received the report.

When asked to comment about a push against Brigety, Magwenya referred Daily Maverick to an earlier response by International Relations and Cooperation Minister Naledi Pandor. When asked if any actions would be taken against Brigety in the light of reports that the inquiry had not found any evidence of weapons being loaded, she responded. “Perhaps once we have looked at that report we might determine what further action might be considered by government. I’ve not seen the report and it’s not been in any formal meeting of government that I have attended.” DM

This article has been amended to include reference to the fact that there is no consensus in the ANC government about a push to expel Brigety.

Additional Reporting by Peter Fabricius