Ahead of Opening of Parliament Address, Ramaphosa finds himself at peak power – possibly not for long

The scene in Cape Town’s City Hall on Thursday evening, before President Cyril Ramaphosa even arrives to deliver his Opening of Parliament Address, may well be an important indicator of how the results of the 29 May elections have changed our politics.

In the past, even when opposition parties tried to control the atmosphere with shouting and singing, they were no match for the organised symphony of the ANC’s admittedly awesome singing performance.

The sound of more than 250 ANC MPs coming together in harmony (despite ideological differences) could be overpowering. The sheer power of it boosted whoever was delivering the main speech of the evening.

Not so much any more.

This time, there will be just 159 ANC MPs, many of whom will still be working out their relationships with people from the DA, the IFP and the FF+, and their feelings towards former president Jacob Zuma and his MK party.

This may well produce a discordant chorus.

That said, when Ramaphosa starts addressing Parliament, he may well pause for an instant to reflect on how central he has become to South Africa’s political establishment.

The crucial relationship of his coalition government is the one between the ANC and the DA. Such are the new lines of influence in our politics that it is hard to imagine the DA would remain in this coalition if Ramaphosa were removed.

Roughly three-quarters of the members of Parliament now belong to parties which will be united in their desire to remain in power, to enjoy their new positions and to prove they can work together. 

Ramaphosa will be speaking immediately after his first Cabinet lekgotla, which he described as having “great synergy” with “no dissenting voice”.

Honeymoon phase

Considering our political culture, that is hard to believe. 

However, this is still the honeymoon phase and Ramaphosa may well benefit from this fact.

In the past, Ramaphosa’s main, and perennial, opponent in Parliament was the EFF. They disrupted his big speeches on several occasions, grabbing media attention from the President. 

This too has changed in Ramaphosa’s favour. 

The EFF leader, Julius Malema, has said he will no longer disrupt Parliament and will play a more constructive role. Malema also no longer leads such a big caucus, as his party lost several seats in the recent election.

The fact that the EFF is under intense pressure over the VBS scandal may also lead to a more subdued EFF leadership on Thursday night.

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However, this will be Ramaphosa’s first speech in Parliament with MPs from MK present. 

MK’s parliamentary leader, John Hlophe, has said he will lead a tough opposition, but will follow the rules.

That said, the tone of MK, and the attacks it often launches on Ramaphosa indicate strongly held feelings against him.

Some MK MPs may find this difficult to control when finally confronted with the physical form of Ramaphosa in the same room.

Also, this week saw the scheduled start of former Zuma’s ANC disciplinary hearing, which may provide a focal point for the dynamics involved.

Nevertheless, Ramaphosa is in a very powerful position: he cannot be easily removed by his opponents in the ANC without risking the coalition, he can set the agenda and some of his opponents have been weakened.

However, as is often the case, things are much more complicated than that, and the Government of National Unity is still fragile.

It would be naive to assume that everyone in the ANC is happy to be working with the DA.

Also, given Zuma’s history in the ANC, it would be foolish to presume that he no longer has supporters in powerful positions in the ANC — the real questions are how many and to what extent do they support him? 

Bold action

It would be rational to assume that Ramaphosa, at the peak of his power, would use this moment to announce a bold programme of action for a government that will deliver real change.  

However, the broad nature of the coalition, which includes members of the PAC and the FF+, makes that very unlikely.

Instead, the President is likely to steer a middle course.

He may not shift at all from his previous speeches, which were often designed to appeal to the middle ground of the ANC. 

Unfortunately, considering South Africa’s problems, more of the same will not work — we need real action.

Of course, the real test of this coalition government will be over the much longer term. Here, some of the dynamics which put Ramaphosa in a commanding position are likely to endure for some time. As long as the DA remains in the coalition and the ANC needs the DA to stay in power, he will be relatively safe. 

However, more shocks are still possible. 

The full story around the Phala Phala scandal has not yet emerged, and Ramaphosa has many enemies. Perhaps his biggest enemy will be time and the structure of future events.

In just six months, campaigning will begin for the 2026 local government elections. Almost immediately after that, the race to succeed Ramaphosa as ANC leader will become much more public.

While it is still not clear who the main candidates will be, it is likely that power will start to ebb from him as that race becomes more defined. 

Twice before, the ANC has recalled a two-term President after a divisive leadership conference. Ramaphosa will have to play his cards skilfully to ensure the party does not make it third time unlucky. DM 

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2014-06-03-zumas-last-big-power-push-and-what-happens-next/