Al-Jamah wins big in Lenasia while ANC and DA also retain seats in Gauteng and Limpopo

Various political parties campaign during the municipal by elections on September 11, 2024 in Lenasia, South Africa. By-elections take place within 90 days after a municipal ward council seat becomes vacant. (Photo by Gallo Images/Fani Mahuntsi)

By Wayne Sussman

12 Sep 2024

The ANC put in a strong showing in Gauteng township by-elections – unlike the PA – but has work to do in Lenasia, while the DA is left with concerns about its much-vaunted turnout machine. And while Al Jama-ah can bask in a solid win, it was a mixed bag for the EFF and MK failed to build on its shock results last time round. By-elections were also held in wards in Free State, KwaZulu-Natal and North West this week. Watch out for our accompanying reports.

Gauteng

Ward 9 (Lenasia), Johannesburg: Al Jama-ah 60% (49%) DA 14% (18%) ANC 13% (17%) EFF 5% (2%) MK 2% AM4C 2% ATM 2% (<1%) ARM 1% AIC <1% (0)

The setting: Lenasia is in the deep south of Johannesburg, south of Soweto. Mohamed Moosajee, the former Proteas cricket team manager, hails from here. Radio broadcaster Ashraf Garda too has strong roots in Lenasia.

The 2021 local government elections: Al Jama-ah won its only ward in South Africa in Ward 9. It took almost half the vote and was well ahead of the chasing pack – DA, ANC and ActionSA. ActionSA finished fourth with 12%. Al Jama-ah swept all eight voting districts, besting the DA by 2,647 votes and the ANC by 2,725.

The 2024 provincial elections: It was much closer here, with Al Jama-ah beating the DA by a razor-thin margin and both ending on 30%. The ANC was third on 21%, while the EFF, Rise Mzansi and ActionSA all obtained 4%. MK was further down on 2% and former National Freedom Party (NFP) MP Ahmed Munzoor Shaik Emam’s part, they Allied Movement For Change (AM4C), got 1%.

Al Jama-ah won half of the districts in the provincial election – Park Primary School, Lenasia Public Secondary School, Protea Recreation Centre and Harmony Primary School – garnering 38% in two of them.

The DA won three districts – Lenasia Civic Centre, MH Joosub Technical Training School and Nirvana Secondary School. As per the 2021 local government elections, the party won its greatest share of the vote at the MH Joosub Technical Training School.

While Al Jama-ah’s voting districts were spread across the ward, the DA’s were centred on the southern part. The ANC carried the Jiswa Service Centre for the Aged district. This is where they did best in 2021 as well.

The by-election: Two-term councillor Imraan Moosa won a seat in Parliament. Nine parties threw their name in the hat for this election, with ActionSA electing not to take part. The election was held a few weeks after Al Jama-ah mayor Kabelo Gwamanda resigned to make way for Dada Morero from the ANC.

The MK candidate for the by-election, Farhaad Mitha, died the day before the by-election.

Al-Jamah won Ward 9 for the third consecutive local election with a very impressive showing, carrying seven out of the eight districts after winning four in May. It won all the districts won by the DA in May. It did best at the Protea Recreation Centre (79%), and won 77% at Harmony Primary School. Both these districts were in the Al-Jamah column in May. The party built on these historic foundations and made additional inroads as well.

The DA held onto second place but will be perplexed by its poor showing in a ward where it came very close to coming out tops in May. The ANC again won the Jiswa Service Centre for the Aged district, but lost similar ground to the DA compared to its showing in 2021.

Poll: 28% (47%)

by-elections Lenasia Political parties campaign during the by-election in Lenasia on 11 September 2024. (Photo: Gallo Images / Fani Mahuntsi)

Ward 21 (Tladi Moletsane), Johannesburg: ANC 59% (49% PR) PA 17% (1% PR) EFF 12% (14%) MK 10% AIC 1% (1% PR) ATM <1% (<1% PR)

The setting: Ward 21 sits below Bolani Road. Its eastern border is Koma Road, next to Jabulani. Tladi and Moletsane are west of the Soweto centre. Sesotho and Setswana are the main languages in this part of Soweto. Composer Lebo M hails from this ward.

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won less than half of the vote here in 2021 on both ballots. The proportional representation (PR) ballot result is used as the mode of comparison here because there were three independents who ran on the ward ballot.

ActionSA really hurt the ANC here with its 24% second-place finish on the PR ballot. The EFF came third with 14%.

The provincial elections: The ANC won 51%, with the EFF finishing second on 16% and MK debuting in third place with 12%. ActionSA fell from the 2021 high to 8%. The PA finished behind the DA on 2%.

Support for the ANC was broadly similar in both Tladi and Moletsane. The EFF beat MK in all eight voting districts. MK finished third in all eight.

The by-election: Mpho Sesedinyane won election to the Gauteng legislature. The ANC, EFF and MK were joined on the ballot by three other parties. A notable absence from the by-election was ActionSA.

The ANC won comfortably here. It was well up on its 2021 and May 2024 showings, carrying seven of the eight voting districts but shedding one to the Patriotic Alliance. Both new mayor Dada Morero and Gauteng premier Panyaza Lesufi will use this result as an endorsement for their respective leadership of the city and the province.

The PA surprised all to finish second in a ward where it struggled in previous elections. It won the Setlakana Molepo Adult Education Centre in Tladi, taking 40%. The ANC was second here with 38%.

The EFF will be upset that it fell from second to third place but will take some comfort from edging MK in this Soweto ward. In May, the EFF beat the MK in all districts. This time they beat the party in five of the eight districts.

Poll: 27% (51%)

Ward 12 (Kagiso) Mogale City, West Rand: ANC 61% (59%) EFF 14% (24%) PA 9% PAC 8% (3%) MK 7% OHM <1%

The setting: Kagiso is a large township south of the Krugersdorp town centre. It sits above the R41 road which links Randfontein with Roodepoort. Ward 12 is to the west of Kagiso Avenue. Setswana is the main language in the township.

Mogale City’s seat of power is Krugersdorp. It forms part of the West Rand district which includes towns such as Randfontein and Carletonville.

The 2021 local government election: The ANC beat the EFF by 428 votes. The DA finished third with 9%.

The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC won 53% of the vote here. The EFF came second with 18%. The DA was third on 10% and MK got the nod from 6% of the residents. The EFF beat MK in both districts.

The by-election: The ward councillor died. The DA sat out the by-election as the ANC and EFF were joined by MK, the Pan Africanist Congress of Azania (PAC), the PA and one other party.

The ANC had an impressive win in this key West Rand township. It enhanced its showing from both 2021 and May 2024. The EFF held onto second place but lost significant ground compared with 2021. The PA was the surprise third-place finisher. It won 19% at the Boipelo Secondary School district. This saw the party finish second in the district. The PAC beat MK to fourth place by nine votes. MK still made a slight improvement on its May showing but knows it has a lot of work to do in the western part of Gauteng.

Poll: 33% (31%)

Limpopo

Ward 3 (Onverwacht Marapong) Lephalale, Waterberg: DA 40% (32%) ANC 28% (32%) EFF 27% (14%) ACP 2% ATM 1% (2%) PAC 1% Ind-Manoko <1%

The setting: Lephalale is known for its bushveld and its power stations. Ward 3 includes the suburb of Onverwacht, west of the town centre of Lephalale and the township of Marapong which is northwest of Lephalale and adjacent to the Exxaro Grootegeluk Coal Mine. The municipality is part of the Waterberg which includes towns such as Bela Bela and Modimolle.

The 2021 local government elections: The DA won by a six-vote, razor-thin margin, helped by an independent candidate who finished fourth with 12%. The FF+ was fifth with 7%.

While the turnout was low in both of the two most-populous voting districts, the DA had a 7% turnout gap advantage in Onverwacht compared with the ANC in Marapong.

The ANC beat the DA by 149 votes on the PR ballot. It won 39% of the vote while the DA matched its ward percentage total of 32%. The EFF finished third with 17% of the PR ballot vote, 10 percentage points ahead of the FF+ in fourth with 7%.

The provincial elections: The DA came first with 39%, while the ANC finished second on 29%. The EFF was also in the running with a 23% haul, while the FF+ was off the pace with 4%. The main reason for the gap between the DA and the ANC was the turnout differential gap between Onverwacht and Marapong. Onverwacht saw 53% of its registered voters come to the polls, while only 30% of Marapong voters showed up.

The by-election: Nico Pienaar was elected to the National Council of Provinces. The DA, ANC and EFF were joined by a host of other candidates, including an independent. The DA was hoping FF+ voters in the ward would support the party.

The DA beat the ANC by 237 votes to retain this seat. The absence of the FF+ from the ballot helped the DA, but it must be remembered that the FF+ did lose ground here in May compared with 2021.

The DA had no turnout differential advantage in this by-election, with the turnout in Onverwacht being slightly lower than the main Maropong district and considerably lower than the turnout in the sparsely populated Joe Slovo tent district.

The EFF had a good by-election in Lephalale, almost doubling its percentage support compared with 2021. It also won the Maropong district and came close to edging the ANC for the runner-up spot. The ANC’s 19-vote buffer was built on the 102-vote gap between it and the EFF in Onverwacht.

Poll: 33% (35%)

The next by-election in Gauteng will be in late October, while the next by-election in Limpopo will be in mid-November. The ANC will be very encouraged by its strong showing in the two township by-elections in Gauteng. The party will know that it has work to do in Lenasia and parts of Lephalale. The DA will be very relieved with the win in Lephalale but will wonder what happened to its much-vaunted turnout machine. The party will have a lot of questions about Lenasia. It came so close to being the most popular party in that ward in May but was upended by Al Jama-ah in the by-election.

Read more: MK shocks ANC, EFF in Marikana while DA has a night of mixed fortunes in ward polls

Al Jama-ah will be hoping this big win will spur it on to do better in other communities.

The EFF had a mixed bag. Lephalale was its best result out of all 23 by-elections but there was slippage in the townships of Gauteng, especially Kagiso. The PA would have been disappointed with some of its Gauteng township results. The two by-elections the party contested had very encouraging data. If it has similar results in other Gauteng township by-elections, then it can make big inroads in the province in 2026.

MK was unable to build on its shock Rustenburg win in the last round of by-elections. There was some growth in Kagiso for the party, but a slight decline in Tladi. DM

Read more by-election reports:

DA retains electoral mining rights in Odendaalsrus, adds to huge Free State haul with easy Mangaung wins

MK party wins KZN ward but falls short in other contests, dominant DA paints polls blue

DA sails forth in North West ward polls, despite prod by EFF in Potch

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