El Niño's legacy - SA sugar production seen 10% below average this season as KZN remains dry

12 Nov 2024

The sugar-growing areas of Mpumalanga are dry but sugar producers in the province irrigate and have done so this year without the power disruptions of the past. But for the national harvest, that has not been enough to compensate for withered yields in KwaZulu-Natal.

The spectre of last summer’s searing El Niño event continues to haunt South Africa’s agricultural landscape.

The latest ill tidings on this front came on Tuesday from SA Canegrowers, which said in a statement that South Africa’s sugar cane harvest this year is expected to be 10% lower than average in the face of “unusually drier conditions in the majority of the KwaZulu-Natal’s growing areas”.

This year’s harvest has been pegged at less than 17 million tonnes, though a precise estimate was not provided. From 2020 to 2023, the average was 18 million tonnes per season.

“The most affected areas are the North Coast, South Coast, and Midlands, but the drier-than-usual season affected most growers across KwaZulu-Natal,” SA Canegrowers said.

The sugar-growing areas of Mpumalanga are also dry, but commercial sugar producers in the province irrigate and have done so this year without the power disruptions of the past. But for the national harvest, this has not been enough to compensate for the withered yields in KZN.

Three of South Africa’s 12 sugar mills have closed a month ahead of schedule, as a result.

“The 2024 season’s reduced yield underscores the increasing vulnerability of our industry to climate pressures, particularly for our rain-fed growers. While we are fortunate to still meet local demand, the reduced export potential impacts our growers’ income and the broader economy,” said Higgins Mdluli, chairman of SA Canegrowers.

Irrigation is a game-changer

There are more than 24,000 small-scale cane growers in KZN and Mpumalanga and they are reliant on the rain, underscoring the gulf that still separates them from large commercial operations. Irrigation is a game-changer.

Read more: The chances of La Niña forming are fading, Australian weather service says

Elsewhere in the region, small-scale farmers of the staple maize and other crops in Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi and Mozambique are reeling in El Niño’s wake, with as many as 30 million in need of food aid in the coming months.

For sugar producers in KZN, there is a glimmer of hope for next season as the SA Weather Service’s latest long-range forecast calls for above-normal rainfall over most of South Africa’s northeast, including parts of KZN, this summer.

Read more: Above-normal rainfall predicted for South Africa’s northeast: a summer shift in weather patterns

Hopes of a La Niña — which usually brings drenching rains to this region — forming this summer are fast fading. But the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in its neutral phase between the extremes, and that can also bode well for rainfall in these parts. DM

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Irrigation is a game-changer