ANC has close shaves in Edenburg and Hofmeyr

Eastern Cape

Ward 34 (Hofmeyr Luxolweni) in Enoch Mgijima ANC 52% (56%) DA 48% (41%).

Ward 34 has three distinct parts to it. The small farming town of Hofmeyr which sits near Cradock, Burgersdorp, Steynsburg and Tarkastad. In 2016, the DA won the voting district in the town of Hofmeyr. The most vote-rich district is in the township of Luxolweni, which is next to Hofmeyr. This is an ANC stronghold and where the ANC sewed up the ward in 2016. The remaining six voting districts fall in or near the Tarkastad district. These are small, sparsely populated districts centred on farms in the region. The DA did well in these districts in 2016, but there are very few votes to be won in this part of the ward.

The ANC won the ward by 323 votes in 2016. During the May provincial elections, the ANC prevailed here by over 500 votes. That margin was cut to 78 votes in this by-election. What helped the ANC edge out the DA was the turnout differential in the township of Luxolweni. Turnout in Luxolweni, the most vote-rich district in the ward, was at 61%. Turnout in Hofmeyr, which leans to the DA, was at 57%. Turnout in the voting districts around the Tarkastad district ranged between 20% and 31%. While the ANC built up a 201-vote buffer in Luxolweni, it was way down from the 439-vote buffer in 2016. The DA were able to get 72 more votes than the ANC in Hofmeyr, and 51 more votes than the ANC at the stations scattered across the Tarkastad district.

This was an encouraging result for the DA, while the ANC will breathe a sigh of relief as they managed to cling to this seat.

Turnout was 53% (67%).

Ward 7 (Mount Ayliff) in Umzimvubu ANC 86% (73%). EFF 13% (6%) AIC 1%.

Ward 7 is mainly in the town of Mount Ayliff. Mount Ayliff is on the national N2 road between Kokstad and Mount Frere.

The ANC had a dominant hold in Ward 7 to get their best result of this round of by-elections. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) also showed good growth in the ward. It must be noted that the United Democratic Movement (UDM) did not contest here. They came second in the ward in 2016.

Towns like Mount Ayliff are the bedrock of ANC support in the Eastern Cape. The party will be delighted by this strong showing.

Turnout 26% (54%)

Ward 5 (Kati-Kati Ndumangeni) in Amahlati – ANC hold. Uncontested

The ward includes townships and villages in and around Cathcart and Stutterheim on the N6 and Thomas River, and the mission station of Keilands and the village of Bolo.

The ANC had no challengers here. In 2016 they got 81% on the proportional representation (PR) ballot. This is another part of the Eastern Cape where the ANC remains way ahead of any meaningful challenge.

Free State

Ward 8 (Edenburg Ha-Rasebai) in Kopanong ANC 50% (78%) Independent-Johanne 40% DA 7% (14%) EFF 3% (4%)

Edenburg sits south of Bloemfontein on the N1 national road between Bloemfontein and Trompsburg and also straddles the R717 road. Ha-Rasebai is the township next to the town.

The ANC were given a major run for their money in this safe seat in the southern Free State. Thuso Johanne, a former #FeesMustFall activist and independent candidate, racked up 40% of the vote to lose by 165 votes to the ANC. In 2016 the ANC won here by over 1,300 votes. This result will concern the ANC greatly, as independent candidates in the Free State continue to pose a threat to the party and its dominance in the province. This by-election took place a few months after the independents won 10 seats off the ANC in Maluti a Phofung.

The ANC won both voting districts but lost ground in Ha-Rasebai where their vote share fell from 90% to 52% and in Edenburg where their vote share fell from 56% to 43%. It must be noted that turnout in Ha-Rasebai (59%) was considerably higher than Edenburg (39%).

It was also a disappointing result for the DA. The decreased returns are linked to the lower turnout in Edenburg.

Turnout 53% (64%)

Gauteng

Ward 92 (Germiston Highway Gardens Homestead) DA 83% (79%) ANC 13% (11%) EFF 4% (6%).

This is a ward in Germiston in Ekurhuleni. The ward includes the suburbs of Highway Gardens, Homestead, Primrose East, and Klopper Park. The ANC dominates in the area of Elandsfontein.

The DA had a convincing win in the by-election. They exhibited growth in every voting district carried by them in 2016. It must be noted that the Freedom Front Plus (VF+) did not contest here. Incidentally, the DA candidate was former Gauteng Member of the Provincial Legislature (MPL), Graham Gersbach. In Elandsfontein, the ANC stronghold, the DA did lose some ground, falling from 21% to 16%. The ANC’s vote share in Elandsfontein went from 45% to 61% as they took votes from both the EFF and the DA in this district.

While turnout in the more Afrikaans speaking suburb of Klopper Park was very low, there was not a major distinction in the other districts between English-speaking and Afrikaans-speaking suburbs. The DA will be satisfied with this strong win.

It must be noted that turnout in metros tends to be low. This is true for both ANC and DA held seats.

Turnout 24% (67%).

KwaZulu-Natal

Ward 9 (Empangeni Wood and Raw) in uMhlathuze ANC 50% (52%) IFP 27% (12%) DA 16% (31%) Ind-Majola 6% EFF 1% (3%).

Ward 9 includes the suburbs of Richem and Grantham Park in Empangeni. The most vote rich part of the ward is centred around the Wood and Raw farm on the outskirts of Empangeni.

The ANC lost a bit of ground in the by-election but had a comfortable hold as the major shift in the by-election occurred in the suburbs of Grantham Park and Richem, where many DA voters shifted their vote to the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP). The DA went from first to third place in both suburbs as the ANC beat the IFP by one vote in Richem and the IFP edged out the ANC in Grantham Park.

Turnout in Wood and Raw was at 38% while turnout in Grantham Park was at 25% and turnout in Richem was 30%.

KwaZulu-Natal was one of the few bright spots for the DA in the national and provincial elections in May. They have struggled in by-elections in the province since May, and this result will be another point of concern. This was an encouraging result for the new IFP leader, Velenkosini Hlabisa.

Turnout was 32% (60%).

The next round of by-elections will be on 6 November when the ANC defends a marginal rural seat in Mpofana (Rietvlei Mooi River) against the IFP and the DA defends two marginal seats – Blue Crane Route (Somerset East Aeroville) and Msunduzi (Pietermaritzburg Central Scottsville). DM