ANC swats aside PAC challenge for landslide win in Eastern Cape ward

23 Jan 2025

The ANC laid down an Eastern Cape marker by cruising to victory in the lone by-election on 22 January. The party faced very little threat from the Pan Africanist Congress of Azania in the villages of Seymour and Hogsback in the Raymond Mhlaba municipality.

Ward 4 (Seymour Hogsback) Raymond Mhlaba, Amathole: ANC 95% (77%) PAC 5% (2%)

The setting: Most voters in Ward 4 live in and around the small town of Seymour, which is on the R67 regional road linking KwaMaqoma (formerly Fort Beaufort) with Whittlesea. There are also voting districts in the villages of Hertzog and Cathcartvale, next to the R67. The ward includes Hogsback, a village high up in the Amathole mountains and the finishing point for the much-vaunted Amatola hiking trail. Raymond Mhlaba extends to KwaMaqoma, Bedford and Adelaide.

The 2021 local government election: The ANC won more than three-quarters of the vote, winning by large margins in Seymour and Hertzog. It won more than 90% of the vote in four of the seven voting districts, and also won in Cathcartvale with 77%. The small settlement of Tambokiesvlei was more competitive, with the ANC edging the DA. The DA won the Hogsback voting district. The party finished in second place in the ward with 11%. The EFF was third with 7% and the PAC a distant fourth with 2%.

Read more: By-elections hub

The ANC won 33 of the 45 seats in Raymond Mhlaba. It did lose three seats to independent candidates. The EFF and the DA won three seats each. Of the three parties to win a single seat, the PAC received the fewest votes in Raymond Mhlaba.

The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC crushed the opposition, amassing 80% of the vote in Ward 4, slightly down from 82% in 2019. The DA came second with 10%, a percent down from 2019. The EFF was third with 5%, narrowly up from its 4% return in 2019. The PAC finished eighth in the ward with 0.34%, up from its 10th-place finish in 2019.

The ANC slipped from 81% to 77% in Raymond Mhlaba. The EFF was runner-up with 10%, narrowly up from 9% in 2019. The DA was third again, getting 6%, down from 7% in 2019. The PAC was fifth with 1%. It was slightly up from its 2019 showing but still far off the pace.

The by-election: The ward councillor resigned. Only the PAC stepped up to challenge the ANC. The ANC won by a big landslide, bagging more than 90% of the vote in six of the seven voting districts and 95% in five of them. The ANC did best at Cathcartvale where 99% of those who came out to vote put their cross next to the ANC candidate.

The PAC was only able to get into double figures at one of the voting stations, taking 12% in Tambokiesvlei. The lowest turnout for the by-election was in Hogsback where 23% of registered voters came out to vote. This is the district where the DA performs best. Results like this show why the Eastern Cape is such a key province for the ANC. In many wards across this vote-rich province it remains the only political option.

Poll: 44% (44%)

The next round of by-elections will be on 2 February when activity moves to the most populous province, Gauteng. The ANC will defend a seat in Bekkersdal in Rand West City. The DA will hope to fend off its opponents in Vaal Marina, in a ward that borders the Free State and Mpumalanga in the only municipality governed by the DA in Gauteng-Midvaal. DM

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Ward 4 (Seymour Hogsback) Raymond Mhlaba, Amathole: ANC 95% (77%) PAC 5% (2%)