ANC stamps authority on North West ward for energising boost in run-up to 29 May polls, MK fizzles

16 May 2024

The ANC made a big statement in the final by-election before the 2024 national elections by winning more than 70% of the vote in a rural ward in the Bojanala Platinum District of North West. It was the second consecutive disappointing result for the uMkhonto Wesizwe party in an area of the country far removed from KwaZulu-Natal.

Ward 1 Madibeng (Legonyane Borakalalo) in Bojanala in North West: ANC 70% (57%) EFF 29% (29%) MK 1%

The setting: Ward 1 is a vast ward which includes 10 voting districts. It extends to the Limpopo border near Thabazimbi. It includes the Borakalalo Nature Reserve and Klipvoordam. The ward is north of Brits, and northwest of Jericho. Most voters here live in Legonyane Boots and in Fafung. Fafung sits underneath the Borakalalo Nature Reserve.

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC beat the EFF by a margin of just under two votes to one. It carried nine of the 10 voting districts, with the EFF winning the most populous district around Legonyane. The ANC had a run for its money in two of the nine districts it carried, including one in which the DA and Freedom Front Plus (FF+) both won more than 20% of the vote. The DA finished third in the ward with 8%. The ANC’s best result was in the small voting district of Klipvoorstad where it won 95%.

The ANC retained its outright majority in Madibeng. It lost two seats to finish on 44 in the 82-seat council. The support it lost went mainly to Save Madibeng which won three seats. The EFF became the official opposition as it matched its 14-seat haul from 2016. The DA lost three seats to finish on 12. The FF+ was the main beneficiary here, growing from two seats to four.

The by-election: The ANC beat the EFF by 954 votes in a convincing victory. This was significantly higher than its 584-vote victory in 2021. The EFF was able to win the Legonyane district again, and by a slightly bigger margin. However, turnout was lower compared with most other voting districts. The ANC won 100% of the vote in the Atlanta voting district, but turnout was extremely low, indicating that the DA and FF+ voters in this district did not participate in this by-election.

The ANC won between 70% and 97% of the vote in the remaining eight districts. The party will also be happy with the higher turnout in the by-election compared with the local government elections.

When one considers all of the by-elections that have taken place since the 2021 local government elections, the Bojanala Platinum District has been the happiest of hunting grounds for the ANC. Its performances here have been stellar, with a consistent pattern of better returns, or at worst similar returns since the local government elections. This is significant because this is where about 45% of North West voters reside. The ANC will be energised by this result and believe that all is on track in the province.

The MK party had good by-election returns in its first three outings. It has since contested by-elections in the Eastern Cape and North West, where its returns were dismal. This suggests the party should focus its energy for the last 13 days of the election campaign on KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and Mpumalanga.

Poll: 50% (47%)

This was the final by-election before the national elections on 29 May. By-elections will return on 11 June when the ANC will defend a safe seat in Limpopo. DM

Read more in Daily Maverick: Patriotic Alliance shocks ANC, DA in Western Cape wards, local party bags historic win

Read more in Daily Maverick: 2024 elections

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Ward 1 Madibeng (Legonyane Borakalalo) in Bojanala in North West: ANC 70% (57%) EFF 29% (29%) MK 1%