ANC’s Streets of Fire — 24 hours of action and surprise traction

In what used to be called “normal times”, the idea of an ANC national chairperson having to pack up and leave a Cosatu congress after being denied the opportunity to speak for a second day in a row would be a massive story.

But, in our swirling world of eternal contradictions, this shocking event is probably eclipsed by the KwaZulu-Natal ANC’s endorsements that appear to have shown the clear limitations of former president Jacob Zuma’s political power. It may be the most important development in our politics for some time.

On Tuesday morning, Zuma issued a statement saying that he was available for the position of ANC chair. He also said that he believed Cogta Minister Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma was the best candidate to lead the ANC.

Just a few short hours later, the KZN ANC formally exposed his weakness.

Instead of nominating him and/or Dlamini Zuma, they formally nominated Dr Zweli Mkhize for the position of ANC leader, to oppose President Cyril Ramaphosa at the party’s elective conference in December.

In a sense, this moment may be even more humiliating for Zuma than the one when Ramaphosa was announced as the new leader at the party’s 2017 conference. There are two reasons for this.

The first is that it shows that even in KZN, Zuma’s political power has disappeared. Despite several meetings with KZN ANC officials in recent times and a very public statement, his will has not prevailed.

As the ANC chair, Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe put it at the Cosatu congress, Zuma wanting to be ANC chair at the age of 81 was “the joke of the year”. (Zuma is 80 years old — Ed)

Second, and perhaps more importantly, it also shows that Zuma’s power is at an end. At least in 2017 he still had some constituency.

Now he has… not much of it left — if any.

The importance of this cannot be overstated. It is also the end of the idea of the ANC being two factions or groups contesting each other, and a reminder of how it is now a series of groups of shifting interests and evolving alliances.

Read more in Daily Maverick: “Everybody wants to rule the world: Zweli Mkhize’s ‘the more, the merrier’ belies the future ANC reality”

This dynamic, this idea of different groups of people organising over common and mostly non-ideological interests may also be partially responsible for the latest developments in the Tripartite Alliance: once again, Cosatu and the SACP may be preparing to go their own way.

Mantashe was clearly angry as he left, or as it was reported, “abandoned”, the Cosatu congress. He said that he had been prepared to speak on Monday and again on Tuesday, but he was not going to “grovel”.

He described the situation as a “divorce”, where one party to the marriage had made their position intensely clear.

Indications of a fragile alliance

Meanwhile, also speaking at the Cosatu congress, SACP leader Solly Mapaila said that his party was ready to contest elections.

While the SACP has made this point many times, the context of Cosatu’s treatment of Mantashe may give this message an added power. It suggests that the alliance is much more fragile than it has ever been.

While some of this may well be due to the anger that Cosatu members feel towards the ANC as their “employer” through the government, there is perhaps another issue at play.

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There is much evidence from voting figures that we are moving towards an age of coalitions, and while the ANC may still be the biggest player, its age of dominance could be over. This gives political formations multiple paths to power. Instead of having to be in the alliance to exert power, it may be more effective to be outside the alliance and vote with the ANC on a case-by-case basis.

These developments will soon make it much harder for SACP leaders to explain to their members why they are not going it alone.

At the same time, Cosatu members are so angry with the government and the ANC that it may be hard for leaders there to restrain their frustration and argue they should remain in any kind of relationship with the ANC.

This dynamic may soon become impossible to control.

Mashatile and Mokonyane

While the ANC and the movements around it are growing apart, there are two people who appear to be forming a strong coalition within ANC ranks.

While the KZN ANC says it is supporting Mkhize for the leadership of the party, it is also backing Paul Mashatile for the position of deputy leader and Nomvula Mokonyane for that of deputy secretary-general.

Mashatile and Mokonyane appear to be gaining support from the leaderships of several provinces — they already have the backing of Gauteng and the Eastern Cape.

Those two provinces are also backing Ramaphosa for a second term, so the real importance of this is that Mashatile and Mokonyane are getting support across the Ramaphosa/Mkhize divide. Or to put it as we used to understand the ANC, they are backed by both slates.

At this moment they seem to be in a strong position to win those positions.

That does not, however, necessarily mean that they will prevail in the longer term. They appear to be in a similar position to where Deputy President David Mabuza was five years ago. He had more branch nominations than anyone else and was virtually assured of winning the deputy leadership of the ANC. This propelled him to the position of Deputy President of the country.

But now, five years later, he appears to have lost support. Virtually no one has publicly suggested he should remain in the ANC’s top six national officials. This may well be a consequence of the fact that he was on both slates in 2017.

Arguably, the same happened in 2007. Then, Kgalema Motlanthe was on both slates and became South African president for a time. Five years later, he lost by a virtual landslide in the leadership race against Zuma and ended up in the political wilderness. (In the longer run, this may well have been deliberate.)

Zondo Commission findings

There is another dynamic to this which may turn out to be decisive for the ANC’s electoral fortunes in two years’ time.

Mokonyane featured extensively at the Zondo Commission, having to answer questions about money, food and alcohol delivered to her home by the company Bosasa.

The commission found that she should be investigated and possibly charged with corruption for receiving these items. The ANC has consistently said that it supports the Zondo Commission and respects its outcomes.

Here, however, is an ANC elite member against whom findings were made and who still received strong support from the party’s branches around the country to run for a position in its top six.

While her supporters and the ANC itself may raise purely technical points about how she has not yet been charged, voters are not bound by these limitations. They can decide for themselves whether the ANC is serious when it says it’s determined to stop corruption.

While dynamics around Zuma and the alliance may come and go (and in the case of Zuma, presumably just go, never to return) the corruption issue will be central to the ANC’s future. If it fails to convince voters that it is renewing itself, it will run a stronger risk of losing power.

The past 24 hours of swirl may just prove to be the most decisive for the ANC’s political fate. DM