As Andile Ramaphosa’s link with Bosasa grows deep, what kind of damage to his father?

More questions will be posed about President Cyril Ramaphosa’s probity. At the same time, questions will be raised about the perceived corruption in our politics generally, and of course, whether this will impact the election in any significant way.

The connection between Bosasa and Andile Ramaphosa – that the company gave what was described first as a “loan” to Andile Ramaphosa, the president’s son, that was then used for his ANC leadership campaign war chest – is already well-known to South African public. The matter is before the Public Protector, Advocate Busisiwe Mkhwebane (who is also involved in a dispute with Ramaphosa’s State Security Minister Dipuo Letsatsi-Dube over an intelligence document).

But in this latest revelation, News 24 reports that Andile Ramaphosa has confirmed to them that he was involved in a contractual relationship with Bosasa. Under the contract, he received a retainer, through a company known as Blue Crane Capital (the Blue Crane is our national bird).

Andile Ramaphosa says he regrets getting involved with Bosasa, and that he missed “red flags” that should have alerted him to problems with the company. It is hard to see how someone as politically aware as Andile Ramaphosa could miss the “red flags”. The claims around Bosasa have been around for long before Angelo Agrizzi’s testimony at the Zondo Commission. A brief Google search would have revealed reporting on claims of corruption against this firm for over a decade now.

The crucial issue here is whether or not Andile Ramaphosa in fact provided services in return for the money that he received. This seems to be a slightly murky area.

When it comes to “advisory services” and “business development” in foreign countries, it can be difficult to determine what these services might be worth. In some cases, billions, in others the payments may signify something else.

There will be those with strong motives to question whether in fact, this was simply a way for Bosasa to give the Ramaphosa family money very much in the same way it has apparently given other ANC figures over long periods.

To complicate matters further, the Zondo Commission into State Capture has now heard testimony about how Angelo Agrizzi was trying to muscle the Watson brothers out of certain lucrative contracts with Correctional Services.

In other words, this could all be part of a much more complicated politics around who gets what from whom, in what looks like a corrupt manner.

So what does this means for President Cyril Ramaphosa, and our politics more generally?

Unfortunately, a perception that all politicians are corrupt has already sunk in, with many voters so this new revelation may not move the dial at all in the elections. But it is hard to tell. Certainly, this may move some white voters who were thinking of voting for “Ramaphosa’s New Dawn” away from the ANC. Other influences are at play here too, not least of which are the candidates for the National Assembly that are on the ANC’s party list.

The opposition parties, of course, will see this as a gift. The DA is likely to use the last week of campaigning to make the point that there is very little difference between the two sons, Duduzane and Andile. They were already expected to make the claim that a vote for Ramaphosa’s ANC is really a vote for “Zuma’s ANC”. That claim may now be easier to make.

However, the tone could be important here. When Jacob Zuma was president, he and those around him (including Duduzane) tended to deny, deny, deny. Then, if they were caught with obvious evidence against them, claims of conspiracy would emerge. Both Ramaphosa and Andile Ramaphosa use a different tactic. They apologise, admit wrongdoing, and promise never to do it again, which may make a difference in how it plays out with the electorate.

A much bigger question may well be what Ramaphosa’s opponents within the ANC try to do with Andile Ramaphosa’s revelations. His opponents within the ANC have not yet made much of the half a million rand payment to him, perhaps because they know that there are smallanyana skeletons in their own campaigning closets. But repeated payments to Andile Ramaphosa might be the ammunition they’ve been looking for.

Their tactics could be interesting. There are those who feel the Public Protector is being used against Ramaphosa, and thus another complaint could be lodged with her. Should Mkhwebane make a finding against Ramaphosa around these payments, or the original payment, he might face the difficult decision to simply accept it (despite what might be his misgivings about her motive) or to fight it in court.

Should he decide to fight it in court, it would complicate any effort by his supporters to remove Mkhwebane using their power in Parliament after the election. This would appear to be a benefit to the Zuma faction in the ANC, amid a perception that Mkhwebane is part of their WhatsApp group (she is also investigating a complaint against Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan in relation to the early retirement of Ivan Pillay. This is the case that Advocate Shaun Abrahams withdrew when he was head of the NPA).

In essence, just this one problem might give Mkhwebane important protection for some time.

During elections, it can be important for a political party to have some good news. This can be manufactured in some ways. Some parties claim their own polls (which we never actually see) show they’re making progress. In government, certain arrangements can be made. And in what is surely a sheer coincidence the board of Sanral announced on Wednesday that it would suspend the issuing of summons for people who haven’t paid their etolls. This is an issue that only affects people in Gauteng. And Gauteng is the province in play in this election. Up until this point, there has simply been no good news at all for the ANC. Rather, it has all been bad news. That could lead to a presumption that its share of the vote must decline.

But we have been here before. Five years ago the bad news kept coming, it was all about Nkandla and Zuma. And that did not lead to a huge decline in the number of votes it received. The DA does not appear, from what can be seen, to be making significant gains from the ANC’s bad news, while the EFF appears to be on the march.

All of which makes it feel very much like it’s 2014 all over again. DM