As Minusma exits Mali questions remain on regional leaders’ ability to address security challenges

On 30 June the United Nations (UN) Security Council voted unanimously to end the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (Minusma) as of 31 December 2023. The vote follows a request by Mali’s transitional government for the mission to be withdrawn ‘without delay.’

Minusma was deployed in July 2013. Northern Mali had been occupied by armed groups in 2012, and was liberated by the Franco-African military intervention launched in January 2013. 

In May 2022 Mali withdrew from the G5 Sahel and soon after that, the French-led Barkhane and Takuba forces departed the country. The end of Minusma marks another step in dismantling the international security response to the crisis in Mali and the Sahel. 

Cracks appeared between Bamako and Paris as early as January 2013 over the liberation of Kidal. But the active deconstruction of bilateral and multilateral cooperation mechanisms was triggered by Mali’s realignment with Russia after the West African country’s second coup in May 2021, and the ensuing diplomatic crisis with France. Mali’s decision to explore new military alliances reflects a dissatisfaction with the partnerships forged over the past decade. Lessons must be learnt from this. 

Diplomatic and geopolitical tensions — exacerbated by the polarisation between the West and Russia over the Ukraine war — have also tested Mali’s regional partnerships. Relations with the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) and G5 Sahel were most affected. Mali’s transitional authorities perceive both bodies as being under French influence. 

France’s leading role in Minusma’s initial political and military set-up and its position as the penholder on the Malian situation at the UN Security Council have fed successive Malian governments’ suspicion about the mission.

As a result, the transitional authorities have denounced the politicisation of human rights issues by Western powers, after civilian deaths and abuses occurred during operations carried out by the Malian Armed Forces since 2022. This is in addition to the limitations of Minusma’s military mandate, which mainly provided for stabilisation operations and didn’t meet the country’s counter-terrorism objectives.

However, Mali’s demand for the withdrawal of Minusma carries significant political, security and humanitarian risks for the country and the region. Although the government seems confident in its ability to assume full control post-Minusma, a clearly defined alternative strategy is needed. 

At this stage, enhanced military cooperation with Russia and bilateral collaboration with some immediate neighbours seem to be at the heart of Mali’s strategy. However, the authorities must remember that solutions from outside Africa that entail financial or technical dependency come with external constraints that could affect their durability and effectiveness.

Minusma’s withdrawal and the cross-border nature of the risks facing the Sahel and West Africa also call on the African Union (AU) and Ecowas to play a greater role in supporting Mali’s government efforts.