Beyond visibility: how data-driven policing strategies could revolutionize crime reduction in South Africa

South Africa faces some of the highest crime rates globally. Murders, carjackings, home invasions, violent robberies and extortion have become alarmingly routine in many areas. The idea of visible policing is increasingly being seen by the South African Police Service (SAPS) as essential to addressing the problem, especially through police patrols and boots on the ground. 

The emphasis on police visibility raises an important question: could simply increasing police patrols on the streets play a part in curbing South Africa’s crime crisis? 

As a strategy, ramping up the presence of police through patrols is far from new – and can be problematic. It has been a foundational element of visible policing in South Africa for decades. However, the effectiveness of this approach is still up for debate.

At first glance, strengthening police visibility through more patrols seems an obvious and necessary means to reduce crime. A higher police presence should, after all, act as a deterrent while providing the public with a greater sense of safety. 

But without a strategic framework guiding these efforts, the results may be underwhelming. Simply adding more officers without a clear focus generally wastes valuable resources and is unlikely to keep crime levels down in the medium term. 

To make visible patrols effective, South Africa needs to adopt a focused approach driven by data analysis. This is where evidence-based policing (EBP) comes into play. EBP uses data, research and proven strategies to inform police operations. In addition to relying on traditional policing practices or individual experience or intuition, EBP stresses the need to monitor and test interventions to assess their ability to reduce crime. 

EBP studies have shown that some visible patrols – especially in urban areas – are more effective than others. For example, EBP experiments in the US suggest that increased random patrols have little, if any, impact on crime. In contrast, targeted data-driven patrols are more effective. 

A policing intervention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, found that targeted police foot patrols in specific hotspots saw greater crime reductions compared with control areas. A hotspot operation in Sacramento, California, which involved police carrying out frequent 15-minute foot patrols on high-crime streets, showed similar results.

These studies suggest that by using crime data to pinpoint hotspots down to street and block level, police can be deployed to areas where they are most needed, ensuring their resources are used efficiently. However, more research is needed in countries like South Africa, where crime overlaps with acute social, economic and infrastructural challenges.

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) recently piloted EBP hotspot policing projects in Mitchells Plain, Delft, Khayelitsha, Nyanga and Gugulethu in Cape Town. The trial involved SAPS and Law Enforcement Advancement Plan (LEAP) patrollers from the Western Cape government and City of Cape Town. The evaluation is ongoing, but tentative findings show positive effects on violent crime levels in the hotspots.

The project offers a glimpse into what a more sophisticated approach to visible policing might look like in South Africa. It is not just about deploying more officers and resources on the streets. Instead, research and evidence must be used to understand where they are needed, how they can be most effective, and what effect their presence is actually having.

While visible patrols can work under these conditions, oversurveillance is a significant concern. Even the best data-driven police strategies will fall short if efforts to improve community relations are neglected. People living and working in areas subjected to constant police surveillance often feel criminalised, and this can foster distrust between residents and law enforcement. 

This happened in the US, where overpolicing in minority neighbourhoods in three Michigan cities led to feelings of alienation and resentment. This is relevant in South Africa, where levels of confidence in the police are low. Without attempts to engage and build trust with communities, oversurveillance could backfire, making people feel less secure and resentful towards law enforcement.

South Africa must avoid a one-dimensional approach to visible policing. Instead, a greater police presence must be informed by evidence-based methods to direct resources effectively. This involves using international experience in targeted patrols when designing hotspot operations, and monitoring their impact closely. 

Interventions must also foster genuine trust within communities. In Bogota, for example, police combined intensive operations with municipal services projects to improve perceptions of police legitimacy. This approach delivered a 45.6% greater decrease in reported crimes in the hotspots than in the control areas.

Without these vital components, visible patrols may not work and could even backfire. By aligning policing strategies with data-driven insights and actively working with communities, South Africa can achieve a more effective and equitable approach to reducing crime. DM

Asive Xali, Intern and Vanya Gastrow, Senior Researcher, Justice and Violence Prevention, Institute for Security Studies (ISS). 

First published by ISS Today.