Beyond the Weaver Work metaphor, it’s time to be realistic about South Africa’s potential futures

Since the launch of the Indlulamithi 2035 Scenarios, one of the three trajectories has grabbed much of the media attention. At the opening of Parliament in July this year, President Cyril Ramaphosa concluded his speech by referencing Scenario 3 – “Weaver Work: The Cooperation Nation”.

He implied that the success of South Africa’s government of national unity (GNU) demands that everyone emulate the weaver bird – in particular the sociable weaver, which builds a massive communal nest that is kept together through the collective input of the entire colony.

Representatives from other political parties, both within the GNU and those occupying the opposition benches, have also referred to the Weaver Work scenario. Interestingly, some parties within the GNU have positively embraced this scenario, while a number of members from opposition parties have used the scenario to slam the GNU.

Ultimately, of the three scenarios we have developed, Weaver Work has attracted the most attention, and in doing so it has obscured the other two potential pathways explored in the other Indlulamithi 2035 scenarios.

Moreover, the attention has largely been on the positive aspects of the Weaver Work scenario, with little engagement of the challenges that have to be overcome to achieve a cooperation nation.

The parliamentary debate around the Indlulamithi Scenarios is encouraging because it shines a spotlight on these important planning tools and reminds South African political parties that the path we take in the future is a choice, not an inevitability.

However, failing to engage with the other two less-desirable scenarios could potentially lead us to gloss over challenges (both internal and external) whose impact on the trajectory of the country is possibly detrimental.

The Hadeda Home or “Recrimination Nation” scenario is characterised by a lot of noise, much like the hadeda bird, but with little movement on service delivery.

The “Desperation Nation”, represented by the most powerful scavenger, the vulture, is a scenario that explores a reality where criminal syndicates loot and pillage, leaving nothing for others.

Interestingly, various forms of coalition governments feature across all three scenarios, and this was informed by one of the key driving forces (KDFs) which entails state weakness and declining accountability. The other KDFs to the scenarios are the low economic growth trap and internal security threats.

It is now more than 100 days of the GNU and we cannot ignore the key drivers towards any of the three scenarios, including the Weaver Work. 

If we pay close attention to the driving forces, it becomes evident that we are not on a positive trajectory. The Indlulamithi Barometer for the previous scenarios supports this – that we are currently living in the worst-case scenario, given the high levels of social inequality, a key driver of the previous scenarios.

The perception survey that was released in November 2023 also shows that South Africans are largely disappointed and frustrated with empty promises that bear little fruit and are totally numbed to the many crises happening around us.

So, the ground is very fertile for ruptures and conflict, which incidentally also informs the lead-up to the formation of the Weaver Work nation.

If those citing the Weaver Work Scenario took the time to read more about what it takes to build a “Cooperation Nation”, they would know that it all comes down to an active citizenry and social movements that spill out into the streets of South Africa, creating a protest nation that resembles that of the 1980s and 1990s.

As a result of this rupture, a broad coalition emerges on the basis of listening to the people and building collectively with those social movements and business so that the collective can thrive and recover from disruptions or disasters.

While there is no denying that our country faces immense challenges, our history shows how collective action can pull us out of a bad situation, just as we did in our fight against apartheid.

However, this can only happen when we can acknowledge where we are, be realistic about the path we are on, and be willing to work together to shift our trajectory towards a more mutually beneficial situation. DM