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Biden will halt weapons supply if Israel attacks Rafah; Israeli war bill at $16bn

Biden will halt weapons supply if Israel attacks Rafah; Israeli war bill at $16bn
Bloomberg
By Bloomberg
10 May 2024
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US President Joe Biden said he would halt additional shipments of offensive weapons to Israel if the country launched a ground invasion of Rafah, decrying the potential loss of civilian life as ‘just wrong’.

Israel has racked up a bill of 60 billion shekels ($16-billion) after seven months of war, leaving its budget deficit on a path to blow past this year’s target absent government action to stabilise finances.

The UK would not support a major Israeli operation in Rafah, Foreign Secretary David Cameron said, echoing the stance of the US but stopping short of matching President Joe Biden’s warning that he would stop additional weapons shipments to the Middle East nation if it went ahead. 

Biden warns he will delay more weapons if Israel attacks Rafah


US President Joe Biden said he would halt additional shipments of offensive weapons to Israel if the country launched a ground invasion of Rafah, decrying the potential loss of civilian life as “just wrong”.

“We’re going to continue to make sure Israel is secure in terms of Iron Dome and their ability to respond to attacks that came out of the Middle East recently,” Biden said in an interview with CNN, referring to air defence weaponry. “But it’s just wrong. We’re not going to supply the weapons and artillery shells.”

The remarks came after the US paused delivery of about 3,500 bombs to Israel — including 2,000-pound (900kg) explosives that could cause massive damage in the densely packed southern Gaza city of Rafah — amid mounting frustration over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s conduct of the war against Hamas. The move marked the Biden administration’s most serious signal of displeasure since the conflict began seven months ago. 

“Civilians have been killed in Gaza as a consequence of those bombs and other ways in which they go after population centres,” Biden said.

Netanyahu hadn’t publicly responded by Thursday afternoon. However, some members of his coalition government were outspoken, with Itamar Ben Gvir, the far-right national security minister, using a heart emoji to describe the relationship between Biden and Hamas. 

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said Rafah should be attacked and “the sooner the better”, while Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel “cannot be subdued — we will achieve our goals in the northern and southern arenas”.

Read more: US arms delay to Israel brings anxiety and talk of self-reliance

US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said the US was reviewing “other potential weapon systems”. A congressional aide and an administration official, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations, said another pending arms sale had been under review for months — a potential $260-million deal between Boeing and Israel for as many as 6,500 tail-kits to convert unguided bombs into GPS-guided Joint Direct Attack Munitions.

As tension mounts, Biden administration officials and former officials said the moves had a clearly defined goal: exert as much pressure as possible on Israel to scale back or abandon an invasion of Rafah while being careful not to make a total break with Netanyahu’s government. More than 1.4 million civilians have taken refuge in the Gazan city near the border with Egypt, having fled a mass bombardment by the Israeli military further north.  

The administration also wants to preserve space for negotiators from the US, Egypt and Qatar, who have convened in Cairo this week to strive for a ceasefire and hostage deal between Israel and Hamas. Officials in those talks include Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns, who is trying to bring home a deal whose prospects have whipsawed between hopeful and grim.   

The sides seemed close to a deal at the weekend but the core dispute — Hamas’ desire to make the truce permanent and Israel’s that it be temporary — got in the way. 

As Israel started moving tanks toward Rafah, Hamas announced on Monday it had accepted an Egyptian proposal. But Israeli officials examining the document said it became clear some unacceptable changes had been included.

Hamas was no longer offering only living hostages in the first phase but an unspecified mix, while slowing down the pace of releases and increasing the number of Palestinian prisoners wanted in return. The group also baked into the deal that Israeli forces had to leave permanently before it got most of its hostages back. 

The offer was rejected, and talks continued.  

It all comes at a critical juncture in the conflict, which has raged since Hamas militants invaded Israel on 7 October, killing about 1,200 people and abducting 250 more. Biden is facing domestic pressure for a solution with US elections just six months away, and Israeli strikes on Rafah have the potential to significantly increase the number of civilian casualties — and even scuttle cease-fire negotiations entirely.  

The US has stepped up its criticism of Israel in recent months, saying it’s not doing enough to protect civilians and allow aid into the besieged Palestinian territory, parts of which the United Nations says are on the verge of famine. 

“There have been far too many casualties in this battle space,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in congressional testimony on Wednesday. Israel’s bombardment and ground offensive in Gaza have killed almost 35,000 people, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.  

Israel’s $16bn war bill puts budget on alarming trajectory


Israel has racked up a bill of 60 billion shekels ($16-billion) after seven months of war, leaving its budget deficit on a path to blow past this year’s target absent government action to stabilise finances.

Finance Ministry data published on Thursday showed the 12-month trailing fiscal shortfall ballooned to 7% of gross domestic product as of April, higher than the government’s estimate of 6.6% for the full calendar year of 2024. 

Expenditure surged by almost 36% in the first four months of 2024 from the same period a year earlier, of which roughly two-thirds went towards defence outlays. Revenues were down by 2.2%, mostly due to a drop in tax payments.   

As the war’s financial toll grows, Israel is on track to run one of its widest budget deficits this century. The central bank has previously estimated the total cost of the conflict will reach 255 billion shekels during 2023-2025.  

UK won’t support major Israeli operation in Rafah, says Cameron


The UK would not support a major Israeli operation in Rafah, Foreign Secretary David Cameron said, echoing the stance of the US but stopping short of matching Biden’s warning that he would stop additional weapons shipments to the Middle East nation if it went ahead.

“We would not support some major operation in Rafah unless there is a very clear plan for how to protect people,” Cameron said after a speech at the National Cyber Security Centre in London. “We haven’t seen that plan.”

The comments come after Biden said he’d halt additional shipments of offensive weapons to Israel if it proceeded with a ground invasion of Rafah.

When asked whether Britain would follow suit, Cameron said that whereas the US was a “massive state supplier of weapons to Israel”, the UK did not directly export arms and instead issued licenses to do so to defence firms. 

“They’re involved deeply in the strategic and tactical conversations with the Israelis,” Cameron said. “We have influence, we have agency, we have very frank conversations with the Israelis — but we’re not in that same position.”

Cameron said his talks with Israel were focused on allowing more aid into Gaza and ensuring compliance with international humanitarian law. 

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s spokesperson Dave Pares said UK export licences accounted for under 1% of Israel’s arms imports. 

“It’s important to recognise the context here: the UK does not directly sell arms to the Israeli government,” he told reporters at a regular briefing. “There are no arms shipments from the UK government to Israel for us to halt.” 

Slovenia to recognise Palestinian state, says premier


Slovenia’s government would begin a procedure to recognise the Palestinian state, to help stop the war in the Middle East, Prime Minister Robert Golob said on Thursday at a press conference in Ljubljana.

Golob, who has called on Israel to stop its attacks on Rafah and Gaza, said the recognition of Palestine as an independent state was a form of “pressure for the cessation of hostilities”. His government aims to conclude the procedure by June 13 at the latest. 

Slovenia advocates a two-state solution to the conflict, joining recent efforts by European Union members Spain, Ireland and Malta to recognise Palestinian statehood. DM
Read more in Daily Maverick: Israel-Palestine War

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