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Black Friday 2024: South African consumers gear up for record sales amid economic challenges

Black Friday 2024: South African consumers gear up for record sales amid economic challenges
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Lisakanya Venna
By Lisakanya Venna
21 Nov 2024
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Despite inflationary pressures and stagnant economic growth, retailers predict a bumper sales season, starting with a Black Friday bonanza.

As the holiday season approaches, South African consumers are eagerly anticipating the busy Black Friday shopping spree, seeking savings on items amid rising costs and stagnant economic growth. Despite inflationary pressures, retailers predict record sales volumes this year. 

Research, commissioned by Capital Connect, shows total retail sales for 2024 are forecasted to be 19% higher in November 2024 and 48% higher in December 2024 than the average retail sales for the first 10 months of the year.   

The data* project total retail sales of nearly R169-billion in December 2024 and R136-billion in November 2024, compared with monthly average retail sales of R114-billion for January 2024 to October 2024. 

(Source: Capital Connect. *Research conducted by the Bureau for Market Research)


Sales surge 


Despite Statistics South Africa reporting a 0.9% retail trade decline in retail trade for November last year, retailers are optimistic about bumper Black Friday sales this year due to the improved consumer confidence post-May elections as reported by Stellenbosch University’s Bureau for Economic Research. 

Independent economist Elize Kruger says the anticipated surge in consumer spending this November will be driven by several factors: 

  • Significant fuel price relief: Since June 2024, the petrol price has dropped by a cumulative R4.21 per litre while the wholesale diesel price fell by R3.63 litre since April. “Specifically comparing the fuel price in November 2024, the R21.30/litre for the 95 ULP petrol price in Gauteng is 10.9% lower than in November 2023 (R23.90/litre),” she says.

  • Interest rate cuts: Following the 25 basis points prime interest rate cut in September, the Monetary Policy Committee meeting announced another 25bps prime interest rate cut on Thursday, one week  before Black Friday. This takes the prime lending rate to 11.25%, 50bps lower compared with a year earlier, easing monthly budgets.

  • Cooling inflation pressures: Consumer inflation has moderated notably during the past 12 months, from 5.5% in November 2023 to 3.8% in September 2024. October’s forecast of 3% is set to enhance consumers’ purchasing power.


Dean Hyde, chief operating officer at PayJustNow, notes a shift in consumer sentiment: “With loadshedding behind us, signs of confidence around the early successes of the Government of National Unity (GNU) and an upward swing in retail trade sales, consumer sentiment has improved, and we anticipate this will encourage more consumers to participate in Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend when compared to 2023,” he said.

Read more: SA retail trade sales surprisingly surge in June, signalling economy probably averted a recession

Hyde says Black Friday is expected to achieve record sales volumes this year. “Essential purchases will again be the broader trend this Black Friday as consumers continue to face high cost of living and lower levels of disposable income.”  

Buy now, pay later


PayJustNow - which offers interest-free, buy-now-pay-later options - saw transactions more than double in 2023 compared with the 2022 Black Friday and Cyber Monday period, with more than 100,000 new customers added monthly since 2024, reaching 2 million overall. 

This payment option is expected to drive significant Black Friday revenue this year, as consumers seek to stretch their payments without the spectre of interest charges.

Retailers are also anticipating a shift from big-ticket items towards  essential purchases, such as electronics and back-to-school gear, with big-brand department stores such as Makro and Game likely to record high spending.

Sustained growth in e-commerce 


This growth mirrors the rising tide of e-commerce, with Absa reporting significant growth in e-commerce transactions over the past year of 25% year-on-year increase in the first quarter, 16% in the second and 19% in the third. This surge indicates consumers’ increasing preference for online shopping’s convenience, variety and efficiency.

"We’ve observed a shift towards higher online spending, with fewer but higher-value transactions. In physical stores, both total transaction numbers and turnover are growing steadily, though at a lower average ticket price, suggesting that consumers are making smaller, more frequent purchases. This trend aligns with general consumer behaviour in South Africa, where shoppers show confidence but are mindful of purchase sizes,” said Chris Wood, managing executive for product at Absa Relationship Banking. 

Absa forecasts sustained growth in online and in-store sales, with a significant boost anticipated during Black Friday.

“Digital wallet usage, especially among Absa customers who use Google Pay and Samsung Pay, has surged over the third quarter of 2024 with an average transaction value of around R320,” said Tshipi Alexander, executive for card issuing and rewards at Absa Everyday Banking.

The numbers reflect evolution that is also evident in Standard Bank’s transactional data, which show a 17% increase in online shopping in 2023, with a 30% growth in online shopping since 2021.

Demand for saving


As South Africans increasingly adopt digital payment methods, their shopping habits are also adapting to the country’s economic landscape. Amidst economic uncertainty fuelled by rising fuel prices and global instability, significant inflation has impacted essential items such as food and household products. Although food inflation declined this year, an upward tick in the price of some essential foods reversed the relief lower-income households felt from the decrease.

Read more: Food inflation dips, but many in SA still can’t afford to feed their families

In response, consumers are constantly seeking affordable solutions, driving growth in social-commerce platforms. SOLshop, a platform connecting consumers with wholesalers, has had user engagement surge 67% from January to October 2024, driven by consumers seeking savings on everyday essentials. Despite 2024’s inflation, SOLshop maintained stable prices across core categories. 

This sustained demand for deals and discounts throughout the year positions Black Friday as a prime opportunity for consumers to maximise their savings.

“In an economic environment characterised by ongoing low growth and high inflation, consumers are increasingly interested in our platform’s ability to provide significant savings on everyday essentials. Consistent low prices offer a beacon of hope during these challenging times,” said Gys van der Westhuizen, Head of Business Development at SOLshop.

These insights highlight Black Friday’s increasing demand in South Africa, with 2023’s record-breaking numbers cementing its status as a premier retail event. With the annual sale under way, expectations are high for an even stronger showing this year. DM

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