South Africa

South Africa, Sport, World

Boks to lead southern hemisphere rampage in unforgiving north seeking No 1 ranking

The excellent Aphelele Fassi scored two tries as the Boks ran out 48-7 winners over the Pumas in their Rugby Championship match at Mbombela Stadium. (Photo: Anton Geyser/Gallo Images)

By Jon Cardinelli

30 Oct 2024

November will be a busy month in international rugby as the Springboks and Ireland vie for the No 1 position at the end of the year.

Unlike their southern hemisphere counterparts, the Springboks are well placed to win all of their matches in Europe this November and finish the 2024 Test season with an 85% winning record.

And yet, victories against Scotland, England and Wales may not be enough to propel Rassie Erasmus’s charges to the top of the World Rugby rankings. Ireland will retain the No 1 position, unless one of New Zealand, Australia or Argentina win in Dublin over the coming weeks.

Fierce debate

South African and Irish fans have been locked in a fierce debate since the world’s two leading teams met for an epic two-match series in July. The 1-1 result yielded no definitive answers, even though Ireland were the happier of the two sides in the wake of a dramatic win in the second Test.

But the Boks have kicked on since then, claiming historic victories in Australia, as well as a drought-ending win against the All Blacks in the Freedom Cup series.

If not for the one-point loss against Argentina in Santiago, the Boks would have completed a clean sweep of their opponents in the Rugby Championship, and headed to the northern hemisphere in November as the world’s No 1-ranked team.

Nevertheless, the Boks have come a long way since that series against Ireland, and will have the opportunity to showcase their bold new approach in Edinburgh, London and Cardiff in the coming weeks.

They won’t get the chance to settle old scores with Ireland – their next fixture in Dublin is scheduled for November 2025 – but will have the chance to make a statement regarding their intent to dominate between World Cups.

The southern hemisphere has dominated the global tournament, with South Africa and New Zealand accounting for the past five titles.

Since the late 2010s, however, Ireland and to a lesser extent France have led the way in the inter-hemisphere battles, particularly in matches staged in Europe.

Boks South Africa celebrate after their Rugby Championship match against Argentina at Mbombela Stadium on 28 September. (Photo: Anton Geyser / Gallo Images)

Cracking the Irish fortress

The Boks haven’t beaten Ireland in Dublin since 2012. More significantly, at least with regard to the current tour, they haven’t completed a clean sweep of their northern opponents since the sojourn to Wales, Scotland and France in 2013.

Australia haven’t won in Dublin since 2013, while the All Blacks’ last victory in the Irish capital came back in 2016.

The northern nations have been slightly more successful against Andy Farrell’s side, but it’s been three years since any team (France) beat the Irish in their own backyard.

The Boks have beaten every other side away from home since Erasmus took the coaching reins in 2018. The Aviva Stadium remains the final frontier, and there’s a good chance that Ireland’s formidable record will remain intact before the Boks arrive in November 2025.

Have the All Blacks made sufficient progress under coach Scott Robertson to launch a successful assault on the world’s top team?

They lost their Rugby Championship opener to Argentina (in New Zealand) and both fixtures in South Africa. They are in the midst of a five-match tour – having thrashed Japan 64-19 recently – and it would be a big ask to beat a much-improved England and Ireland in consecutive weeks.

The All Blacks and Wallabies will also be on tour. The Boks are hoping one of three southern hemisphere rivals will beat Ireland. (Photo: Hagen Hopkins / Getty Images)

Australia have set sail for a Grand Slam tour with modest ambitions. Nobody will expect a struggling Wallabies outfit to win all of their fixtures against England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland, and ultimately succeed where so many great Australian teams of the past have failed.

Indeed, it’s hoped that Joe Schmidt’s side remains competitive across the four-week tour, and gives stakeholders a reason to believe that the 2025 British & Irish Lions tour to Australia won’t be a one-sided rout.

Argentina are arguably the most improved team in Test rugby, but it remains to be seen which side will arrive in Europe this November. They’re good enough to win two matches on a tour that includes fixtures against Italy, Ireland and France.

From a South African point of view, many will be wondering which Pumas team will rock up in Dublin on 15 November. Argentina have won in New Zealand this season, and certainly showed their attacking class in the win against the Boks in Santiago. In the Rugby Championship finale in Mbombela, however, they leaked 48 points in a heavy defeat.

Boks in pursuit of perfect tour

The Boks won’t face either of the northern hemisphere top dogs this November, but won’t have any reason to be complacent.

The Test against Scotland in Edinburgh on 10 November will be staged only six days before the match against England in London. There’s a good chance that Erasmus will split his resources across the two fixtures, in an attempt to maintain a high level of performance.

The Boks can’t afford to take a dangerous Scotland side lightly and will be wary of making the wrong sort of history in Edinburgh.

Fourteen years ago, the Boks lost at Murrayfield, and that result ended up costing them a Grand Slam. While there’s no Grand Slam on the line this season, the Boks are determined to win all of their tour matches and become a more consistent side between World Cups.

The excellent Aphelele Fassi scored two tries as the Boks ran out 48-7 winners over the Pumas in their Rugby Championship match at Mbombela Stadium. (Photo: Anton Geyser/Gallo Images)

The clash against England promises to be the most challenging of the tour. Erasmus and many of the senior players will remember how England dominated the 2023 World Cup semifinal, until the South African Bomb Squad was deployed in the latter stages. In the rematch at Twickenham on 16 November, both teams will have a point to prove.

The Boks will expect to beat Wales in the final fixture on 23 November, given that the Dragons have lost their last nine Tests and currently languish in 11th place in the World Rugby rankings.

Erasmus could back a full-strength side for that match, or field less-experienced players such as No 8 Cameron Hanekom and utility back Jordan Hendrikse. The decision may be shaped by the Boks’ results in Edinburgh and London.

The Boks will make a statement if they win all of their tour fixtures and finish a monumental 2024 season on a high.

Meanwhile, Ireland could complete a clean sweep of the Rugby Championship teams, if they add the scalps of New Zealand, Argentina and Australia to the victory they claimed in Durban this past July. DM

North vs South this November*

Week 1

2 November

England vs New Zealand

Week 2

8 November

Ireland vs New Zealand

9 November

England vs Australia

Italy vs Argentina

10 November

Scotland vs South Africa

Week 3

15 November

Ireland vs Argentina

16 November

England v South Africa

France vs New Zealand

17 November

Wales vs Australia

Week 4

22 November

France vs Argentina

23 November

Wales vs South Africa

Italy vs New Zealand

24 November

Scotland vs Australia

Week 5

Ireland vs Australia

* Fixtures including Six Nations and Rugby Championship teams

World rugby rankings*

1 Ireland

2 South Africa

3 New Zealand

4 France

5 England

6 Argentina

7 Scotland

8 Italy

9 Fiji

10 Australia

11 Wales

* As at 1 November.

Categories:

Tags:

DM is much better if you are signed in...