Daily Maverick
Dailymaverick logo

Opinionistas

This is an opinion piece. The views expressed are not that of Daily Maverick.....

Botswana was a real change election and a textbook case for politicians across Africa

Jonathan Moakes
By Jonathan Moakes
6 Nov 2024
Facebook
1
With this groundbreaking result that shocked many, Botswana has become the trailblazer of peaceful, democratic change in the SADC region, picking up the mantle from Zambia and Lesotho whose most recent elections also resulted in decisive change.

Until news began to break early last Thursday morning, Botswana’s general election had largely passed under the radar. With the exception of the Batswana themselves, regional correspondents, diplomats and election nerds, it is doubtful many knew that a general election was taking place in the country to our north.

In this historic “year of elections” and with the US elections then fast approaching, any news of the Botswanan people going to the polls was largely drowned out. 

Yet by last Friday morning, South Africa and the world knew an election had taken place in Botswana. A seismic, change election. From the New York Times to the BBC to Al Jazeera, Botswana trended. After 58 years of uninterrupted governance since the country became independent, the ruling party, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) lost its majority, suffering a crushing defeat. 

Botswana has a first-past-the-post electoral system. The country is divided into 61 constituencies. To win a majority in parliament and win the presidency, 31 constituencies is the magic mark for a majority.

The (then) leading opposition party, the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) won 36 constituencies and 37% of the popular vote.  The next biggest opposition party, the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) won 15 constituencies (21% of the popular vote) and will take up the mantle of the official opposition.

The BDP? It came fourth, winning four seats and 30% of the popular vote. The Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), supported by former BDP President Ian Khama took third place with five seats (8% of the popular vote). An independent candidate won the remaining one seat.

Decimated


In the last election in 2019, the BDP won 38 seats and 52% of the popular vote. Last Wednesday, it lost 34 seats and 22% of the popular vote. Outgoing President Mokgweetsi Masisi’s party has been decimated. Today, Friday 7 November, UDC leader Duma Boko will be inaugurated as the country’s first non-BDP president.

With this groundbreaking result that shocked many, Botswana has become the trailblazer of peaceful, democratic change in the SADC region, picking up the mantle from Zambia and Lesotho whose most recent elections also resulted in decisive change.

South Africa’s election this year was significant and potentially signals a new political era for the country. But it was not a change election. It resulted in the same president continuing, and broadly speaking, policy status quo. Turnout was 58%, down eight points from 2019. A majority of eligible South African voters stayed at home.

The then official opposition grew marginally by one point. If it wasn’t for Jacob Zuma and MK, there would not be a Government of National Unity (GNU). A political alternative truly capable of beating the African National Congress (ANC) and inspiring voters to turn out in numbers has yet to emerge. Despite the decline of the ANC, decisive change did not occur.

Across the northwest border, change is certainly on the horizon. An opposition built the momentum needed to win an election with an outright majority. It now has the responsibility to deliver the change it promised.

The issues facing Botswana are largely economic, with sluggish growth, driven by a downturn in the global diamond trade, contributing to high levels of unemployment, particularly among the youth.

High turnout


Many young Batswana turned up at polling stations on election day in their university graduation gowns, symbolising the frustration of being educated but lacking opportunity. Corruption and poor service delivery compounded the overarching disillusionment with the BDP government.

Turnout in last Wednesday’s election was 81%, down by two points since the previous general election in 2019, but well above regional averages. By our (South African) recent standards, that is huge.

The UDC and its fellow opposition parties channelled dissatisfaction with the government into action and turning citizens out to register and vote for change. Furthermore, they learnt from the lack of a coordinated election protection effort in 2019, ensuring enough party agents and escorts for ballot boxes to the counting centres.

Although this result may have appeared to have come overnight and out of the blue, this was 12 years in the making. The UDC was founded in December 2012 by the Botswana National Front (BNF), Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) and the Botswana People’s Party (BPP) with the aim of consolidating the opposition to provide a united force against the BDP then led by Ian Khama.

The UDC has endured many trials and tribulations since its formation,  with parties coming and going and numerous setbacks. The new official opposition, the BCP, joined the UDC for the 2019 elections but left in 2022.

While Election 2014 was largely positive for the opposition formation, 2019 was a disaster with both Duma Boko and Ndaba Gaolathe (the new vice president) losing their parliamentary seats in Gaborone. 

The opposition formation stayed the course, and despite parties such as the BPF not being part of the UDC, pacts were entered into to ensure that the opposition parties maximised their votes where they had the best chance of defeating the BDP.

In many constituencies, the BCP did challenge the UDC, and the risk of a split vote existed. However, the surge for change often pushed the BDP to third place.

The story of the UDC is one that must be told in detail. It has not been perfect. There have been fights and squabbles, but it has delivered on its mission. And the population awaits impatiently to see whether it can realise its vision of change for the country. 

Working together


What are the key lessons opposition parties in the region can learn? First, they should work together – whether that be in Zimbabwe, Namibia or Uganda. If liberation movements or authoritarians are to be defeated, the opposition has to consolidate.

In South Africa, the Multi-Party Charter (MPC) was a good idea in theory. But for it to have worked in practice, it needed parties to divide up the electoral map and put all their effort into contesting the ANC. Easier said than done in a proportional representation electoral system, but not impossible. 

A second lesson – shown by both Zambia and Lesotho – is that you have to win big. Big margins of victory make it harder to rig or resist transition. And this was once again evident in Botswana when the margin of victory definitely aided a quick, peaceful and admirable transition. The two main opposition parties were ready to prove and protect their electoral gains, but the margin of victory and momentum of change made a usually fraught task so much more manageable.

A final key lesson is that elections are won between campaigns. This helps you to “win big”. Too many parties in too many countries in SADC think that you can defeat entrenched incumbents by getting ready a year or even six months out from an election date. That thinking will cement consistent defeat.

The job of building a campaign organisation, registering voters, persuading the electorate and preparing for winning and protecting the vote has to be permanent and will sometimes take more than a decade. 

Many have long looked for a guide on how to beat liberation movements. We now have a playbook. We can all do ourselves a great service by asking for it and reading it. DM

Categories:

Tags: