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Budget 2025 – could the ANC and the EFF really work together?

Budget 2025 – could the ANC and the EFF really work together?
Stephen Grootes
By Stephen Grootes
31 Mar 2025
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With the ANC and the DA still reportedly locked in talks, the ANC’s NEC ending today, and a parliamentary vote due on the Budget this week, it appears the ANC does not have enough votes to pass the Budget. This opens the door for the EFF to grab the political initiative. But if the ANC were to work with the EFF to pass the Budget, there would be serious consequences for both parties.

On paper, the current impasse over the Budget could be a golden opportunity for EFF leader Julius Malema.

Since the results of last year’s elections, he has appeared to lose the initiative and has lost several senior leaders. 

This might be a moment in which he could demonstrate that he still has political power. At the same time, it could provide an opportunity to resolve what may be his biggest long-term problem.

As Malema has appeared to become less important to politics, and his management of the EFF has damaged the party dramatically, so he needs another option.

While the question of whether Malema could return to the ANC has hovered over our politics for many years, his joining the national coalition might provide certain opportunities.

It would mean that he would be back with the ANC, and that the ANC could accept him back (sort of) without any formal process.

A position in government would also provide him with a new stage on which to make noise and practise the politics of spectacle.

It would also mean the ANC would resolve its most serious problem since the formation of the coalition. It would be able to pass the Budget.

Read more: ANC struggles to win support for Godongwana’s Budget as it turns to opposition parties

But more than that, it would allow the ANC to send a message to other coalition partners that it would refuse to be held hostage or pushed around. It would show the party is serious about being the bigger party in the coalition, and that it must be supported if parties want to stay in government.

At the same time, as the SACP is preparing to contest elections independently (although it has said this before), this could be a way to send a message that the ANC is not moving to the right.

All this could mean that it would be an attractive proposition for the EFF to join the ANC this week.

At what cost?


There are important drawbacks to such a decision, which will probably ensure this does not happen.

First, it would be foolish for the ANC to give Malema such an opportunity. Since he was expelled from the ANC in 2012, he has been its most consistent opponent. Unlike other competitors, such as the DA, he has actually taken votes from the party, which makes him more dangerous than other rivals.

To allow him to save himself now, when he appears to be losing support, could be short-sighted. 

Perhaps more important than that would be the immediate consequences.

The main reason the JSE had such a strong rally last year was because the ANC agreed to form a national coalition with the DA, rather than the EFF (or MK).

For years, our currency and many shares were undervalued, mainly because of the fear that the ANC would turn populist and no longer protect property rights.

The fact that our economy is now growing slightly and is expected to begin growing more strongly is a direct consequence of the economic restructuring which is under way through this coalition.

This confidence would vanish in minutes if the ANC were to rely on the EFF for support to pass the Budget.

The main reason for this would be because it would be presumed (accurately) that the EFF had extracted major changes in government policy in return for its support. In short, it would be seen as a major change in direction for the ANC.

This is particularly because the EFF’s first demand when conducting negotiations with the ANC after the elections was that President Cyril Ramaphosa no longer be President.

While it was clear the ANC was never going to accept that last year, it would lead to speculation that Ramaphosa no longer held the power he had just a year ago. 

It could also be seen as an indication (perhaps incorrectly) that Deputy President Paul Mashatile was now gaining ground in the party, ahead of its 2027 leadership election.

In short, it would suggest the ANC was changing direction, and that change would be enough to remove the confidence investors have recently shown in the government.

EFF in, DA out


Of course, it would also present a much bigger medium-term problem. Which is that while the EFF may have enough seats to help pass the Budget now, the DA would surely leave the coalition.

The entire basis of the DA’s decision to join the coalition was to “keep the EFF out of government”. It would have to leave the government immediately if the EFF joined in any way.

Other parties would go too, including the FF+.

Read more: GNU tension erupts after Steenhuisen seeks urgent dialogue over Ramaphosa’s signing of Expropriation Bill

The real strength of the current coalition is that just two parties together, the ANC and the DA, have around 60% of the vote. This means that disputes are relatively easy to resolve (or should be).

The EFF on its own may not provide much of a cushion for the coalition should other disputes arise. This would immediately lead to speculation that to maintain a comfortable grip on power, the ANC would also have to work with MK.

And while some in the party might prefer that option, any association with former president Jacob Zuma would be enough to ensure the ANC’s share of the vote plummets even more dramatically in the next election.

It would also lead to more ANC infighting because there would have to be a major Cabinet reshuffle.

While the DA may have been given certain ministries in the name of “nation-building”, competition between current ANC ministers and EFF members for posts would be much tougher.

There has been, so far at least, no serious intra-Cabinet rivalry between ministers from different parties, which would change. This is because the ANC and the DA, the two biggest parties, are chasing votes from different constituencies.

This is not the case with the ANC and the EFF. It is likely that including EFF members in Cabinet would lead to real political rivalry between people with the same constituencies, chasing the same votes.

This, in turn, would lead to much more infighting 

Trust on the line


There would be other implications too.

One of the most important and yet underexamined dynamics of the past five years has been how the private sector’s role in our economy has grown so dramatically.

A major reason for this is that only the private sector can resolve some of our problems. So far, this has been managed through Operation Vulindlela, which has seen the government and the private sector working together.

Key to this is trust. Without it, CEOs are unlikely to invest time and money into resolving problems the government should normally fix. This entire process would probably end if the ANC were to change direction.

CEOs might feel they can no longer trust the government, and particularly Malema. This means this entire process could come to a halt, thus preventing solutions from being properly implemented.

Our politics is becoming more fluid and predictions are getting tougher to make. As political leaders realise they have very few good long-term options, they are forced into short-termism. This raises the risk of the ANC doing deals with parties that could lead to it damaging itself in the longer run.

It is likely that this will happen soon. The main question for the moment is in the timing.

If the ANC does work with the EFF, it would show that it now has only bad short-term options left. DM

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