Ward 24 (Legokgwe Cunningmoor) Bushbuckridge, Ehlanzeni: ANC 74% (62%) EFF 26% (34%)
The setting: Ward 24 is close to the Kruger National Park. It is northwest of Skukuza and west of Sabi Sands and Mala Mala. It is in the southern part of the municipality. Bushbuckridge is the second-most-populous municipality in Mpumalanga and the 14th-most-populous in the country. Bushbuckridge forms part of Ehlanzeni. It is the most vote-rich part of Mpumalanga. Ehlanzeni includes Mbombela, the provincial capital.
The 2021 local government elections: The ANC performed slightly below its Bushbuckridge par of 66%, while the EFF performed well above its 10%. The EFF won one of the six voting districts, scooping 62% of the vote in Cunningmoor (also known as Tiyemeleni), with the ANC obtaining 36%. The ANC swept the other five districts, all located in Legokgwe (also known as Oakley). It won 68% in the Oakley School district, while the EFF managed 29%. The ANC did best in the third-most-populous voting district, getting 81% in the Church of the Nazarene district. Here the EFF could only get 17%.
The ANC easily held Bushbuckridge in the local government elections, amassing 53 of the 76 available seats. The party did, however, lose four seats. The Bushbuckridge Residents Association (BRA), the former official opposition in Bushbuckridge, was obliterated as it lost eight of its 10 seats. The main beneficiaries of the BRA’s collapse and the ANC’s slight decline were the EFF and the Independent South African National Civic Organisation (Isanco). The EFF became the official opposition as it grew from three to eight seats. Isanco won five seats to finish in fourth place.
The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC won 73% of the vote in this ward. This was an improvement from the local government elections but down from its 2024 return of 84%. The EFF almost doubled its support in the ward, from 10% to 19%. The uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party was third with 4%.
As in the 2021 local government elections, the ANC tends to underperform in Ward 24 relative to the rest of the municipality, as it won 76% across Bushbuckridge, slightly below 79% in 2019. The EFF overperformed in Ward 24 relative to the rest of Bushbuckridge as it won 13%, up from 9% in 2019. MK came fourth with 3%, just behind the DA, also on 3%. This was the municipality where MK performed the worst in Mpumalanga in 2024.
Read more: Daily Maverick by-elections hub
The ANC fell sharply from 71% to 51% in the province in 2024. MK came second with 17%, with the EFF third on 14%, slightly up from 13% in 2019. The DA was fourth with 10%, up from 8% in 2019.
The by-election: The ward councillor died. Only the ANC and the EFF were on the ballot. The ANC retained Ward 24 with ease, beating the EFF by 1,799 votes in a relatively high-turnout by-election.
While the EFF was again first in the Cunningmoor voting district, the ANC asserted itself in Legokgwe. The ANC won 96% of the vote in its Church of the Nazarene stronghold, up from 81% in 2021. The EFF declined from 17% to 4%. At Oakley Primary School the ANC grew from 68% to 85% while the EFF shrank from 29% to 15%. The ANC won more than 85% in two other Legokgwe voting districts.
The EFF will be satisfied with the Cunningmoor return where its 61% showing was similar to the 62% return in 2021. The ANC made slight gains, moving from 36% to 39%.
Poll: 49% (40%)
The next round of by-elections will be on 22 January when the ANC will defend two super-safe seats in the Eastern Cape. DM