Dominant day for ANC as it sweeps 3 Eastern Cape polls, grabs a ward off DA in Northern Cape

10 Oct 2024

The ANC retained all three of the wards it was defending in the Eastern Cape, including two in the Buffalo City Metro. The party also took a ward off the DA in the town of Groblershoop in the !Kheis municipality of the Northern Cape to give it outright control of the municipality.

Ward 12 (Mdantsane Unit 1) Buffalo City: ANC 57% (81%) EFF 35% (12%) MK 5% PAC 1% (<1%) UDM 1% (<1%) Al Jama-ah <1% (<1%) TRUTH <1%

The setting: Mdantsane Unit 1 is on the eastern side of Mdantsane, the most populous township in the East London area and falls west of the city centre. It sits below the N2 national road which links East London with Qonce (formerly King William’s Town). Mdantsane has a serious claim to being known as the cradle of boxing in South Africa.

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won more than 80% of the vote here in a landslide win. The only other party to feature was the EFF, which got into double percentage figures. It performed better in the two sparsely populated voting districts.

Buffalo City is the metropolitan area where the ANC did best in 2021, winning 59%, well ahead of the next-best metropolitan area of Mangaung where it garnered 51%.

The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC won 64% of the vote here, down from 76% in 2019, and was hurt by the EFF and MK. The EFF grew from 17% to 22% while MK came third with 3%. The United Democratic Movement (UDM) also got 3% support, up from 1% in 2019.

The by-election: The ward councillor died after a short illness. The ANC and EFF were joined by four other parties on the ballot, including MK. A group of ANC members threatened to vote for the EFF in this ward because they were unhappy with the candidate selection process.

The ANC held the ward but saw its impressive majority eaten into by the EFF. While the ANC swept all five voting districts, the EFF made advances everywhere. The EFF won 45% of the vote at the relatively populous Church of God and Saints of Christ voting district. This was well up from the 15% it obtained in 2021. The ANC fell from 79% to 50% in this district. The most vote-rich district in the ward is Nontsikelelo Primary School. The ANC vote share fell from 86% to 66%, with the EFF jumping from 7% to an impressive 31%. It is clear that local discontent among some ANC activists spurred on the EFF.

MK was able to finish third, well behind the EFF but still ahead of more established Eastern Cape parties including the UDM and the Pan Africanist Congress of Azania (PAC).

Poll: 39% (40%)

Ward 20 (Mdantsane Unit 6, Unit 7) Buffalo City: ANC 62% (67% PR) EFF 33% (20% PR) PAC 3% (3% PR) MK 2% Al Jama-ah <1% TRUTH <1% ACDP <1% (<1%)

The setting: This part of Mdantsane is in the centre on the southern side, below the N2 national road and Spine Road. Most of the voters are in Unit 6. It is further from East London than Ward 12.

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won by a healthy margin on the proportional representation (PR) ballot, but did not do as well as it did in Ward 12. The EFF raked in more than 20% on the PR ballot, while the PAC finished a distant third on 3%.

The PR ballot is used as the mode of comparison here because there were four independent candidates on the ballot in Ward 20. None of those candidates is on the ballot this time. They hurt both the ANC and the EFF on the ward ballot, with the ANC getting 56% and the EFF 14%. The four independents won more than a quarter of the vote collectively.

The 2024 provincial election: The ANC won 67% of the vote, finishing way out in front. However, the EFF made inroads in the ward, jumping from 14% in 2019 to 23% in 2024. The ANC fell from 78% in 2019 to 67% in 2024. MK finished sixth with 1%, behind the United Democratic Movement (UDM), DA and Pan Africanist Congress of Azania (PAC).

The by-election: The ward councillor collapsed and died. A group of ANC members threatened to vote for the EFF because they were unhappy with the candidate selection process. There were six parties on the ballot.

The ANC’s performance was more resolute in Ward 20 than in Ward 12. The party lost five percentage points but was not pushed as hard by the EFF here. The EFF was, however, able to win a district off the ANC.

The EFF won the Zanokukhanya Primary School district in Unit 7, climbing from 27% to 52%, while the ANC shed support from 57% to 43%. At Gcobani Primary School, the ANC’s vote share increased from 69% to 88%, while the EFF halved from 18% to 9%. The district results in Ward 20 were less consistent than in Ward 12. The five other parties contesting in Ward 20 hardly made a dent on the results board, with three failing to register even 1% support.

Poll: 40% (45%)

Chris Hani

Ward 15 (Isikhoba Wodehouse) Intsika Yethu: ANC 88% (85% PR) ACT 7% MK 5% TRUTH <1%

The setting: The sparsely populated rural Ward 15 is close to Cofimvaba, straddling the R61 regional road linking Cofimvaba with Qamata and St Marks. Intsika Yethu is an ANC fortress. Its principal towns are Tsomo and Cofimvaba. Albertina Sisulu and trade unionist Vuyisile Mini hail from this area. It forms part of the Chris Hani District which includes the towns of Komani, Xuba (formerly Cradock) and eNgcobo.

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC routed the opposition on the PR ballot, winning 85% of the vote. The only other party to have a decent showing was the EFF with 7%. On the ward ballot, the ANC won 79%, with an independent candidate coming second with 10%. The independent was absent from the by-election ballot, hence the use of the PR ballot as the mode of comparison.

The ANC won 35 of the 42 seats and lost none. The EFF grew from three to four seats while the UDM fell from two to one. The DA and PAC won a single seat each.

The 2024 provincial election: The ANC won 82% of the vote in May, down a single percentage point. The EFF came second with 7%, up a single percentage point. MK finished way off the pace with 1% while Ace Magashule’s African Congress for Transformation (ACT) did not come close to even half a percent.

The by-election: Ward councillor Mpumzi Mfamana was shot dead in the middle of July. No one has been arrested. The ANC were joined by four other parties on the ballot.

The ANC routed its opponents in this by-election, winning more than 90% of the vote in four of the six voting districts. Its weakest return was 83% at Isikhoba School.

Ace Magashule’s African Congress for Transformation (ACT) finished second. It was able to get into double figures in two of the six voting districts in the ward and ended up beating MK by 33 votes.

The EFF did not contest this by-election. The ANC will feel that it is very much business as usual in Intsika Yethu and that all is on track here for the 2026 elections.

Poll: 46% (50%)

Northern Cape

Ward 6 (Groblershoop) !Kheis, ZF Mgcawu: ANC 58% (34% PR) DA 29% (57% PR) PA 13% TRUTH <1% MK <1%

The setting: This is a rural municipality centred on the town of Groblershoop next to the mighty Orange River. The region is known for its wine production and grape farming. It is the gateway to the Green Kalahari. Most of the residents of this municipality live next to the N10 national road which links Upington with Marydale. The most well-known landmark in the municipality is the Boegoeberg Dam.

Most of the voters in Ward 6 are in Groblershoop.

The 2021 local government elections: The DA beat the ANC by 183 votes on the PR ballot. The DA won the most-populous voting district in Groblershoop. Despite the ANC carrying the Opwag voting district, north of Groblershoop, between the Orange River and the N10, the DA built enough of a buffer to hold on for an important win. The PA was not on the ballot in 2021.

The ANC won five out of the 11 seats in the municipality. The DA won two and was able to cobble together an unstable coalition with two independents, the Congress of the People (COPE) and the EFF, which resulted in a DA mayor being elected on the 11-seat council.

The 2024 provincial election: The DA won 46% of the vote with the ANC finishing second on 39%. It was a very close contest. The PA hurt the DA as it finished third on 7%. MK won less than a quarter of a percent.

The Northern Cape is also where the DA performed most poorly compared with the 2019 results, falling from 26% to 21%. The PA had an impressive showing in the Northern Cape with a 9% haul to finish fourth. The bulk of the lost DA support went to the PA.

The by-election: Ward councillor Jurgens Jooste resigned from the council and defected to the PA. The DA claimed he resigned as he was about to be removed as a councillor for not settling his candidate dues. What gives this by-election a familial twist is that Jooste is the brother-in-law of the DA constituency member of the provincial legislature for the area, Karen Jooste.

The ANC easily won Ward 6 off the DA, beating them by 306 votes. What was critical for the ANC was its ability to enthuse and get its voters to turn out. There was a significant turnout differential in the by-election. Turnout ranged between 51% and 52% in the two voting districts carried by the DA, while it was a staggering 85% and 91% in the two voting districts carried by the ANC.

An additional voting district in the ward makes it hard to do a like-for-like voting district comparison, but in Opwag the ANC percentage vote share went from 60% to 71% and the DA’s shrank from 38% to 11%. The PA beat the DA with 18% support.

Read our September by-election analyses:

DA sails forth in North West ward polls, despite prod by EFF in Potch

DA retains electoral mining rights in Odendaalsrus, adds to huge Free State haul with easy Mangaung wins

Al-Jamah wins big in Lenasia while ANC and DA also retain seats in Gauteng and Limpopo

MK party wins KZN ward but falls short in other contests, dominant DA paints polls blue

The PA almost doubled its support from the May provincial ballot where it got 7%. However, it must be remembered that it fielded the incumbent ward councillor as its candidate.

The ANC will now take over !Kheis. The by-election win gives it six of the 11 seats. This means it will soon elect a mayor and a speaker from its ranks. The DA will lose the mayoral chain and an independent councillor will lose the speaker’s chair.

October 9 2024 was a big day for the ANC. It is not only back in control of Tshwane with a coalition, but in !Kheis too. !Kheis might be significantly smaller than Tshwane on a national scale, but at least in !Kheis the party will not be beholden to coalition partners.

Poll: 72% (76%)

The next round of by-elections will be on 23 October when the DA defends five wards – two in the Western Cape, one in Tshwane and two in Mpumalanga. The PA will defend a marginal ward in George in the Western Cape. DM

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