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IFP stuns ANC, MK in KZN ward, while ANC continues good Eastern Cape run with decisive win

IFP stuns ANC, MK in KZN ward, while ANC continues good Eastern Cape run with decisive win
Wayne Sussman
By Wayne Sussman
13 Feb 2025
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The IFP upset the ANC and the uMkhonto Wesizwe party in the first KwaZulu-Natal by-election of 2025, while the ANC steamrolled the opposition in Matatiele in the Eastern Cape.

Ward 15 (Ndlondlweni Mlamula) uMhlabuyalingana, uMkhanyakude: IFP 48% (29%) ANC 30% (56%)MK 19%  NFP 1% (<1%) AEF 1% ABMM (<1%) (<1%)


The setting: uMhlabuyalingana is a rural municipality in the far northeast of KwaZulu-Natal, in the section next to eSwatini and Mozambique. The area is laden with national gems such as Lake Sibaya, the Ndumo Game Reserve, iSimangaliso Wetland Park and Kosi Bay. Its seat of power is KwaNgwanase. 

Ward 15 is southwest of Manguzi, the main hub of KwaNgwanase. Most of the voters are along the R22 regional road which links iNsileni with Phelandaba. Most of the voters in the ward are in Ndlondlweni, which is west of the Sileza Nature Reserve. The village of Thokazi, which is more rural and away from the R22 road, also has a bunch of voters. 

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC beat the IFP by 551 votes on the ward ballot, winning four of the five voting districts. The victory was built on winning large majorities in the two most populous voting districts in the ward, Ndlondlweni and Mlamula. The IFP won the third-most-populous district, in Thokazi, followed by an independent candidate with 5%. 

It was far more competitive on the proportional representation (PR) ballot, with the ANC only beating the IFP by 154 votes. The reason was the Mlamula voting district where the ANC won 69% of the ward vote but only 34% on the PR ballot. The IFP could only muster 13% in Mlamula on the ward ballot but won the district on the PR ballot with 47%. 

The ANC won 18 seats in uMhlabuyalingana. The IFP was second with 15 and the EFF a distant third with two. A district party, the Abahlali Base Mkhanyakude Movement, the National Freedom Party (NFP), the DA and African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) won a single seat each in the 39-seat council.

The IFP was able to cobble together enough support to get an IFP mayor and speaker elected. 

The 2024 provincial election: MK won 54% of the vote in the ward, sweeping all the voting districts. The IFP came second with 25%, down from 36% in 2019, and the ANC plummeted to a distant third with 14% after amassing 55% in 2019.

MK was also the most popular party in the municipality, winning 51%. The IFP came second with 24%, growing by 3% points from 2019. The ANC’s support fell from 66% to 20%. The EFF too was hurt by MK, shrinking from 5% to 2%. 

The by-election: The ward councillor died. The ANC was joined by MK and the IFP on the ballot, with the NFP and two regional parties, the African Economic Freedom (AEF), an EFF breakaway party and the Abahlali Base Mkhanyakude Movement. 

In 2023, the IFP won a by-election in the municipality, taking a ward off the ANC to take it to 16 seats, as the ANC fell to 17. The IFP was hoping to become the largest party in the municipality. 

The IFP beat the ANC by 490 votes to pick up the ward from the ANC. MK hardly featured in the by-election and finished a distant and disappointing third place for them, 792 votes behind the IFP. 

The IFP won the ward by winning the second- and third-most vote-rich districts by large majorities. In Mlamula, at the Jikijela School, it beat the ANC by 290 votes. Turnout here was 63%, higher than the poll average of 60%. At the Mshanguzana High School district in Thokazi the IFP beat the ANC by 279 votes. Here also, turnout was just above the poll average. 

The ANC won two of the five voting districts, including Ndlondleweni, the most vote-rich district in the ward. The ANC beat the IFP by 121 votes here, but turnout was only 55%. More voters turned out in Mlamula than in Ndlondleweni. 

MK won more than 20% of the vote in three of the five voting districts, including 28% in Mlamula. This was a far cry off from May 2024 where it swept all the districts. 

The IFP now has 17 seats and the ANC falls to second place with 16 in the 39-seat chamber. This means the IFP has a slightly firmer grasp on the mayoral chain in a highly contested municipality. 

Poll: 60% (54%)

Ward 10 (Dumasini KwaLunda) Matatiele, Alfred Nzo: ANC 76% (73%* PR%) EFF 8% (8% PR) MK 8% AIC 7% (9% PR) TRUTH <1%


The setting: Matatiele municipality borders Lesotho and KwaZulu-Natal, in the foothills of the Drakensberg. It has many border crossings into Lesotho via challenging mountain passes. It is the home municipality of Judge Chris Jafta and former Bafana Bafana player Andile Jali. 

Ward 10 is east of Matatiele town and includes numerous villages near the R56 regional road which links Matatiele with Nqanqarhu (formerly Maclear). Most of the voters reside in Dumasini and KwaLunda. 

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won by a landslide on the PR ballot, hoovering up close to three-quarters of the vote. No other party made it into double figures. The Matatiele-based African Independent Congress (AIC) pipped the EFF for second place on the PR ballot. 

The ANC faced a slightly tougher challenge on the ward ballot, with an independent candidate coming second with 17%. This candidate hurt the ANC, the EFF and the AIC.

Read more: By-elections hub

The ANC dominated the seat allocation, taking 40 of the 54. It won two extra seats, but it must be noted that the municipality grew from 51 to 54 seats. The EFF came second with seven, well up from three in 2016. The DA declined from five to three and the AIC halved from four to two. Two other parties won a single seat. 

The 2024 provincial election: The ANC won 73% of the vote, up from 70% in 2019. The EFF was second, matching its 10% haul from 2019. The DA came third with 5%, up from 3%, while the AIC dropped from 12% to 4% to finish fourth, followed by MK on 4%. 

The ANC was by far the most popular party in Matatiele municipality, taking 72% of the vote, although it did fall by 5%. The EFF was second again but dipped from 11% to 10%. The DA edged MK for third spot with 6%, up by one percentage point. MK followed with a credible 6%. It is clear that MK hurt the ANC in this part of the Eastern Cape.

The by-election: The ward councillor died in a car accident. The ANC cantered to victory in this by-election. It beat runner-up, the EFF, by 1,406 votes and swept all seven districts. Its weakest return was a still impressive 66% at Ntabazijongene Primary School. The MK did most of the damage here, getting 24%. The ANC won more than 80% of the vote in four of the seven districts. 

The EFF pipped MK for second place by nine votes. It won more than 10% in two of the seven districts. The hometown party, the AIC, finished 15 votes behind MK. The AIC was once a thorn in the side of the ANC in Matatiele, but it is losing ground gradually. This result will hurt its prospects in 2026.

The ANC’s good run in Eastern Cape by-elections continues. 

Poll: 48% (57%)

The next by-election will be on 12 March when the ANC will go head-to-head with MK in the traditional ANC stronghold of Richmond in uMgungundlovu in the KwaZulu-Natal Midlands. DM

* The PR ballot is used as the mode of comparison as it is a better indicator here of past performance.

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