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Cabinet reshuffle leaves SA just one presidential scandal away from a chaotic Mashatile-EFF collaboration

Songezo Zibi
By Songezo Zibi
7 Mar 2023
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On Monday night, President Cyril Ramaphosa finally announced his much-anticipated reshuffle of his Cabinet. It may go down in history as the last exclusively ANC-chosen Cabinet before the country descends into the possible chaos and anarchy of a national coalition government, depending on its composition.

Notwithstanding, in his statement Ramaphosa optimistically said that he had begun the task of overhauling the Cabinet structure ahead of another presumed ANC government after the 2024 elections. The changes he announced demonstrated how much depth and skill the party has lost over the years, to the point that it can no longer produce anyone to restore optimism during the country’s deepest crisis since democracy.

For perspective, consider that the ANC faces its most difficult elections next year, with all publicly available polling showing that it will dip below 50% for the first time. Under normal circumstances you would expect a party in such a precarious position to bring out its best and brightest to take it through the final stretch so it can win back the confidence of South Africans. I have no doubt that this was the intention, but it simply has nothing and no one to call up.

Instead, the ANC leadership moved around some decidedly questionable characters such as Zizi Kodwa and David Mahlobo, who in a normal society should have been consulting their criminal defence lawyers for past indiscretions. Instead, they remain in Cabinet while failed premier Sihle Zikalala gets elevated to a minister. It’s dire all round.

Second, in terms of ANC tradition, the national office bearer the President consults most closely when such decisions must be taken is the party’s secretary-general. In this case, it is former minister of transport Fikile Mbalula. To avoid being personal, I will simply ask you to consider that at some point Kgalema Motlanthe held that same position – and the two are not in the same league, to put it mildly. This is the person whose counsel Ramaphosa would have sought, and the results speak for themselves.

Third, we see a deepening of the tendency to create a ministry for every problem the ANC government cannot solve. We now have a minister of electricity who, apparently, will put an end to load shedding, somehow. The eternally optimistic must be happy that the core problem has been found, and absence of a ministry to oversee a crisis the ANC government cannot solve, such as crime, or the violent killing of women and children, or unemployment and poverty. The list is long.

Read in Daily Maverick: “Here they are — the long-awaited changes to President Ramaphosa’s Cabinet”

But there is something more profound about the excitement generated by an event like this, and that is how the elites and pundits continue to be duped by the ANC’s tendency to individualise failure so that it cannot be corporately held accountable. All the ministers still report to the same tainted, uninspiring and dithering president. I am not certain how his own character is supposed to change just because he has moved a few chairs around and got rid of the people who irritated him the most, such as Lindiwe Sisulu.

A tipping point


The country is at a critical tipping point. Paul Mashatile is now one scandal and political mistake (by Ramaphosa) away from ascending to the Presidency. If that comes to pass, two things will happen.

The ANC will, according to numerous polls, dip far below 40% as Ramaphosa remains its electoral trump card given the parlous state of the opposition’s leading personalities. Then, Ramaphosa’s fall, and the ANC’s precipitous decline will cause it to need the EFF whose leadership remains closely connected with the Gauteng leadership of the ANC, of which Mashatile is the undisputed captain.

Several weeks ago, Al Jama-ah’s leader let it slip on eNCA that the party, the Patriotic Alliance, the EFF and the ANC have been quietly working together to regain control of Gauteng metros now, and the province after next year’s elections. Gauteng premier Panyaza Lesufi has previously lamented that the ANC let Julius Malema go through expulsion.

This is a possibility that worries many, including the national elite class that has so far accepted the ANC’s leadership even as it declined. Not only are they deeply frustrated with Ramaphosa, but they are also even more worried that a national coalition government may be as chaotic as the circus enveloping the Gauteng metros currently.

Moving past and beyond the ANC


That there will be a coalition government next year is now a near-certainty. What we do not know for certain is its composition. If the ANC dips below 40%, there will be a significant dislocation of the national consensus that has, despite the ANC’s decline, held for the past 25 years.

ANC ministers who previously could be relied upon to provide leadership to various sectors of society are now out of Cabinet and generally outside public life. This is a task none of the opposition parties has shown any inclination to take up, also believing that stakeholders will simply gravitate towards them if they happen to form a new government next year.

It will not be so simple. Governing is not just about statutory power but also voluntary subscription to the legitimacy of the political leadership. The constant collapse and infantile behaviour that has become so common in metro leadership squabbles is the sort of thing that will almost certainly ensure that there are no grown-ups in the room to guide the country at a time of very deep crisis.



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Much more than whether the individual ministers can carry their respective portfolios, this Cabinet reshuffle demonstrated that there may no longer be a centre that holds the country together. Yet, retaining a strong centre to act as a glue that binds sometimes intensely opposing interests is critical if the country is to successfully navigate its most difficult period since 1994.

While many continue to justifiably criticise Ramaphosa for dithering, it is the elites who control powerful stakeholder blocks who may later lament not recognising this moment for what it is, the point at which it became clear that the country is on its own. Things are falling apart, and the centre cannot hold.

Mashatile Ramaphosa Newly appointed deputy president Paul Mashatile and President Cyril Ramaphosa at the ANC's 55th national conference in Johannesburg on 19 December 2022. (Photo: Leila Dougan)



These worrying scenarios notwithstanding, I remain convinced it is now possible more than ever before to achieve a national consensus that sees the ANC as a mere part of it, rather than its centre. That is because an increasing number of stakeholders now realise that if they do not move at the same pace or faster than the rest of the country is moving past the ANC, they may find themselves shut out while the future of the country is being decided after the 2024 elections.

Contrary to popular belief, it is the rest of us, not the ANC, who have to make the choice to chart a pathway to an eventually prosperous future that is no longer dependent on the ANC’s leadership. That is because for the better part of a decade, the ANC within and outside government has not provided that leadership in any event.

In the coming weeks and months, Rise Mzansi will set out in some detail the path we should follow to avoid a chaotic transition, retain a stable broad consensus and still drive a national programme that prevents chaos and brings much-needed reforms while accepting the reality of a coalition government.

That, not a haphazard and often-delayed reshuffle, is the conversation we should have. DM

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