Op-eds

South Africa needs to take advantage of the Cape Sea Route's resurgence in the wake of Red sea route instability

19 Nov 2024

The country needs more than infrastructure upgrades to capitalise on the increased shipping activity along the Cape Sea Route.

The global shipping industry prioritises the relatively shorter and cost-effective route through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. However, since the Galaxy Leader hijacking a year ago today, risks from Houthi attacks off Yemen’s coast have seen the Cape Sea Route regain prominence as a major shipping transit corridor.

But despite the opportunities this presents for South Africa, the country is struggling to convert short-term gains into advantages that align with its long-term interests and international maritime goals.

Major shipping companies including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and MSC do not expect stability to return to the Red Sea soon. In September and October 2024, they began announcing new routes around the Cape of Good Hope, starting in February 2025. These routes affect tourism, safety and salvage, search and rescue, customs and economic growth, even though many vessels will bypass South African ports.

Harbours such as Cape Town, Durban and Gqeberha have long served as critical nodes for global shipping, providing services such as vessel maintenance, crew changes and provisioning. They serve as gateways for neighbouring countries to access overseas markets and are a preferred route for vessels bypassing the Suez Canal, whether due to cost or other considerations.

South Africa is also fast becoming one of the most popular stops for international cruise tourism, especially as more ships bypass the Red Sea. This increases the number of cruise ships sailing around the country, and the type of services it needs to provide.

The surge in vessel traffic navigating close to South Africa’s coastline increases the likelihood of collisions, groundings and other accidents, with potentially severe human and environmental consequences.

Some cruise ships carry thousands of passengers, and in an emergency, a well-coordinated search-and-rescue capacity is vital. Environmental risks similarly require rapid salvage and spill response operations, considering that South Africa’s coastal waters include sensitive marine environments and marine protected areas vulnerable to pollution.

The country’s notoriously rough sea conditions are partly linked to the escalation in accidents reported by the South African Maritime Safety Authority (Samsa). These include groundings, sinkings and containers falling overboard. The problem is exacerbated by the surge in shipping on the Cape route as vessels avoid the Red Sea.

The overall escalation in container, cruise and cargo traffic comes at a time when South Africa aspires to improve its standing as a responsible maritime hub or International Maritime Centre. It has suffered some setbacks, notably its unsuccessful bid to be re-elected to the International Maritime Organisation Council, where it can shape shipping protocols.

Samsa is mandated to ensure security for navigation along the country’s coastline. This includes conducting a vital risk assessment – by 31 March 2025 – of aids to navigation to evaluate maritime traffic volumes and associated risks.

If preparations for this assessment haven’t been initiated, now would be an excellent time to accurately evaluate South Africa’s readiness to address current challenges. Steps to mitigate capacity deficits and strengthen the country’s maritime safety framework should also be prioritised.

One way to achieve this is by expanding the Oceans and Coastal Information Management System. This will enhance South Africa’s ability to monitor vessel movements and respond to accidents, as well as observe illegal activities in its waters, which are likely to rise as shipping traffic increases.

South Africa’s ports are expected to serve as vital nodes in facilitating regional and international commerce as trade grows within the African Continental Free Trade Area. This means they also have tremendous significance and potential for other countries’ economic functioning and fortunes.

However, South African ports are considered among the most inefficient globally, and suffer from congestion, outdated infrastructure and cyber vulnerabilities. Funding the significant upgrades needed to cut turnaround times, handle higher volumes and boost revenue and efficiency will be a challenge.

Attracting foreign and private investment through public-private partnerships is probably the best available way to modernise ports using technologies like automation and integrated logistics. However, legal disputes over concessions in Durban involving International Container Terminal Services and APM Terminals, highlight the challenges of securing such investments.

Ports in South Africa face increasing competition from emerging developments across southern Africa and along the east and west African coastlines. Mozambique’s port expansion and transport infrastructure upgrades, and the strengthening of key transport corridors like Nacala, Tazara and Lobito, are alternatives that may detract from South Africa’s market share.

To remain competitive, South African ports must demonstrate superior efficiency and cost advantages to ensure they remain relevant. A current challenge is inadequate and costly bunkering (refuelling) facilities. The problem is worsened by the South African Revenue Service shutting down offshore bunkering opportunities over fuel customs to be paid without expediting a solution.

While traditional bunker fuels are unsustainable for global decarbonisation goals, South Africa is already positioning itself as a competitive green fuel hub, anticipating investments aligned with shipping’s shift towards cleaner energy.

Several bills on marine pollution, port governance, search and rescue, and shipping standards are currently progressing through Parliament. Delays could cause fragmented responses if a major oil spill occurs before these bills are enacted, making it vital to expedite these processes by early 2025.

Efforts are also under way to coordinate ocean and coastal maritime agencies, recognising the need for a whole-of-government approach in developing a comprehensive national maritime security strategy. But these also haven’t made much progress since they were announced in 2019.

By addressing these gaps, South Africa can position itself as a responsible, influential maritime state, while enhancing its competitiveness as the gateway to sub-Saharan Africa and guardian of the Cape Route. DM

Timothy Walker, Senior Researcher, Maritime, Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Pretoria.

First published by ISS Today.

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