Coalition 2025 – The DA’s difficult dilemma

It is, of course, still true that the ANC is the biggest party in our politics; it is difficult to form a government without it. But it is also true that the DA now has some strategic options.

Several polls that appear to show it is gaining support from voters may well give its leaders a feeling that they are gaining momentum, that perhaps their decision to go into the coalition with the ANC was the right choice.

Of course, it’s very tough to know. No poll predicts an election, and every vote has different motivations.

But, like other parties faced with the choice of whether to go into a coalition, they have to look at short-term options and longer-term strategies.

In other words, if going into the coalition were to cost the party votes in upcoming local and then national elections, it might be unwise to work with the ANC.

It is not clear that that is the case. The DA might well believe that many of the people who voted for it wanted it to work with the ANC.

At the heart of this is a very curious thing that happened during last year’s elections.

While the DA campaigned against the ANC’s track record, its supporters knew, and generally accepted, that it would work with the ANC in a coalition.

In fact, it is likely that many DA voters hoped this would be the outcome, despite casting a ballot for the DA and not the ANC.

This is completely different to what many voters for ActionSA heard. Herman Mashaba told voters he would never work with the ANC, and what they understood was that he would, in fact, not work with the ANC.

This makes his apparent desperation to now join the coalition more complicated.

The reason that both parties claimed they would never work with the ANC, and yet their supporters heard different things, is that John Steenhuisen prepared the ground so well, three years in advance.

Read more: ‘ActionSA won’t entertain coalition discussions until tax increases scrapped’ — party chair Michael Beaumont

It was in 2021 that Steenhuisen said in an interview with the Sunday Times that he would work with an ANC led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, but not David Mabuza (who was deputy president at the time).

He was careful to reiterate this message from time to time, which meant no one could be surprised when the DA did work with the ANC.

The reason this matters now is that it is likely that many people voted for the DA last year in the expectation that the party would work with the ANC.

This poses a particular question for the DA, because if it were to now leave the coalition (especially over something as seemingly insignificant as a 0.5 percentage point VAT increase), they might feel the DA has not lived up to their expectations.

But, of course, it’s not nearly as simple as that.

Read more: VAT court challenge stays; Treasury may drop increase: Three future GNU scenarios for SA

Some voters, perhaps many, voted for the DA simply through their anger with the ANC.

The DA would be well aware of this. It is likely that this inspired its controversial advert featuring a burning South African flag that was then reassembled. It was a deliberate attempt to win votes from people who believed they were suffering under ANC governance.

There are also more medium-term problems.

The DA based its election campaign on the promise to keep the “doomsday coalition”, featuring the EFF (and later MK) out of power. While it is difficult to know exactly what would happen should the DA leave the coalition, the ANC might feel it has to work more closely with one of those parties.

This again might both disappoint DA voters, but also move the country in a direction that the DA opposes.

While parties and leaders may have more than one political objective, normally the main aim is to push a country in a particular direction. 

If the DA left the coalition it would make it more likely that South Africa would move in a direction opposite to its political aims.

But, there is also a case for leaving the coalition.

One of the major risks of working with the ANC is that the DA becomes associated with governance failure. It would be quite rational for voters to presume that if it is in government, it must take responsibility for what goes wrong.

At the same time, it is clear that a major frustration for the DA is that it believes it is not able to properly influence what the government does. 

This is the primary reason why it has made such an issue of the Budget.

Read more: DA says it is ‘willing to speak to ANC to get a workable Budget on the table’

To be fair to the DA, it is on strong ground here. Ramaphosa has not appointed Cabinet ministers in a manner proportional to their status in the coalition, and has appeared to go out of his way to antagonise them (through signing into law Bills he knew they opposed).

And how Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana believed he could implement the Budget without any consultation with the DA (or seemingly, anyone) suggests the DA is right to feel it is being taken for granted.

This is a real risk for the party. It would allow the impression to creep in that it is in government, but powerless.

Voters would then feel betrayed and look for other options, perhaps outside the coalition and to the right of the DA.

But, it is more complicated than even that.

Read more: Next steps: ANC’s plan to navigate budget impasse and restore coalition trust

In the world of cynical political strategy, some in the DA may believe that if they were to leave the coalition, those in the ANC who want to work with the EFF or MK would grow stronger – and that if the ANC were to go that route, Ramaphosa would become weakened, and possibly even removed.

Thus, the ANC would lose votes dramatically in the next election.

This would then mean that some might argue in favour of a calculated risk – leave the coalition, let Ramaphosa fall, watch the ANC lose votes and perhaps become the biggest party in Parliament.

But the risk of that is huge social discord, particularly if former President Jacob Zuma were somehow to re-enter government (this is a person who does not believe in democracy).

The DA might well be held responsible for allowing that to happen.

Read more: Budget bust-up forces ANC to rethink GNU rules, Zille says forget it

Then, there is a much longer-term problem.

As the two biggest diverse parties in our politics, the ANC and the DA might soon become intertwined in a fight for votes in the middle ground of our politics.

And, if the voices on the radical left and right grow stronger (think the SACP on one side, and MK and the EFF on the other), politics in the middle might too become more contested (it is also possible the ANC and the DA will be pushed into working together very closely indeed).

All of this shows that the DA has many different elements to consider in its choice.

On balance, it might feel that the risks of leaving the coalition outweigh the risks of staying in it. That alone might influence its leaders to decide to stay with the ANC.

At least for now. DM