Come the 2026 local government elections, the ANC slide is likely to continue

7 Aug 2024

While the ANC has again made big promises to ‘fix’ local government, it seems impossible to imagine that anything will truly improve in the two years leading up to the municipal elections – mostly because of the party’s inability to manage its members and leaders. As a result, the party may now be looking down the barrel of election results even worse than those of earlier this year.

It is surely agreed by almost everyone that one of the main reasons the quality of life has deteriorated for so many people in so many places is the failure of the local governments.

Whether it is hundreds and thousands of elderly people and mothers having to queue for water in township areas or the daily struggle to get to school and work through potholes, it is the failure of local government that is having the biggest impact on people’s lives.

Much of this is financial. Numbers made public this week suggest that councils owe Eskom alone nearly R100-billion. Water boards are owed over R20-billion.

All of this despite the fact that people in these councils have been mostly paying for services – the councils did receive money for these services, and have not used the money properly. A very polite way of saying it was either wasted or in some cases, simply stolen.

For the ANC, the real problem is that there is a stark contrast between the councils it runs, and the councils run by other parties, and particularly by the DA.

It has been a major plank of the DA’s campaign for years that the councils it controls are better governed.

While this can be contentious (it often depends on where you live, Khayelitsha is certainly worse than Houghton; whether it is better than Diepsloot may be impossible to assess), the Auditor-General’s office has certainly found consistently that DA councils manage their money better.

Operation Vulindlela

Now the ANC lekgotla has resolved that Operation Vulindlela must try to resolve some of these issues, and particularly the question of municipal debt.

The party’s head of its local government subcommittee, Parks Tau, was reported by Business Live to have said that, “There needs to be a greater appetite to partner with the private sector to mobilise resources in addressing some of the challenges and to ensure we mobilise resources across the board including [development finance] and blended finance. We need an overarching solution to the debt crisis in our local government system and how that affects service delivery.”

Many of Operation Vulindlela’s successes have involved the private sector. But it is not clear how the private sector could get involved here.

It would seem the only way to do this would be to have some kind of loan programme. But it would be tough to convince any institution to lend money to a council that has shown plenty of evidence that it misspends money.

There is virtually no financial case that would encourage someone to lend a council in this situation any money at all. Because underneath the huge debt owed by most councils is their failure to collect revenue.

The ANC has said publicly several times that people must pay for the power they consume, and has campaigned against illegal connections. And it is well known how councils have relied on their electricity tariffs (the on-selling of electricity) to fund themselves. In at least one case this has led to a dispute over which council can charge which residents for power they supply.

But the party’s own Energy and Electricity Minister Kgosientso Ramakgopa has said that the current pricing system needs to be reviewed because the recent increases in power prices were simply unsustainable – people cannot afford to pay for what they use.

And of course, many municipalities simply do not have the tax base to ever fund themselves, never mind repaying the debt they have accrued.

Differences

At the same time, local government may be about to become more disputed, despite the creation of the coalition in national government. This is because there are now actors with more agendas than in the past, particularly because of what appears to be differences between the national ANC and the provincial and regional elements in the party.

For example, in Joburg, Al Jama-ah Mayor Kabelo Gwamanda has still not left office, despite a promise by the ANC that he would do so by August.

The plan by the ANC in Joburg to win support from Action SA (which has consistently said it would never work with the ANC) appears to be falling through.

The context here is that the Gauteng ANC has formed a minority administration, refusing to work with the DA. As previously indicated, this may suggest the Joburg ANC’s plan to work with Action SA may simply be to keep the DA out of power in the city.

The situation is still more complicated.

While Gwamanda belongs to Al Jama-ah, his head of communications, Mlimandlela Ndimase, has a long history of working for the ANC. In particular, he was the spokesperson for Nomvula Mokonyane when she was the Minister of Water Affairs. It was during this time that the second phase of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project was delayed because of her insistence on BEE provisions in the contract. That delay may put Gauteng’s water supplies at risk in the future.

Agendas

Considering the importance of communication for a person who is a mayor, it is certainly significant that a mayor from one party is prepared to have a spokesperson from another party.

This reveals how many agendas there are in local government. And that while the national ANC may wish the national coalition to “cascade” to local government, there will be serious opposition to this.

There will be much speculation as to why this is the case. But certainly, there are important regional interests that would prefer to avoid working with the DA, and they have significant power.

Of course, it is not correct to directly link the DA’s possible involvement in local government with the reform of local government.

Tshwane has had a mayor from the DA for several years and is still battling to provide proper services.

One of the reasons for this is that many other groups will oppose any kind of reform.

Officials have spoken many times of a “water tanker mafia” that deliberately sabotages water infrastructure.

Other, perhaps less organised groups, have a long history of vandalising electrical equipment, or simply stealing other infrastructure.

All of this suggests that despite the ANC’s best efforts, the lived experience of most people in most councils will not improve in any significant way by the local elections due in 2026.

The results of this year’s national and provincial elections have surely shattered the image of the ANC as destined to govern “until Jesus comes”.

They may only be a foretaste of the revelation to come in local government. DM

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South Africa

Operation Vulindlela

Differences

Agendas