Coming to your neighbourhood — the African National Freedom Fighters? Not as simple as you might think

While the ANC and EFF may gain by working together in municipal councils, a closer look reveals there are complex political issues that could make any formal relationship difficult. The toughest issue may be how such a coalition agreement would affect their 2024 showing.

This gets to the heart of the aims of the two parties and what their leaders may be planning. Central to all of this is the question of whether they can trust each other over a short, long, or any period.

The question of whether the ANC and the EFF can form coalitions together is relatively simple. The EFF came out of the ANC; they have similar histories, they use similar revolutionary slogans, and thus there is nothing to really prevent them from working together now.

Then, there is another aspect.

In the 2016 local government elections the EFF won 8.6% of the national vote. In last week’s elections, it won 10.42%. In numerical terms, in 2016 the EFF won a total of 2,446,662 votes (these include the fact that in local elections you vote either twice or three times, on separate ballot papers). In 2021, the total number of votes won by the EFF was 2,420,007.

The elections analyst Dawie Scholtz tweeted that the EFF won exactly the same share of the vote in Soweto, 14%, that it won five years ago.

This suggests that the EFF is not able to increase its share of the vote, which, for a party with grand ambitions, amounts to losing momentum. There may now be suspicion that any attempt by Malema to form a coalition with the ANC may really be part of a bigger plan to somehow return to the mother party.

Meanwhile, the ANC might find that its longer-term interests are not best served by working with the EFF.

If it is true that many people stayed away from the polls, or voted against the ANC because the party is seen as corrupt, this may be a primary factor heading into the 2024 national elections. Thus, doing a deal with a party whose leaders have been publicly accused of horrendous corruption may be a bad choice that will have a further negative impact on the ANC’s sagging image nationwide.

Of course, Julius Malema’s main aim may well be to push the ANC below 50% nationally, hoping to increase his political leverage in whatever is to follow.

If that is the case, it would be better to put his mother party under as much pressure as possible. It could be that keeping it out of power in every single way is the best route to that. However, Malema may feel that being in a formal coalition with the ANC would put it under even more pressure.

Here the EFF’s demands, published at the weekend, are a useful indicator. The party says it wants “timeframes”. 

These include amending the Constitution to allow the expropriation of land without compensation within six months, the complete nationalisation of the Reserve Bank in a year, the cancellation of student debt in a year, and the removal of Die Stem from the national anthem, among many others.

Intriguingly, the EFF is also calling for the publication of a coalition agreement between the two.

These are all national political demands, and while it may seem that some in the ANC will support the EFF’s demands, Malema may be asking for too much.

First, the two parties recently failed in Parliament to agree on the land issue. Second, they have radically different views on what should happen to land once it is expropriated — the EFF believes all land should be nationalised, while the ANC believes in land tenure. These are radically opposing views that cannot be smoothed over.

The demand to nationalise the SA Reserve Bank could also put the ANC in the position of having to spend billions of rands of government money with no other practical benefit than being able to run local authorities. The nationalisation of the SARB is symbolic, as the private shareholders have no impact on its operations or on the Monetary Policy Committee which sets interest rates. Such a move, apart from delivering a boost to the EFF’s confidence, could cost South Africa for many decades to come. It is too steep a price.

It may also be impossible for the ANC to agree to the cancellation of student debt. This would involve billions of rands being added to our government debt. It may also mean the end of the National Student Financial Aid Scheme, which does not make sense considering how much time, effort and resources have been put into making it run effectively.

The EFF’s demands may be an attempt to force the ANC to change some of its policies. These policies have been in place for many years, and in some cases go back generations (for example, the ANC has said that it insisted on the property clause in the Constitution, to ensure that black people do not ever again have their land expropriated).

Normally, policies such as these can only be changed at a conference; to just change them as part of a coalition agreement would be unpopular with branches, which are used to having a say in these discussions.

For the ANC to simply change its policies at the behest of a much smaller party will have an impact on the perception of the party and on its internal dynamics. It would also deliver a slap to an already sore face, one that could hurt for generations.

Speaking at an ANC event on Monday, Ramaphosa told supporters that “we don’t want casual agreements” and promised that ANC members would know what is in these agreements. The EFF officially agrees.