COP27’s mixed bag dashes high expectations but ‘AfricaCOP’ shows signs of promise

Sharm el-Sheikh is a famous venue for agreements and is sometimes referred to as the ‘City of Peace’ with its history of Palestine-Israel summits. Those peace deals were temporary, with only baby steps forward. Did the November 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27) follow suit?

The build-up to the ‘Africa COP’ promised better deals for the developing world. The vision of a “moment of transformation in climate action” was set by COP27 president Sameh Hassan Shoukry. 

As the desert dust settles, a mixed bag of results is evident. An important outcome was the positive movement on loss and damage. But there was a lack of progress on mitigation targets, and despite the promises around climate adaptation, the reality remains unsure.

The highlight was the agreement on the Loss and Damage Fund, which covers droughts, damage from floods, storms, wildfires and heatwaves, and the negative impacts of sea level rise. It was an enormous struggle just getting this onto the COP27 agenda, but the developing country group, including the African Group of Negotiators, succeeded. Hopefully, this achievement won’t be watered down in negotiations on the fund’s modalities, and the high historical emitters will meet their commitments.

The conference was expected to move forward on vital mitigation targets — especially how to maintain the emissions goal of 1.5oC by 2100. This was to be achieved with a new global deal and stringent net-zero targets for all countries. But it ended badly, with the European Union delegation threatening to walk out due to the lack of progress. 

According to analytical platforms such as the Climate Action Tracker, it’s a difficult course to a +2.7oC world. Some might even say we took a step backwards by endorsing low-emissions fuels in the Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan. 

Another lowlight was COP27’s promise of more funding and resources for climate adaptation. The $100-billion pledge remains unfulfilled, and the vision of that increasing to a much higher number is still a mirage.

Discussions with old hands at the climate negotiations yielded many perspectives. The dominant ones were the aspirational versus the pragmatic lenses. The high hopes of the former — that COP27 would mark a greater appreciation of the science and devastating impact of climate change — were dashed. 

Before COP27, the first three instalments of the 6th Assessment Report outlined the basis of climate change, adaptation and vulnerability, and mitigation. The reports provided clear scientific consensus that global warming was due to greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activity. And that we are already 1.2oC above preindustrial levels, and the window for mitigation is rapidly closing.