DA: A party stoking its funeral pyre?

The resignation of Herman Mashaba as mayor of Johannesburg following the election of Helen Zille as Democratic Alliance federal council chair has led to inevitable speculation about the future of the party’s leader, Mmusi Maimane.

It does appear, for the moment at least, that a situation has been created that is impossible for Maimane to manage, or even to survive as the leader of the country's leading opposition party. At the same time, the party’s report into its losses in the May elections makes a particular finding that all of the party’s top leadership should resign.

However, this all ignores what is still the most important question facing the DA: who could possibly replace Maimane? That leads to the sub-question: can the party stay together in an environment that is likely to become only more contested?

Maimane is in a terribly uncomfortable position. Zille’s election is about much more than just her and Maimane. It is also about the situation that the party is in. Even before this weekend’s elections, Maimane was in a similar position to Theresa May's before she resigned as Britain’s prime minister and Conservative Party leader. His party is hopelessly divided on the big issue of the day, race. And race, by its nature, can be an incredibly divisive issue.

By adding several strong personalities to the fray, including Zille and Mashaba, this would be an impossible situation for almost anyone to manage.

It could be argued that the ANC has the same problems, and that much of this year has been taken up with discussions about the divisions in that party. The difference is that the ANC is in the national government, and power can be a particularly sticky glue which helps people to ignore their differences, ideological and financial, for long periods of time.

The DA does not have that exact same luxury. The ANC also does not have to confront race in the same way that the DA does. In many ways, it is precisely because of the problems the DA has with managing diversity that Maimane was such an attractive proposition for Zille in the first place. Back in 2011, he was young, good with the media and on stage, and fantastic on the campaign trail. For a party trying to change its racial identity while holding on to its core minority voters, he was a perfect choice. The racial identity of his wife, the fact that he had a firm hold on aspirational voters, the entire package made sense for the DA at the time.

Just four years later, in 2015 it seemed equally obvious that he was the perfect person to be the party’s leader. The party was growing, Jacob Zuma's corrupt presidency was making it obvious the ANC was going to lose votes, and there were metros for the taking.

To a large extent, the 2016 local government results proved this strategy correct. And when it came to Parliament, Maimane was the perfect person to take on Zuma. Confrontations between them, Maimane’s contention that Zuma “was a broken man leading a broken country” revealed the divisions between an older more rural South Africa and a younger, more urban South Africa. Race did not enter into those confrontations in the way they had in the past.

Now of course, life is very different, in South Africa and in its politics.

The election of Zille and what that means for Maimane is not necessarily the biggest problem that he faces. The report that he requested from Tony Leon, Ryan Coetzee and Michiel le Roux may present a greater obstacle. That report says, in clear language, “... That those ultimately responsible for the leadership and management of the party – the leader, chairperson of federal council and chief executive – step down and make way for new leadership”.

It could not be clearer.

Maimane’s critics in the party can now refer to this report, and point out that he himself requested it and is now refusing to implement it. This will surely be difficult for him to counter.

That said, he does have some arguments. He can point out that no one could have foreseen how SA politics would change. The dynamic that has led to racial polarisation in South Africa was underestimated and has had an outsize impact on the DA compared to other parties (because of its racially diverse membership).

The real dilemma facing the DA is that it is difficult to see who could replace Maimane as leader and take the party forward. The party sometimes mirrors the problems facing the country. Everyone wants to move forward in a united fashion. But the arguments start as soon as any group has to make real concessions.

This leads to perhaps Maimane’s strongest argument: that an attempt to remove him may lead to a damaging leadership contest in the DA – a contest that the party may not survive in its current form.

At the same time, it is important to note that a gap has emerged in SA politics. There are many many voters who do not trust the ANC and are not attracted to anything else, including the EFF's radical strain of populism. This has been the DA’s difficulty: it is not offering a political home to these people. It has not reached out in a way that demonstrates it understands their feelings and views.

Much of that may have to do with the DA still being perceived as a “white” party. Someone who may have spotted this gap is Mashaba. It is rare for a person with his ambition, political talents and resources to give up a position like the Joburg mayoralty without some other kind of plan. His refusal to discuss his future for the moment will fuel speculation about his future. Certainly, his high public profile may well lead to suggestions that he is about to form his own political vehicle, possibly with help from other political figures.

For Maimane, the final decision may rest on the fact that he cannot be enjoying the situation he is now in. He may well feel there is no point in soldiering on, and that there may be a moral imperative for him to resign because he did not gain the party more votes during the elections.

It is clear that the current situation in the DA cannot continue. The continuing divisions between Maimane and Zille will only damage the party, and a solution must be found. There will be many who think a short, sharp leadership contest is that solution, but that could easily backfire by turning into a blazing nationwide fight that would damage the party beyond recognition. Any party, particularly South Africa’s biggest opposition party, can hardly afford such funeral pyre. DM