DD ‘Destiny Denied’ Mabuza — it is cold outside the ANC factions’ warm embrace

27 Nov 2022

Predominantly, this is a story of constituencies and the importance of national, broad-based support, and how easily the mirage of strong followership can melt under the gaze of the party nomination process.

Last week came confirmation that, barring the biggest of political shocks, Deputy President David Mabuza will not be in the ANC’s top six national leadership after the ANC’s elective conference next month. This is in stark contrast to what appeared to be his strong position just five years ago, when he appeared to hold the balance of power in the ANC. It may well be that this kingmaking power and the way he exercised it have led to his apparent abandonment.

There are other factors that contributed to Mabuza’s loss of national power, including what has happened in Mpumalanga since 2017, what may have been the artificial nature of politics in that province, and his own conduct in the role of Deputy President, both of the party and the state.

His fall could well be a salutary lesson for the man who appears destined to take his position, the current ANC treasurer and Gauteng strongman, Paul Mashatile.

It is difficult now to remember just how potent Mabuza was five years ago. It is generally accepted that without his intervention, Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma would have won the ANC presidency. This would have led to the continued supremacy of Jacob Zuma’s faction, and a likely party split. It would have also been coupled with massive social turmoil as a result of the continuation of Gupta-aligned control of South Africa just as the #GuptaLeaks laid bare most of their crimes.

It was this central positioning that forced the CR17 campaign to make Mabuza Deputy President. Mabuza even had the power to force Ramaphosa to postpone his Cabinet announcement.

This was the same Mabuza who took an active part in public debate.

He memorably scolded Ace Magashule for using government money to hold a farewell event for himself in a Bloemfontein stadium.

He gave a powerful speech at a farmers’ event, sounding like an impressive national leader when he said: “It is understandable that human beings are prone, in times of national strife, in times of bitter socioeconomic hardship, in times of hard debates about land reform, to retreat easily into narrow nationalist, racial and ethnic enclaves… However, I stand in front of you on this day to state with conviction that this path we have chosen is the correct one.”

This is a far cry from the Mabuza of today.

Hiding from the public eye

He went on to almost hide from the public eye. Perhaps the biggest headlines he has sparked in recent times have been about a second car accident suffered by his VIP convoy, in which one guard lost his life.

Predominantly, this is a story of constituencies and the importance of national, broad-based support, and how easily the mirage of strong followership can melt under the gaze of the party nomination process.

This goes back to how Mabuza achieved the power he appeared to have in 2017, which was mostly based on the surprisingly high (some would say Potemkin) number of ANC branches in Mpumalanga.

In 2012, Mpumalanga had the fifth-highest number of branches in the ANC, and in 2017 it “grew” massively, all the way to the second-highest, just behind the KZN (which had its own massive growth in the race for a million members in time for the ANC’s 100th birthday, and which also magically benefited the then president, Jacob Zuma — Ed). Now, in 2022, it again has the fifth-highest.

It is clear now this was all as fake as IOL headlines.

At the same time, while he had often been described as a provincial “strongman”, once he left the province for the national office, Mabuza lost his grip on branches there.

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In his absence, almost suddenly, it appeared as if there were four factions in the ANC in Mpumalanga.

Mabuza suddenly had no clear and committed constituency, and his backing eroded. This movement away from him may also be related to his decision to back Ramaphosa five years ago. It gave a strong impression that he had betrayed what was called the Premier League, which backed Dlamini Zuma.

This was unforgivable.

Strangely, for those who benefited from the 2017 Nasrec result, it may be because Mabuza did the right thing that year, that he is suffering now.

To add to this is what appears to be the difficulty that provincial ANC leaders experience when they move to national politics.

Mabuza is not alone in this problem. Magashule was also a provincial strongman who did not last long in national politics, and Zweli Mkhize went from provincial politics to the position of ANC treasurer in 2012, but lasted only one term (and even now, the vast majority of his support for the position of ANC leader still comes from KZN).

A lack of achievements and visits to Russian doctors

But there is also Mabuza’s behaviour.

It is hard to think of one achievement that he can point to as Deputy President.

This is despite having what was claimed to be political authority over two of the biggest problems of our times: the Covid-19 vaccine roll-out and Eskom.

The roll-out happened, it seemed, without him.

The Eskom crisis kept rolling on with him doing nothing to stop it.

And then there is his health.

As has been previously stated, it is probably impossible to accurately assess the impact of this, but he has said that he has visited Russia several times for medical treatment. Despite being asked questions about this in Parliament, he has resolutely refused to explain what the treatment is for, or why doctors in Russia are so much more effective than doctors in South Africa.

It is easy to imagine what would happen if, for example, a leader of the DA went to the US for medical treatment, how there would be claims that this was proof that the opposition was funded by or in debt to the CIA. Needless to say, it is a massive strategic threat to South Africa that the man who’s one heartbeat away from the presidency is in such debt to a superpower, especially an aggressive one that is spreading its tentacles all over Africa.

Guarded nature of his answers

There is also the incredibly guarded nature of his answers to parliamentary questions. He has almost always stuck rigidly to a pre-written script. When asked supplementary questions he has said almost nothing substantive.

Mabuza has taken every opportunity to answer questions virtually rather than in person. While he has the right to do this, answering questions in person signifies that he understands and accepts the rights of others to ask questions and can provide substantive answers.

Outside Parliament, he has taken questions from journalists only a handful of times. And, as far as is known, he has not conducted a single sit-down broadcast interview with any journalist in the past decade.

While ANC politics does not rely on the media, there is evidence that the way politicians perform in the English-speaking broadcast and online media has become more important in our politics of late. It explains why so many ANC politicians are so happy to do so many interviews.

But not Mabuza. Which may well confirm the suspicions of those who remember how he was able to have a journalist arrested simply for receiving a fax.

It may also reinforce the impression that he does not believe he should be held publicly accountable.

However, it should also be remembered that, with the exception of Thabo Mbeki, no one has been able to really make a mark while Deputy President.

Jacob Zuma remained virtually silent for much of his time in the position, until he was fired by Mbeki; the same is true of Kgalema Motlanthe (although he may have used his position to pave the way behind the scenes for Ramaphosa’s eventual win in 2017), and Ramaphosa himself made only two really substantive comments during that time (the first was to support Pravin Gordhan when he was accused of fraud, the second to decry Zuma’s Cabinet reshuffle in March 2017).

It seems impossible to imagine the kind of shock necessary for Mabuza to now win a position in the ANC’s top six. And while the party may allow him to finish his term as Deputy President which expires in 2024, it is difficult to see him playing any substantive political role after that. DM

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South Africa

Hiding from the public eye

A lack of achievements and visits to Russian doctors

Guarded nature of his answers