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Deputy President Paul Mashatile’s political shots in the dark

Deputy President Paul Mashatile’s political shots in the dark
Stephen Grootes
By Stephen Grootes
23 Apr 2025
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The reaction of several senior ANC leaders to claims that shots were fired at a car carrying Deputy President Paul Mashatile may reveal that he is battling to gain traction in the leadership race.

Over the weekend, Deputy President Paul Mashatile attended a service at the KwaSizabantu mission in KwaZulu-Natal. The mission is famous because of the testimony of people who have given evidence that they were abused at the mission, making this a curious place for Mashatile to visit.

In some ways, this may have similarities with the visit by MK secretary-general Floyd Shivambu to the fugitive Shepherd Bushiri in Malawi. While this visit was condemned by MK, it could appear as if both leaders were looking for political support and perhaps even help in the form of resources from these groups that claim to be religious.

Then, on Sunday, came the first reports about gunshots fired at Mashatile’s car in Boksburg in March when he was travelling from an ANC NEC meeting. 

Curiously, the incident happened several weeks previously, and yet no information had entered the public domain until the Sunday of an Easter weekend, well known as a time when there is very little other news.

It would seem difficult to believe that in a political system where so many people leak so much information so often, shots being fired at a Deputy President was kept secret.

This may well lead to claims that the incident was not as serious as first claimed. Or that while something had happened, there was no suspicion that it was a political act or was aimed at hurting or killing Mashatile… or that someone believed it would be better to keep it quiet until now.

Reaction


The political reaction to this claim has been very revealing.

On Tuesday, speaking at the Northern Cape ANC’s provincial conference, the party’s provincial leader Zamani Saul appeared to indicate he didn’t believe a word of it.

As he put it, “Now there is an issue that the car of the deputy president was shot at, and there is that belief because it’s of the 2027 elective conference. Who in their right mind can believe that there is someone who wants to kill a deputy president of a 40% party. No one tried to kill our deputy presidents when we were a 70% party.”

In terms of ANC language, this is a condemnation. Saul is suggesting that not only is the claim nonsense, but that it is a deliberate attempt to garner sympathy or support.

ANC Treasurer, Gwen Ramakgopa told journalists at the same conference that, “Usually when there are these reports, and all that, many of them are fake, actually”.

Of course, Ramakgopa is correct, there is a long history of this kind of thing in the ANC and within the congress movement.

As long ago as 2011, then President Jacob Zuma claimed, without evidence, at the funeral of a former protector, that he had been targeted.

A year later, in 2012, Numsa general secretary Irwin Jim claimed to have been the victim of a similar kind of attempt, after a car carrying armed men followed him while on his way from an SACP conference in Richards Bay.

At the time, he had been deeply involved in the internal politics of Cosatu, which eventually saw Numsa kicked out of the federation.

Back then, SACP leaders reacted to his claims in the same way Saul and Ramakgopa have reacted to these; they inferred that he was seeking attention.

Telling response


Strangely, the SACP is reacting differently now.

On Monday, it issued a statement saying of the alleged shooting that “this criminal act represents not only an assault on an individual, but a direct attack on the democratic institutions of our Republic”.

This is in stark contrast to the reactions of Saul and Ramakgopa.

Certainly, Saul and Ramakgopa are strong supporters of Ramaphosa and his reformist agenda, while the SACP is now preparing to campaign directly against the ANC.

But this may also indicate what is now the real dividing line of our politics, whether or not people support the current coalition involving the ANC and the DA.

The SACP has strongly opposed the ANC’s decision to work with the DA. So has Mashatile.

Political headwinds


But it also appears that Mashatile may well have suffered a recent political loss.

Just two weeks ago, he said publicly that he “would be ashamed” to be a DA minister who voted against the adoption of the fiscal framework, while remaining in Cabinet.

This appeared to indicate that he wanted to remove the DA from the coalition.

It has long been presumed by many observers that Mashatile would be more comfortable in a coalition involving the EFF or MK, rather than the DA.

But despite his public comments, the ANC’s top leadership appears to have decided to continue working with the DA. At least for now.

This question is also completely intertwined with the leadership of the ANC.

The DA would probably refuse to work with Mashatile as ANC leader, while the EFF and MK cannot work with Ramaphosa as President.

This may well suggest that Mashatile is feeling increasingly isolated among the top seven national officials of the ANC.

Succession


At the same time, it is worth repeating that despite Ramaphosa first being elected ANC leader seven-and-a-half years ago, there is still no clarity on who will succeed him. Or even who he wants to succeed him.

In some ways, there is a lack of public passion or even interest in the question, even though the ANC is still twice the size of our next-biggest party.

This probably bears out Saul’s point, that the ANC is now a “40% party” and thus does not attract the attention it once did.

But it may also suggest that the factions in the ANC are simply not as organised as they once were… that while in 2017 it was relatively easy to understand the two main groups (those who supported Zuma and those who wanted Ramaphosa), now the ANC is best understood as a collection of diffuse groups, that only coalesce around certain issues.

This would make campaigning and organising ahead of a party conference much more difficult. The fact that Mashatile may, in public at least, be battling to gain traction could be an indication of that dynamic.

If this is the case, it also means that any contender against Mashatile will have the same problem.

While Mashatile claims in public not to be ambitious, it is clear that he is already in campaign mode. For the moment, no one seems to be challenging him.

And, it is likely that there will be no real conclusion to the question of what really happened to his car. DM

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