Destiny awaits for Siya’s Boks, but the fight for glory will be hard

Standing in the Springboks’ way in the final of Rugby World Cup 2019 is an England team filled with skill and class, backed by a sensational coach and a wealthy union that has spared no expense in its pursuit of World Cup glory.

Standing behind the Springboks is an entire nation in desperate need of something to cheer. Archbishop Desmond Tutu summed it up best in a letter to the team this week.

“Captain of the nation, Siya Kolisi, ou Rassie, Chessie, en al die manne Siyabulela! Ngiyabonga! Thank you!

“Your dignity, diversity and courage are infectious. You have restored South African rugby’s pride, and made us all feel good about ourselves. A World Cup final is a highly pressured environment, but if you feel weightless when you run onto that Yokohama field on Saturday it will be because you are being carried by the love, respect and prayers of 56 million of us at home.

“You have already won! God bless you.”

The Kolisi narrative, ending with him in glory on the podium, is one we all want, but not one that will be given to him or the team. The Boks will have to scrap for every metre of territory and every inch of space to pull off what would be an upset.

Yes, a Springbok victory would be an upset. Not an upset in the same way Japan beating the Boks at Rugby World Cup 2015 was, but still a victory against the form book.

England under Eddie Jones have become the most complete team in the world. Their mixture of slick attack set against the holy trinity of dominant set piece, iron defence and superior tactical kicking makes them formidable. But not unbeatable.

No side is invincible and every team has its weaknesses.



Tactical Battle

The Boks don’t have the same attacking sharpness as England, mostly because under their fine coach Rassie Erasmus, they have only had 20 months and 25 Tests to pick themselves up off the floor and rebuild.

Erasmus’ team will match England’s defence and kicking game, and possibly even shade the set pieces, but it doesn’t have the same variation on attack. So the key is not to give England field position to attack from.

England run strike plays off first phase, usually with two lines of runners – a big carrier such as prop Mako Vunipola in the first line, ensuring that defenders have to stay on him.

The second line, spearheaded by the George Ford/Owen Farrell axis behind, can bring width to the game if scrumhalf Ben Youngs shifts the ball, using Vunipola as a decoy. That’s where the Boks’ defence will have to come alive.

They cannot leave Vunipola and others poorly marked but his carries and decoy runs can compress the defence. A few slick passes and the likes of wings Jonny May and Anthony Watson will be in acres of space.

But that attacking intent from England will only thrive in positive field position and, for them, the way they gain that territory is through kicking deeper than most teams.

Contestable kicks are all the rage, and the Boks hoist more than most. Scrumhalf Faf de Klerk looks to land them about 20 metres downfield, giving wings Cheslin Kolbe and Makazole Mapimpi a chance to cover the ground and contest.

England’s halfbacks tend to kick the ball about 30 metres, meaning they are less interested in contesting and more curious about making the likes of Willie le Roux stray from the blueprint.

If Le Roux suddenly feels he has space and time, he could try to launch a counterattack. That’s where England’s chase line sniffs opportunity. They want to isolate the ball carrier in a poor area of the field, allowing their marauding flanks Tom Curry and Sam Underhill to swoop on the ball.

Variation

The Boks have to maintain discipline by sticking to the plan and not falling into the England trap. They will also have to show some more intent with possession, even if that means varying their kicking game.

They almost exclusively kick off De Klerk, but perhaps changing the point of attack by kicking off flyhalf Handré Pollard, or even wider out from centres Damian de Allende and Lukhanyo Am, will force England to alter their defensive shape.

Jones’ side will be well set up to deal with De Klerk’s kicks, so some subtle changes by the Boks could lead to some confusion.

Up front dominating set pieces are key and the Boks have the bench to maintain their power game for however long it takes. England’s forward reserves are not as deep. They don’t want the game to be in the balance in the dying minutes with a wilting pack against the Boks’ power finishers.

If there is one wrinkle in England’s armour, ironically it sits with captain Farrell. He is magnificent in most departments, but one-on-one tackling has been an issue.

He missed seven tackles in the 19-7 semi-final win over the All Blacks. That’s possibly a symptom of not fully trusting Ford’s defence. It could be a small crack for the Boks to exploit with De Allende running into that space.

Kolbe’s return after missing the semi-final win over Wales is also a boost. His speed, agility and ability to read the game are essential components of the Bok game plan.

Nothing in the tank

“We may not be the favourites, but the players will leave nothing in the tank,” Erasmus vowed. “At the end of the day, all you can ask is that they leave nothing on the field. If you are beaten by the better team, that’s life.

“We were a bit nervous when we lost Cheslin before the semi-final. We have good cover there, but he is world-class, as he has always shown when playing for us. He has that X-factor and with the way England defend it is something we will definitely need.”

Kolisi, who will also play his 50^th Test, deflected attention from himself to pay attention to the team and its focus.

“We have bought into coach Rassie’s plans and we have given it everything,” Kolisi said. “It would be huge to show our country that no matter where we come from, if we can bind to one plan, we can achieve our goals – that’s how important it would be for us as a team or a country to win this.”

Kolisi said that the team was prepared for the challenge and looking forward to the unique experience – for all of them bar 2007 Rugby World Cup winner Frans Steyn – of appearing in a final.

“It’s not just another game; it’s the World Cup final,” he said.

“Not many people get this opportunity and we know that as a team – so the emotions are high. We’ve just got to channel those emotions in the right way.

“It’s a special day for every single guy in the team. We have prepared as much as we can for what we need to do as a team.

“So we’re going to give it our best tomorrow. We are going to do what we have been doing and trust our plan. It has gotten us this far and we don’t have to change much.

“We just have to give it everything we can. I know what this means to our country.”

Prediction: Springboks by 4 points. DM

South Africa vs England (Saturday, 11am)

South Africa – 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (capt), 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Tendai Mtawarira. Reserves: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Franco Mostert, 21 Francois Louw, 22 Herschel Jantjies, 23 Frans Steyn.

England – 15 Elliot Daly, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Manu Tuilagi, 12 Owen Farrell (capt), 11 Jonny May, 10 George Ford, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 Sam Underhill, 6 Tom Curry, 5 Courtney Lawes, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Kyle Sinckler, 2 Jamie George, 1 Mako Vunipola.
Reserves: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Joe Marler, 18 Dan Cole, 19 George Kruis, 20 Mark Wilson, 21 Ben Spencer, 22 Henry Slade, 23 Jonathan Joseph.