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Donald Trump and South Africa — this is just the beginning

Donald Trump and South Africa — this is just the beginning
Stephen Grootes
By Stephen Grootes
4 Feb 2025
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The words and actions of US President Donald Trump about his country’s aid to South Africa, expropriation and a ‘certain class of people’ are a reminder of how we can be a ‘swing country’ in geopolitics. But this is also part of a strategy by Trump to dominate the news all the time everywhere. In the process, he may be hoping to shift the ‘Overton Window’, what is acceptable in public discourse, to the right in a dramatic fashion.

US President Donald Trump’s comments about the Expropriation Act (which will not result in land being taken for nil compensation unless it has been abandoned) are a deliberate dog-whistle to his voters.

He is proving to them that he will fight for all white people everywhere. 

But there may also be a greater strategic objective.

It can sometimes be forgotten that because of the diversity in our society, we can be a vital nation in discussions about geopolitics. 

Large groups of South Africans will support Russia, or the US, or China, or Israel, or Palestine. Only South Africa could find itself hosting a BRICS Summit and an Agoa meeting in the same year.

This makes us an important target, if you can change the actions and views of our government (often through speaking to our voters directly through our free and independent media) you will have convinced a “swing country” of your course.

This is one of the reasons why our government’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice was so important around the world. It was a signal that a diverse country could take a strong stance against Israel, despite having a vocal Jewish population, many of whom support Israel.

It was also for this reason that the Biden Administration used the docking of the Lady R in Simonstown to send a signal to the rest of the world that, as military strategy Professor Abel Esterhuyse put it, “The US will tolerate neutrality but nothing more”.

And, if Trump could weaken our ties to BRICS, that would be a huge victory.

Land issue


It is also not the first time the issue of land has been used by foreign politicians.

In 2018, the Australian Home Affairs Minister at the time, Peter Dutton, publicly considered giving white South African farmers asylum on “humanitarian grounds”. He was doing exactly what Trump is doing, telling white voters he will stand up for them.

As a result of our situation, we may have to get used to the idea that Trump is going to target us in various ways for a long time.

At the same time, there is plenty of evidence that Trump’s administration wants to transform both the place of the US in the world, but also the world itself.

His words and actions will have been dominating discussions in the US, but in many countries around the world, because his comments and tariffs will affect them.

Here, while there was some fuss in the days after President Cyril Ramaphosa signed the Expropriation Act into law, the issue was fading from our politics.

Read more: Ramaphosa’s signing of Expropriation Act may be a carefully calculated political chess move

Now, because of Trump, it is centre stage again.

The consequence of Trump’s strategy is that he can move the entire world to the right.

While he will obviously not succeed in all of his aims, he can still move the Overton Window in a rightward direction.

For example, while the courts have so far prevented him from removing the right of people born in the US to automatic citizenship, it will now be part of a political discussion in a way that was unthinkable a month ago.

The same goes for his plans to force US citizens serving prison terms for violent crimes to be forced into prisons in El Salvador. It may not succeed, but the issue will remain in the public debate for a long time.

What makes this so effective for Trump in geopolitics is the sheer economic heft of the US. Without that, he could almost be ignored.

This has a huge impact on the conversations in our country.

While all of the parties of the national coalition united to explain that Trump’s view of our Expropriation Act was simply wrong (he was, of course, lying), his move still reveals the economic weakness of our position.

Ramaphosa’s options


Ramaphosa is now in a position where he both wants the funding that has been withdrawn reinstated, and has a duty to stand up to a bully.

Trump will be well aware of this. It’s one of the reasons he did it.

But, the withdrawal of money that currently funds programmes for people living with HIV and Aids, is an immoral act. It shows that someone is not concerned about the health of human beings. 

It is a demonstration that for Trump, his agenda is more important than people.

Unfortunately, as Carol Paton’s interview with Joel Pollak, Trump’s likely nominee to be US Ambassador to South Africa shows, Trump clearly has big plans for South Africa.

These involve changing the stance of our government on many issues.

None of these take into account our democracy or the wishes of our people. Trump now lives in a world in which his economic might is right.

This may be similar to South Africa saying to Lesotho that it will close its borders and prevent people from crossing the border to work, unless it supports our case against Israel.

In other words, it is simple bullying.

South Africa is unlikely to be alone in this. Voters and leaders in places as diverse as Canada, Mexico and the whole of the EU (Trump has recently threatened tariffs against the EU, too) may well feel the same.

This means that there may be an opportunity for one person, or one country, to be seen as standing up to Trump.

Political aggression


While Ramaphosa’s usual political demeanour can give the impression he prefers a peaceful response to politicians who oppose him, this is only by his choice.

He can, from time to time, give a very disciplined and yet politically aggressive performance that can demolish political opponents. 

Perhaps the most recent example was at the Global Financial Pact Summit about vaccines in the aftermath of Covid. It was a gathering of world leaders, including many presidents and prime ministers in Paris in 2023.

The video of his speech demonstrates how he can confront people in the same room to devastating effect. 

https://youtu.be/ZMsO6h1buy0?si=gu8bGwKG5NUGFfEY

The person who would do this successfully would have to be a democratically elected leader, preferably to be seen leading a government with a broad and diverse mandate.

And have both strong ties to other bigger powers, such as China, and yet democratic legitimacy.

South Africa, and thus Ramaphosa, may be an ideal candidate for this position.

At the same time, it should be remembered that in politics, actions often lead to reactions. The pendulum can swing both back, and forth.

Trump may be trying to move the Overton Window to the right around the world.

But the response may be that more people in South Africa feel the US is no longer a reasonable country. They might, with some regret, feel the need to strengthen our relationships with other countries.

Particularly those that do not play political games with people living with HIV and Aids.

Thus, the final impact may in fact be to move South Africa away from the US, into the arms of another, more accommodating power. DM

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