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‘Dysfunctional and too complex’ — Independent Eskom assessment makes damning load shedding findings

‘Dysfunctional and too complex’ — Independent Eskom assessment makes damning load shedding findings
Eskom employees at Grootvlei Power Station on the day the Minister of Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa visited the station on 28 March 2023, in Grootvlei, Mpumalanga. (Photo: Julia Evans)
Ethan van Diemen
By Ethan van Diemen
1 Mar 2024
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Commissioned by National Treasury, an evaluation of Eskom’s coal fleet operations has found them sorely lacking. The conclusion was that the root cause of rolling blackouts is the utility’s management system being ‘dysfunctional and too complex’.

An independent assessment of the operational situation at Eskom’s fleet of coal-fired power stations remained under wraps until Friday 1 March. It reveals damning findings showing that despite Eskom’s maintenance budget for its coal fleet being higher relative to international benchmarks, its Energy Availability Factor (EAF) is much lower largely due to a “dysfunctional and too complex” management system. 

It also found that up to six stages of load shedding could be avoided by fixing the plants’ defects and applying “prudent operation and maintenance practice” and that the unavailable capacity at the time of about 17,419.5MW “corresponds to financial losses of about R152-billion per year — not taking the cost of diesel into account”.

The assessment, which was led by the VGBE energy association, was appointed in early 2023 by the National Treasury. Their report was finalised and handed over to Minister Enoch Godongwana in September.

“The plant management, with its limited authority and high level of interference from headquarters, is unable to focus its attention on its primary responsibility: reliable plant Operation and Maintenance. Currently, even a mediocre level of performance is accepted as sufficient.”

The authors of that report — titled Independent Assessment of Eskom’s Operational Situation — explain that the main objective of the coal fleet investigation was to “find out reasons for the low Energy Availability Factor (EAF) of the coal fleet — 50.83% as of April 2023 — and to develop measures to improve the situation”.

Eskom’s Lethabo coal-fired power station. (Photo: EPA-EFE/KIM LUDBROOK)


Percentage of electricity available


EAF is the percentage of maximum energy generation that a plant is capable of supplying to the electrical grid, which is limited only by planned and unplanned outages. Put differently, it is the percentage of electricity available at any one time after accounting for unplanned unit losses or units shut down for planned maintenance.  

The consortium referred to the maintenance budget figures from coal-fired power plants operated in Europe, America and Asia to define an international benchmark, and found that from 2013 to 2027, Eskom’s budgets for plant maintenance were “well above the international benchmark”.

Despite this, the EAF of Eskom’s coal fleet — at the time of the assessment — was at about 51%, whereas international benchmarks are in the range of 78%.

A media statement issued on 1 March 2024.



Single root cause

In its findings, the report concluded that most of the issues relating to the low EAF can be attributed to a single root cause: 

“The management system with its governance, structure and processes is dysfunctional and too complex.” 

It goes into more detail explaining that:

  • “Too many organisational layers and opaque decision-making processes generate a tremendous amount of red tape, with lengthy procedures and a lack of accountability. In many cases, the decision-making is delegated to committees, of which there are too many at all levels of the hierarchy.”

  • “The coal fleet is managed centrally, and very limited authority is given to the plant management. The plant management has to follow complex procedures and is therefore unable to manage day-to-day operations and maintenance challenges in a timely and effective manner.”

  • “Eskom generation has been trapped within this complex management system for so long that it is no longer able to maintain or improve the technical performance of the coal-fired power plants.”

  • “Although the problems and their solutions are known, the Eskom management has not been able to implement appropriate measures in a sustainable and successful manner.”


Read more in Daily Maverick: 25 years in the making – the real reasons we have rolling blackouts according to De Ruyter

It does not just diagnose the issues, it provides potential solutions. The authors of the report summarise these in one sentence: 

“Operation and Maintenance (O&M) must be improved and conducted according to industry standards.”

The authors continue that:

  • “The plant management, with its limited authority and high level of interference from headquarters, is unable to focus its attention on its primary responsibility: reliable plant O&M. Currently, even a mediocre level of performance (e.g. EAF) is accepted as sufficient.”

  • “Since O&M procedures have not been carried out correctly for years, the overall condition of plant health is in many cases mediocre to poor.”

  • “In O&M management, many deficits were identified. The quality of operations has suffered from a lack of ownership and leadership, as well as a lack of training and high staff turnover. The planning and execution of maintenance work need to be more stringent, more goal-oriented and more carefully executed.”

  • “In particular, the complicated procurement policy and processes proved to be a bottleneck in supporting the plants with timely provision of spare parts and qualified services by third parties. In addition to its impact on plant performance, the procurement process is also a significant contributor to high service and supply costs.”


The authors of the report note that the fixation on EAF, however, is “a dead end and leads to poorer plant performance.”

  • “The plants have been forced to continue operating at the expense of their technical condition. The consequences are reflected in the high number of incidents, trips and partial load losses (PLL).”

  • “This cycle has now gained so much momentum that it could lead to the collapse of plants or to further capacity losses. It must be stopped immediately by executing proper maintenance and outage work – even if this means a higher level of load shedding for a limited period of time.”


They explain that up to six stages of load shedding can be avoided “by fixing the plants’ defects and applying prudent operation and maintenance practice”. 

Eskom employees at Grootvlei Power Station Eskom employees at Grootvlei Power Station on the day the Minister of Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa visited the station on 28 March 2023, in Grootvlei, Mpumalanga. (Photo: Julia Evans)


Next steps


So what is to be done? The experts say immediate and urgent intervention is needed, failing which, “the situation will continue to escalate”. 

“Besides empowering the power plant management, the VGBE team recommends engaging an interim external expert team, which reports directly to the National Treasury. Member(s) of the expert team should be permanently situated at each site to follow up key risk areas and intervene if required. The assignment should be limited to a defined period, e.g. 1.5 to 2 years. If these measures are taken and appropriate budgets are provided, it can be assumed that plant performance and reliability will improve significantly.” 

“When it comes to budgets, it should be considered that the current unavailable capacity of about 17,419.5MW corresponds to financial losses of about R152-billion per year — not taking the cost of diesel into account. Against this background, even significant investments, e.g. for a life-time extension, will pay off within the short term.”

  VGBE Eskom Report by Ethan van Diemen on Scribd




In a media statement, National Treasury said that the assessment was conducted “as part of conditions attached to the R254-billion debt relief arrangement for Eskom and some of the findings will be incorporated into Eskom’s 2024/25 Corporate Plan.” 

“The scope of assessment comprised a review of the operational situation of the coal fleet, an assessment of the power plant maintenance budgets, a skill-level assessment of power plant personnel, as well as a transmission grid assessment.” 

It adds that the report reflects Eskom’s operational situation “during the period of the technical assessment, which is March to May 2023”. DM

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