East Africa and the Horn light the way for climate migrants

Regional cooperation and free movement are critical for handling climate-linked migration and displacement but are vastly underused. East Africa and the Horn — regions battered by climate change — have emerged as leaders in recognising their importance.

The Horn countries contribute 0.1% of global emissions but face their fourth consecutive failed rainy season, a climatic event not seen in 40 years. At least 36.1 million people have been affected by the drought, and 8.9 million livestock have died. Over 16 million people cannot access enough clean water, and 20.5 million face acute food insecurity and rising malnutrition in parts of Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya. More than a million people in Somalia have been displaced — mostly women and children.

Erratic rainfall patterns have caused drought in some parts of East Africa and the Horn and severe flash and riverine flooding in others, such as South Sudan, Uganda and Burundi. Since the start of the rainy season in May, floods in Sudan have damaged 238 health facilities and 1,500 water sources and washed away over 1,500 latrines. The 2021 South Sudan floods were described as the worst in 60 years. 

In April last year, Burundi declared a state of emergency when floods destroyed homes and crops and displaced thousands. In 2021, 2.6 million people were displaced in sub-Saharan Africa due to climate-related disasters. 

Climate change is a crucial driver of internal and cross-border migration and displacement. This is projected to increase as the adverse effects of climate change worsen. The World Bank predicts up to 85.7 million climate migrants in sub-Saharan Africa by 2050. Despite this, the international community has been slow to address the interrelatedness of climate change and migration. 

Things are changing, however, with climate and human mobility increasingly recognised in legal and policy frameworks at all levels in Africa. In July, countries making up the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) and the East African Community (EAC) signed the Kampala Ministerial Declaration on Migration, Climate Change & Environment. In 2020, Igad states adopted the Protocol on Free Movement of Persons in the Igad Region — the first to address people fleeing disasters and climate change specifically. 

The cross-sectoral nature of climate change and migration poses significant governance challenges. Because so many government departments are affected, no single policy or law has been developed to tackle climate-induced displacement. Instead, at least 50 policy frameworks and mechanisms on migration, climate change and disaster risk reduction address different parts of Africa’s climate change-mobility nexus.