Floyd Shivambu’s defection from the EFF to MK last week was one of SA’s big political shocks of the past few years, coming so suddenly and with so little warning.
It also points to a much bigger problem in our opposition politics concerning these two groupings.
Both parties revolve almost entirely around the personality of their leaders.
MK radiates the impression that it is all about former President Jacob Zuma. Its members and MPs have chanted “Zuma” many times.
The same is true for the EFF and its leader, Julius Malema. Just this week, his supporters chanted his name when he gave a speech in Orlando, Soweto.
While this has happened in the ANC before (particularly when Zuma was its leader), it is much rarer in other parties (one cannot think of a time when DA members have chanted the name of their leaders).
Some commentators have pointed out that Shivambu has organisational prowess, but this is the real problem that someone with his level of self-regard will have to overcome.
Political parties are often defined by the simple question of whether their leaders allow others in the party to develop and have their own constituencies.
Parties that are successful at this, including the ANC and the DA, often have to contend with internal friction. Much of the political reportage of the last 20 years in South Africa has focused on internal struggles in the ANC.
Despite that dynamic, the party’s structures have, in general, endured.
The parties that were formed by one strong leader to garner votes from one group of people have not done as well.
An obvious example is the IFP, which was led by Prince Mangosutho Buthelezi from 1975 until 2017. Even now, in its campaigns, it uses Buthelezi’s image.
It has been much commented on in these pages that the EFF has not allowed leaders to grow and develop within the party.
Irrational decision
Malema himself has said that he will not tolerate anyone challenging him for the position of leader. The comment, made last year, was probably also a warning to Shivambu.
Of course, while Shivambu is the current focus of the problems within the EFF, the real damage may have been caused by Malema’s irrational decision to fire those who did not supply enough people and buses for the party’s anniversary event at the FNB Stadium.
This saw 210 people who held public office being forced to leave their positions. They were replaced by other members, but very few parties can survive such a huge authoritarian shock.
While Malema may have thought it was worthwhile because he got to be elevated by a hydraulic platform at the FNB Stadium, there was always going to be a heavy price to pay.
Over at MK, Zuma has been no different. He has sacked many of his MPs, fired and rehired his secretary-general twice, and in the main refused to provide substantive reasons for his decisions.
While Shivambu may believe that he will make a difference, it is surely the case that Zuma will insist on keeping control.
Shivambu will also have to work with John Hlophe, who is still MK’s parliamentary leader. Hlophe has virtually no political or parliamentary experience and is used to issuing orders rather than persuading people to his point of view.
It is unlikely that Shivambu, Zuma and Hlophe will be able to work together harmoniously in the longer term.
For a start Zuma, known to have a long memory and to hold a grudge (particularly against President Cyril Ramaphosa), has surely not forgotten the role Shivambu played against him before he stepped down as president.
It could even be that Zuma’s real intention in convincing Shivambu to leave the EFF was to weaken Malema, such is the difficult history between them (the odd tea ceremony notwithstanding).
One of the major aspects of this situation is just how big the prize for good opposition politics is.
As the journalist Carol Paton wrote this week, if the coalition government fails to grow our economy, and if the lives of millions of people do not improve significantly, there will be millions of votes up for grabs. Because so many people who used to vote for the ANC have now changed their choice once (many of them voted for MK in KwaZulu-Natal in the last election), they are likely to be attracted by strong campaigning.
If the EFF and MK can form proper structures, manage themselves constructively, and crucially, campaign across the entire country, they could be hugely successful.
Proper oversight
The coalition government is made up of 10 parties, which collectively won more than 70% of the vote.
Apart from the MK and the EFF, the only opposition parties that can provide proper oversight are Bosa and ActionSA.
Important legislation is coming to Parliament soon that could allow the coalition parties to cement their success. In particular, this Parliament is due to pass new laws to govern SA’s voting system. Already, the ANC and the DA have shown they are prepared to work together to make it easier for them.
It was because of their actions that there were three ballot papers in the last election. They aimed to make it as hard as possible, within the confines of court rulings, for independent candidates to campaign against them.
Now, if there is no proper opposition, these parties may be able to pass into law a system that could work for them for generations.
Our politics is at a series of important inflection points. Much will still change and there may be more shocks to come.
But unless our two biggest opposition parties manage themselves properly, it will be easy for the parties in the coalition to abuse their position.
Much rests on whether Zuma and Malema can control their egos. DM