Equatorial Guinea — how not to rig, or observe an election in an era of fraudulent democracy

Equatorial Guinea’s president Teodoro Obiang Nguema has clearly not read Nic Cheeseman and Brian Klaas’s book How to Rig an Election, which “advises” leaders not to overcook their victories at the polls. 

Instead, the provisional results of the 20 November presidential, legislative and municipal elections show Obiang’s Democratic Party of Equatorial Guinea coalition took well over 90% of the vote in the Central African oil-rich state. The Convergence for Social Democracy of Andrés Esono Ondo is trailing with just 152 votes. In a population of fewer than two million, about 400, 000 registered voters placed their ballots.

Cheeseman and Klaas’s book, despite its tongue-in-cheek title, takes a serious look at fraudulent democracy worldwide — a problem that is widespread in Africa. The authors note that “while a comfortable win is desirable … it can demoralise political challengers while also persuading election monitors there is nothing worth investigating — a landslide victory often arouses suspicion.”

They quote Belarussian president Alexander Lukashenko — Russian president Vladimir Putin’s closest ally who has been in power since 1994 — speaking with astounding candour of his 2006 election victory. “I admitted that we rigged the election … I gave the order to change it from 93% to around 80% … because more than 90%, just psychologically, that is not well received.”

And Cheeseman told ISS Today this week: “As dictators and their advisers told us when we were researching our book … winning over 95% is ‘banana republic’-style manipulation. If you want it to be believable, you need to keep your vote share between 60% and 80%. Giving yourself 96% of the vote basically says you don’t care what people think — either domestically or internationally.”

Cheeseman also suggested that it might not have been a good idea, in these circumstances, for the African Union (AU) to have sent an election observer mission to Equatorial Guinea. “When regimes operate on that basis, international election observers are unlikely to be able to have a positive effect, so avoiding legitimating a bad process may be the best they can do.”

Obiang is Africa’s and the world’s longest-serving president. He has ruled the country with an iron fist for 43 years after toppling his uncle in a 1979 coup. And his landslide win does seem to show complete disregard for what anyone might think.

Rather paradoxically, he has been trying for the past several years, to present himself as a democrat who cares for his people. In reality, they remain mired in dire poverty despite the country having a GDP per capita of $11,264 in 2022, putting it 70th in the world, ahead of the likes of Mexico, Turkey and South Africa.

Significantly, Obiang himself asked the AU to send the observer mission. In 2014 he volunteered Equatorial Guinea for peer review under the African Peer Review Mechanism — an AU body that assesses member states’ governance. Revealingly though, he’s never been scrutinised by the nations participating in the mechanism.