Eskom marks 300 days without load shedding — for the first time since 2018

Eskom on Tuesday announced that South Africa had gone for 300 days without load shedding, reflecting the success of the Generation Recovery Plan launched in April 2023.

In a statement, Bheki Nxumalo, group executive for generation at Eskom, said: “These 300 days without load shedding have been characterised by a significant reduction in unplanned outages, which have long been one of the biggest challenges, a notable improvement in the energy availability factor of approximately 7% and savings in diesel expenditure of R16.42-billion.”

 

Eskom has announced several targets as it approaches one year free of load shedding. In the next 12 to 36 months, the utility aims to increase the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) to 70%. EAF measures what percentage of the time Eskom’s power plants are available to generate electricity after considering downtime for maintenance, unit losses, breakdowns and all other “unavailabilities”.

James Mackay, the CEO of the Energy Council and B4SA Energy workstream lead in the Government Business Partnership, told Daily Maverick that the developments bode well for South Africa’s economic growth prospects.

“South Africa’s achievement of 300 days without load shedding is a remarkable milestone, especially considering the challenging energy outlook predicted in early 2023, and should be widely celebrated.

“Many analysts predicted load shedding would continue to 2026/27, which would have been crippling to the economy and society. In April 2023, a media article projecting a declining load shedding outlook carried the headline: ‘Has South Africa run out of time on the doomsday clock?’ So it is really the speed of ending load shedding that has been remarkable, which talks to the success of the partnership and level of collaboration achieved,” he said.

“This success is also not just about uninterrupted electricity supply; it demonstrates what can be achieved through strong partnerships between government and business, and the impact that this has had on economic confidence.

“Key reforms have also been accelerated, with the ERA [Electricity Regulation Amendment Act] now making the market reform and unbundling a clear and legislated government commitment,” said Mackay.

“A key theme for the business engagement has been that positive sentiment creates growth, and when considering the accelerated reform agenda through the Presidential Energy Action Plan and Necom [National Energy Crisis Committee], significant improvement in investor confidence has also been achieved, as indicated by the rapid growth in private sector investment in renewable energy, which should deliver over 4GW of projects in 2025 and over 6GW in 2026.

“This represents a significant investment and highlights the changing sentiment and more positive outlook for South Africa. We can also see this through external parties, such as rating agencies and the World Bank, who have consistently improved the outlook for growth in SA.

“This achievement is only just the beginning. It provides a critical window of opportunity to accelerate South Africa’s energy transition, guided by clear policy reforms that demonstrate what is possible when policy and purpose align. In this regard, it is important to reference that the ERA amendment and climate change Bills are now signed into law and set a clear policy direction for fundamental reform and emissions reductions.”

His sentiments echoed recent pronouncements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Macroeconomic outlook

In a statement after its November 2024 visit to South Africa, the IMF said the country’s macroeconomic outlook was improving “following a challenging 2023 marked by power shortages and severe logistics disruptions. Real GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 1.1% this year and 1.5% in 2025, driven by recovering domestic demand supported by renewed post-election confidence and improved power generation.”

“Under the IMF baseline, growth is projected to reach 1.8% by the end of the decade, as investment recovers gradually on the back of ongoing electricity and logistics reform efforts.”

Regarding electricity, the IMF said, “Efforts should continue to develop the competitive wholesale electricity market, establish a fully independent transmission system operator and put in place regulatory frameworks for transmission and distribution.

“Expanding the transmission network is essential to allow connecting new renewable energy capacity to the grid. Private sector participation in transmission can be facilitated by advancing with planned independent power transmission projects, streamlining the regulatory framework and exploring innovative financing options to de-risk investments.

“Eskom’s financial viability must be bolstered by boosting operational efficiency, improving procurement processes and rationalising its wage bill, alongside efforts to recover municipal payment delays.”

The National Treasury responded to these recommendations, saying: “Priority will be given to continued restructuring of Eskom and to establishing a competitive energy market with adequate supply for a growing economy.

“The cumulative effects of reforms include improved power station performance and no load shedding since 26 March 2024.” DM