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Eskom offers signs of hope that the power crisis has turned a corner

Eskom offers signs of hope that the power crisis has turned a corner
Victoria O’Regan
By Victoria O’Regan
29 Apr 2024
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A month before South Africa’s general election, Eskom’s vital signs look good. Has the power utility cleaned up its act with the polls in mind, or are the reforms finally showing positive signs?

How has Eskom drastically managed to reduce the intensity of power cuts from Stage 2 and 3 in March 2024 to keeping lights on throughout April?

The state-owned entity has touted improvements in its fleet of ageing power stations spurred by the Energy Action Plan and the generation recovery plan as reasons why the lights are on. But renewables and a decline in demand seemed to have contributed to 33 consecutive days without power cuts.

This comes amid claims from opposition parties and sceptics that the streak of no load shedding is an election strategy by the ruling ANC. 

On Monday, 29 April, Presidency spokesperson Vincent Magwenya said the Presidency rejected “the claims that recent improvements in the energy supply are a ploy related to the upcoming elections”.

Eskom’s top brass proffered the power utility’s winter outlook in a media briefing on Friday. The presentation by new Eskom group CEO Dan Marokane and the company’s head of generation, Bheki Nxumalo, appeared to show the power utility has made significant progress in the past year. 

“We recognise that what really transpired here is a culmination of interventions started a year ago… It is important that we build on it,” said Marokane.

On the face of it, this winter looks like it could be brighter than the winter of 2023.

Eskom anticipates limiting load shedding to Stage 2, with unplanned outages expected to range from 14,000MW to 15,500MW. If this scenario happens, the power utility expects South Africa will experience, at most, about 50 days without power between now and 31 August.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Eskom forecasts ‘light’ load shedding in winter after 30-day break from rolling blackouts

Last winter, South Africans were in the dark for 153 days between 1 April and 31 August, experiencing Stage 3, 4 and 6 rotational power cuts.


Energy availability factor


While Eskom has recorded improvements in unplanned breakdowns, its energy availability factor (EAF) falls short of the target set in its recovery plan. 

EAF measures the average percentage of electricity that power stations have available to dispatch energy at any one time. A high EAF indicates that Eskom’s power stations are being maintained and are operating well.

Eskom board chairperson Mteto Nyati – a former MTN South Africa and Altron CEO who was appointed chair after Mpho Makwana’s resignation in October 2023 – said the power utility had a target of 65% EAF that was set by the board for end-March 2024, which it failed to meet.

“We did not meet that. We’re currently sitting with an EAF of 61%, which is slightly less than what we had targeted,” he said.

However, contrary to his statements, publicly available Eskom data indicates the monthly EAF has not yet reached 60% but stands at 58.3% for April.

Nyati said Eskom aims to improve the EAF to 70% in March 2025.

Breakdowns


“Between April 2023 and March this year, the reliability of our power plants has improved and this is as we continue with the execution of the generation recovery plan… We saw a year-on-year improvement of 9% in unplanned losses and a 19% decline in unit trips – the latter is very important because it deals with the reliability of the fleet,” said Marokane.

This March, Eskom experienced slightly fewer unplanned losses than in March 2023 (31.8% in March 2024 compared with 34.5% in March 2023). This is the same trend when one compares unplanned losses in April 2024 (29.8%) with April 2023 when breakdowns were at 34.7%.

This past week the percentage of unplanned losses dropped to 28.6% from 33.2% at the beginning of March. Let’s not forget that the cooler weather traditionally bodes well for Eskom’s fleet of power stations, as Daily Maverick’s Ray Mahlaka reported. But overall, unplanned breakdowns are lower in March and April 2024 compared with the same period last year.

“I do think it is a notable and commendable achievement by Eskom that unplanned breakdowns are stable this year at levels that are consistently lower than those of last year, and that the energy availability factor has steadied, and not reduced further along the same downward trend as for the last five years and more,” energy analyst Chris Yelland wrote on X. 

 


Dwindling demand


While Marokane said the improvement in generation performance contributed to the reduction in load shedding, he acknowledged that “demand is also declining slightly”.

Data published by Eskom shows a decline in weekly peak demand for Eskom grid power this year, compared with last year. 

A continued decline in demand for Eskom grid power is the reason behind the streak of no load shedding, Yelland penned in a recent op-ed. 

Yelland says this is because of, among other things, South Africa’s weak economy and the resulting generally flat overall demand for power, the increasing cost of Eskom power, load shedding, and the move to alternative energy sources by Eskom customers.

The power of renewables


Also helping to improve the electricity situation is the contribution of solar power. Eskom system operator Isabel Fick said private solar photovoltaic (PV) was making “a huge contribution” to Eskom’s electricity generation profile.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Renewable energy projects may keep the lights on longer in 2024 — we hope

Fick said there were around 11,870MW of installed renewable contributions in the country. Of that, an estimated 2,800MW of PV solar is connected directly to the Eskom grid, with another 5,440MW of “behind-the-meter” PV solar, which Fick says “would refer to rooftop PV, as well as small plants that are not connected to the Eskom system.”

Fick said that while solar power was the biggest part of private generation, it could contribute only between 9am and 3pm, leaving Eskom to pick up in the morning and evening peak demand hours. 

“It means that this contribution is not available for peak periods,” said Fick. 

If Eskom faces higher electricity demand, mostly during the evening peaks, it burns diesel to run its open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs). The contribution of solar power has meant that Eskom can replenish its emergency reserves, like the OCGTs and pumped storage dams during the day, for use during peak periods.

“The usage of the OCGTs is now limited to the peak periods because we have these contributions during the daytime,” she said.

Fick said that when the country experienced inclement weather, Eskom was forced to lean more heavily on its emergency reserves.

Diesel consumption 


Marokane said the reduction in load shedding was not because the power utility was burning more diesel to run its OCGTs. Rather, compared with April 2023, Eskom had spent 50% less on diesel in April 2024.

In a recent parliamentary reply, Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan revealed that Eskom spent R23.4-billion on diesel in the 2023/24 financial year. 

The DA had said the burning of diesel had “remained elevated” since 31 March 2024, “creating an illusion of improved electricity supply.” 

However, the power utility’s diesel spend actually decreased between March and April 2024.

From 1 to 22 April 2024, while load shedding was suspended, Eskom spent R1.4-billion on diesel to run its OGCTs, compared with R3.1-billion in April 2023. 

The OCGTs generated 198 gigawatt hours (GWh) of energy between 1 and 28 April 2024, compared with 470GWh generated in April last year.

However, Eskom spent R3.3-billion on diesel in March 2024, which had 26 days of load shedding. This is R1.2-billion more than it spent on diesel in March 2023, which had 30 days of load shedding. DM

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