Eskom predicts blackout-free spring and summer on back of improved power station performance

Eskom CEO Dan Marokane briefs the media on his 100 days in office at Megawatt Park on June 14, 2024 in Johannesburg, South Africa. Marokane reflected on his first 100 days in office as Eskom CEO and the direction Eskom is taking under his leadership. (Photo: Gallo Images/Sharon Seretlo)

By Ray Mahlaka

26 Aug 2024

Eskom management and its board are so encouraged by the improved performance of power stations that they have set a target of the Energy Availability Factor reaching 70% by the financial year 2025.

Eskom has forecast a spring and summer without blackouts, as has been the case over the past four months, and set itself a new target of improving the performance of its power stations next year to levels last seen in 2019.

Eskom CEO Dan Marokane and generation executive Bheki Nxumalo provided an update on the power system on Monday, 26 August, when the pair forecast a scenario of no blackouts from 1 September 2024 to beyond March 2025. This scenario will depend on the performance of Eskom’s power stations and if unplanned losses/breakdowns are kept below 13,000MW. If breakdowns exceed this level, Marokane and Nxumalo have proffered a worst-case scenario of reinstating blackouts, up to stage two.

“If we keep the unplanned losses below 13,000MW, we should be having a load-shedding-free summer. At worst, we anticipate that in the unlikely event that the escalation of unplanned losses reaches up to 15,500MW, we will, at most, experience stage two [blackouts],” said Marokane, who began the top job at Eskom on 1 March 2024.

Read more: Can new Eskom CEO Dan Marokane fix broken power utility mired in corruption?

In the four months that Eskom has kept the lights on, the power utility has held unplanned losses at around 12,000MW, which is about 3,500MW better than the breakdowns of 15,500MW that it had previously forecast.

Eskom CEO Dan Marokane briefs the media on his 100 days in office at Megawatt Park on June 14, 2024 in Johannesburg, South Africa. (Photo: Gallo Images/Sharon Seretlo)

Eskom has relied less on burning diesel to keep the lights on. Marokane said Eskom had seen a reduction in diesel spend to run Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs) by more than R10-billion. The R10-billion lower expenditure on diesel is measured from 1 April 2024 to 15 August 2024, compared with the same period last year.

Diesel is used for powering the OCGTs at Ankerlig and Gourikwa, which have a combined energy generation capacity of 2,000MW, which is equivalent to two stages of rolling blackouts. At the height of higher blackout stages, Eskom was spending at least R3-billion a month on diesel.

New targets set

At Eskom, there is a renewed focus on monitoring the performance of power stations, addressing breakdowns when they occur, and outside of the power utility, the renewable energy movement has taken hold — factors that have all contributed to keeping the lights on for 152 days.

Eskom management and its board are so encouraged by the improved performance of power stations that they have set a new target for the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) to reach 70% by the financial year 2025.

An EAF is the main metric for assessing the performance of the power utility’s 14 power stations. An EAF refers to the average percentage of power stations available to dispatch energy at any one time. A higher EAF indicates that Eskom’s power stations are performing well and also lowers the probability of higher blackout stages.

By August 2023, Eskom struggled to keep the lights on as breakdowns at its power stations became a norm, which led to blackouts. At the time, Eskom’s EAF languished at 55.41% but has since improved to an average of 67.02%. This has prompted Eskom management and the board to set an EAF target of 70% for the next financial year — EAF levels last achieved in 2019.

When former Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan appointed the Eskom board — chaired by Mteto Nyati — in October 2023, he handed it the challenge of the EAF reaching 65%. The board has now exceeded this target.

Eskom is betting on the 2,500MW that will be generated in the next few months, owing to the return of some generating units at its power stations. Marokane said the 2,500MW of new generation capacity should be added to the electricity system and reserves— from Medupi Unit 4, Kusile, Unit 6, and Koeberg Unit 2.

Although Eskom is reporting improvements in its operations, its financial situation is still troubled. Marokane said Eskom was still facing the challenge of getting municipalities to pay electricity debt.

Read more: Eskom posts record R23.9bn financial loss

Eskom is also not generating enough revenue from electricity sales, a situation that the power utility is using to motivate for another electricity tariff increase.

Daily Maverick recently reported that Eskom asked the energy regulator, the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa), for an electricity tariff increase of 36.15% in 2025 for customers it directly charges and supplies. If approved, the increase would be implemented from 1 April 2025. Customers relying on electricity supply from local authorities (municipalities) would also be hit hard as Eskom is considering increases of 43.55%.

Read more: Eskom wants an increase in electricity tariffs of up to 44% next year

Eskom CFO Calib Cassim, who also attended the update on the power system on Monday, has confirmed that Eskom submitted its application to Nersa for tariff increases, without providing/confirming the percentage increases. Cassim said Eskom and Nersa would soon unveil Eskom’s tariff application, which is also subject to public consultation. DM

Categories:

Business Maverick

Tags:

DM is much better if you are signed in...

Business Maverick

New targets set