Eskom fleet’s winter performance ‘exceeding even our own expectations’ — electricity minister

At the briefing, Ramokgopa heaped praise on Eskom group executive for generation Bheki Nxumalo and other members of the executive, as he announced that the utility’s energy availability factor (EAF) was “exceeding even our own numbers”. 

The minister was saying that the percentage of time that electricity was available as required had increased to more than 15% above the same levels for this time last year, going far beyond what anyone on the team had expected to be possible in the middle of winter when peak electricity demand rises significantly.    

Speaking about what he called the “stellar performance of the grid”, Ramokgopa said “the numbers are far exceeding even our own expectations and projections of where we thought we will be this time of the year in the journey to recovery”. 

“We are getting closer to the resolution of the energy deficit.”

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Ramokgopa shared some details. “Over the past week, what we have seen as a trend, and it appears to be sustained now… Eskom has averaged 70% of the EAF.” He emphasised that this was just for the past week and that the EAF year to date is 62%. 

Eskom explains that the EAF is “the difference between the maximum availability and all unavailabilities” – planned capability loss factor, unplanned capability loss factor and other capability loss factor – “expressed as a percentage”.   

“I think at the same period last year, we were sitting at about 55% EAF and if you look at where we are, there’s a 15-percentage-point increase from where we were in the similar period of last year,” the minister said. 

He also said that on 23 July, for the first time in six years, Eskom’s fleet had an availability of more than 35,000 megawatts. Ramakgopa also noted that 89 of the more than 120 load shedding-free days have been during winter, when demand for electricity typically peaks. 

Read more: Eskom news

He said that while things are improving on the generation front, the distribution of electricity is increasingly proving to be problematic, undermining their ability to achieve universal access. 

The minister referred to the three elements of universal access as access, availability and affordability. 

“Mr Nxumalo has helped us resolve one part [dimension] of availability. So by availability I mean when you get to your house you want to switch on an electric kettle, you want to switch on the light – the lights are on,” Ramakgopa explained. If that doesn’t happen, it is because demand is exceeding generation and load shedding is implemented. 

The second dimension of availability is load reduction. “This has to do… with the capacity of the distribution infrastructure, be it substations or transformers that can’t carry the load that is placed on them because that load is exceeding the notifiable maximum demand.” 

This came about because of the “proliferation of informality”, illegal connections and the lack of maintenance and protection of distribution assets. 

“But for the end consumer the net result is the same” and the impacts are felt mostly in poorer areas, said the minister, adding that “the multidimensional measure of inequality is taking another form”. 

Read more: While load shedding may be a thing of the past, blackouts still hit many consumers

The third element of universal access deals with affordability. “So, there’s been an exponential rise in the cost of electricity. So the electricity pricing plan needs to kick in and that’s the primary preoccupation of the work of the ministry now, working with Mr Bala from the Eskom side, the distribution side, working with municipalities and also by definition working with the Salga [South African Local Government Association].” 

Daily Maverick previously reported that Eskom will ask the National Energy Regulator of South Africa for an electricity tariff increase of 36.15% in 2025 for customers it directly charges and supplies. Customers relying on electricity supply from local authorities (municipalities) could also be slapped with an increase of 43.55%. DM

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