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Eskom’s ability to provide power is steadily worsening, CSIR stats show

Eskom’s ability to provide power is steadily worsening, CSIR stats show
Victoria O’Regan
By Victoria O’Regan
22 Feb 2023
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Annual statistics, released by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research on Tuesday, paint a grim picture of the reliability of Eskom’s ailing infrastructure.

‘I think the government, and specifically Eskom, have been quite transparent and open about the fact that we’re in an energy crisis. I think [what] hasn’t been [communicated] quite as well, is that the crisis is actually worsening.” These are the words of Warrick Pierce, principal researcher at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) energy centre, who was speaking at a briefing on Tuesday.

The CSIR has released its annual statistics on power generation and energy availability data for 2022.

Read more in Daily Maverick: “Government comes to Eskom’s rescue by taking over R254bn of its debt”

On Sunday evening, a combination of coal constraints and a failure of eight generation units triggered the implementation of Stage 6 load shedding for the fourth time this year.

Eskom cut 7,045MW from the grid as its fleet of coal-fired power stations teetered, Eskom spokesperson Sikonathi Mantshantsha said in a tweet on Tuesday night. He confirmed that the intensity of power cuts had increased to Stage 7, Bloomberg reported.




The graphic on the levels of planned maintenance and unplanned outages (see below) in years past, shows a shift from similar levels of planned maintenance and unplanned outages in 2018, towards increasing levels of unplanned maintenance as years progress.

“The planned maintenance is remaining roughly the same… But we’re seeing a concerning trend with the unplanned outages. Our unplanned outages (breakdowns) are increasing,” said Pierce.

He explained that 2021 showed a distinct separation of planned maintenance and breakdowns as breakdowns continue to increase – a trend that was seen in 2022.



Last year was by far the most intensive load shedding year on record. South Africans suffered 3,773 hours of blackouts in 2022, compared to 1,169 hours in 2021, Pierce’s presentation showed.

Last year, 11,529 gigawatt-hours of power was shed, in comparison to 2,521 in 2021.

The number of hours of Stage 6 load shedding experienced in 2022 also exceeded 2019’s hours of Stage 6 blackouts by more than a factor of 30. 

Another point of concern, said Pierce, was that 2022 was the first year where the most prevalent load shedding stage was Stage 4, and not Stage 2. 

 

Between July and September 2022, more load shedding was experienced than in any previous year. 

Additionally, in December 2022 – when a combination of breakdowns and Eskom running out of money to purchase diesel for its emergency generation fleet pushed load shedding to higher stages – the country experienced more load shedding than it had during the whole of 2020.

In the second half of last year – from July to December – more than 80% of the year’s load shedding occurred, according to Pierce.

 

Pierce said that while there were enough megawatts online to supply energy, the availability of Eskom’s coal fleet has been significantly reduced since June 2022.

In 2018, Eskom had an annual average energy availability factor (EAF) – Eskom’s power generation fleet that is available relative to its installed capacity – of 71.8%. Eskom’s annual average EAF has continued to deteriorate and hit a record low of 58.1% in 2022.

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In December last year, the power utility’s weekly average EAF dropped to below 50% for the first time, said Pierce.

“This mainly has to do with an increase in unplanned outages,” said Pierce. 

“If our EAF was in the area of about 75%-80%, where it’s previously been, we would not necessarily be in an electricity crisis.”

In 2018, Eskom told the government it could get the EAF back up to 75% by 2023. Breakdowns and planned maintenance have reduced the current EAF to 53%, News24 reported earlier this month.

Implications for water supply


One of the biggest casualties of protracted and increased power cuts has been South Africa’s water-processing and supply networks, said CSIR senior civil engineer, Odwa Badi.

Read more in Daily Maverick: “Power cuts in South Africa are playing havoc with the country’s water system”

“Load shedding is having a negative effect on our [water] infrastructure, because our infrastructure, usually, would have to work in a static condition where supply is sustained and constant. When you have an on-and-off effect, that does deteriorate the infrastructure to a certain extent,” said Badi.

Badi said that because much of the country’s water distribution infrastructure had been poorly maintained, load shedding exacerbated the degeneration of infrastructure. DM

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