Experts welcome matric pass rate increase but note 450,000 learners dropped out

Reacting to the release of the 2023 matric results, education experts and civil society groups noted several improvements, especially in provinces that have struggled because of socioeconomic challenges, but said it was concerning that more than 450,000 learners who started Grade 1 with last year’s cohort of matrics didn’t make it to Grade 12.

Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga released the 2023 National Senior Certificate (NSC) results on Thursday in Johannesburg. The class of 2023 achieved a pass rate of 82.9%, up from 80.1% in 2022 and 76.4% in 2021.

Motshekga said, “When the class of 2023 enrolled for Grade 1 in 2012, they were 1.2 million. The [Department of Basic Education] database shows that 740,566 progressed from Grade 1 in 2012 to Grade 12 in 2023. This was the number of candidates that enrolled for the 2023 NSC exams in July 2023. However, in October 2023, 715,719 candidates enrolled for the 2023 NSC exams.”

Read more in Daily Maverick: Matric class of 2023 beats the odds with record 82.9% pass rate — Angie Motshekga

Kristal Duncan-Williams, the project lead at Youth Capital, a campaign advocating for evidence-based solutions to youth unemployment, said, “Our matric pass rate should be celebrated because we know that young people face many systemic challenges on their journey from Grade 1 to Grade 12, and the fact that they make it despite these challenges in an education system where in many provinces fails them.”

She pointed out that around 40% of those who started Grade 1 in 2012 hadn’t enrolled for the 2023 NSC exams.

“Young people are missing from this picture; what happened to the other 40%? What support would they have needed to complete? And for those who didn’t make it to write or those that didn’t pass now, what is in place for them?”

Duncan-Williams said there was a need to create monitoring systems that can detect potential dropouts and prevent scholars from dropping out. She said providing psychosocial and academic support to pupils detected through these monitoring systems would keep learners engaged and re-engage those who had fallen through the cracks.

Motshekga briefly addressed the issue in her speech.

“These days, children repeat less, are less likely to be in school into their twenties, but most important of all, they are much more likely to successfully complete a National Senior Certificate, or an equivalent qualification. We, therefore, can confidently conclude that, over the years, we are steadily improving learner retention and the throughput ratio in the system,” she said.

Merle Mansfield, the programme director for the Zero Dropout Campaign, said, “We note the 2% pass rate increase and congratulate the class of 2023. However, this year there was once again a drastic decline in the number of learners enrolled between the matriculating classes starting Grade 1 and progression through the schooling system. The class of 2023 also had approximately 40,000 fewer learners enrolled in matric than the previous year’s cohort. 

 “Unfortunately, the DBE only alluded to the throughput rate in their announcement, so until they are more candid with the public about the state of throughput and dropout, we cannot know whether 2023 was an anomaly, something to celebrate or the beginning of a new worrying trend.”  



Read more in Daily Maverick: Matric dropouts — Department of Basic Education doth protest too much

The DA’s shadow minister of basic education, Baxolile Nodada, claimed in a statement, “The real matric pass rate is only 55.3%, an increase from last year’s 54.6%.”

Nodada said the “real pass rate” should factor in learners who dropped out after Grade 9.

“While some learners pursue their matric through technical and vocational education and training (TVET) after Grade 9, a large number drop out completely. To bring the TVET learners into account, the DA calculates the real matric pass rate from the Grade 10 cohort that ought to have completed matric; 345,626 learners dropped out between Grade 10 in 2021 and Grade 12 in 2023.”

Significant improvement

Concerns over irregularities